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Bob Chill

1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat

956 posts in this topic

Onset is in 72 hours. Midlevels have trended even colder on the 12z gfs. Ops seem locked in with some sort of mix of wintry precip through much of the area. 

Many of us could stay below freezing all day on Sat. Especially the northern tier. It may be a light event but the duration looks unusually long. Could be the biggest event of the year for many of us. That isn't really saying much though. LOL

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS soundings from 69-78 are snow at DCA... 81 is sleet

The column has trended better for once. We're pretty close to the event and getting ticks colder at the surface and midlevels is pretty encouraging. 

GFS is a little drier than 6z through 18z sat but probably noise in the big picture. The folks out near the blue ridge could do half decent in the snowfall dept if the initial slug of precip gets juicier. Not much of a fight with dry air at all this time.

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Onset is in 72 hours. Midlevels have trended even colder on the 12z gfs. Ops seem locked in with some sort of mix of wintry precip through much of the area. 

Many of us could stay below freezing all day on Sat. Especially the northern tier. It may be a light event but the duration looks unusually long. Could be the biggest event of the year for many of us. That isn't really saying much though. LOL

My guess is the GFS surface will trend to more in line with the NAM and last night's Euro. 

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

My guess is the GFS surface will trend to more in line with the NAM and last night's Euro. 

Seems to be a common theme so far this winter. NAM was pretty cold at the surface. Especially compared to the GFS. Wedge holding firm even through 0z Sun. I started off thinking the euro was too cold but it hasn't budged at all for the most part. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Seems to be a common theme so far this winter. NAM was pretty cold at the surface. Especially compared to the GFS. Wedge holding firm even through 0z Sun. I started off thinking the euro was too cold but it hasn't budged at all for the most part. 

Were the accumulations on the 0z Euro similar to the 12z GFS?

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

1-11-1712zGFSsnowaccumulation.png

I could see just west of Baltimore doing pretty decent with this.. Maybe 2-3 snow/sleet combo. Not out of the question for points west of the city to have a nice wintry day Sunday. Maybe city too but that UHI I feel like always trips them up in these marginal setups

Its good to see the 6z gfs improving mid levels. Hope trend continues because we all know with a setup like this it's about maximizing your time before the inevitable pingers...

I like the look.. Big high over Montreal pushing down with flow pushing straight out of the west... We have a tendency to maximize these types of setups now and again

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1 minute ago, bigjohndc said:

Were the accumulations on the 0z Euro similar to the 12z GFS?


Euro was better. Almost all of MD was 2"+ with a 2.5-3" stripe right through the middle (northern moco, all of howard, most of frederick, and southern carroll/balt. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

HAHAHAH

The Chill Storm v2

I haven't started a thread all year. This one seemed like the lowest hanging fruit so far though so I jumped at it. LOL

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Soundings @ 18z Sat for the gfs and nam. Both are walking the line above 850mb but the nam is significantly colder at the surface. Prob an IP sounding on the NAM?18zsatgfs.JPG18zsatnam.JPG

 

 

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Question:  We sometimes see the CAD  trend better as we get closer.  Would that mean the axis of heavier precipitation would trend south as well, or is it just low level cold pressing further south?

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As much as this winter has sucked for my part of Baltimore (and for down to DC and the like), it would be kinda cool to score a small event in the middle of the extended torch that we are beginning.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I haven't started a thread all year. This one seemed like the lowest hanging fruit so far though so I jumped at it. LOL

Not making fun.  Just remembering good times.  I hope it's a home run.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Soundings @ 18z Sat for the gfs and nam. Both are walking the line above 850mb but the nam is significantly colder at the surface. Prob an IP sounding on the NAM?18zsatgfs.JPG18zsatnam.JPG

 

 

Yes, NAM at 18z SAT is a sleet sounding

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Question:  We sometimes see the CAD  trend better as we get closer.  Would that mean the axis of heavier precipitation would trend south as well, or is it just low level cold pressing further south?

From what I can tell, the forcing for the precip is on the trailing mid level boundary and not the surface front but yes, is definitely seems the further south the 850 line presses, the further south the precip max is. It's a pretty weak wedge though even with the strong hp. The good thing is that the surface flow doesn't back southerly until after 18z Sat. Whatever cold presses in won't run away like a scared puppy. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Soundings @ 18z Sat for the gfs and nam. Both are walking the line above 850mb but the nam is significantly colder at the surface. Prob an IP sounding on the NAM?18zsatgfs.JPG18zsatnam.JPG

 

 

I think that gfs sounding would be snow

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think that gfs sounding would be snow

Probably. Good sign for locations further north. Especially if the GFS is too warm. I'm hugging the euro until another model gives me more snow. 

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Question:  We sometimes see the CAD  trend better as we get closer.  Would that mean the axis of heavier precipitation would trend south as well, or is it just low level cold pressing further south?

I'd say it's just the cold.  Someone else might chime in here, but IMO you're talking about separate entities unless you're talking about 100 miles or something.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I haven't started a thread all year. This one seemed like the lowest hanging fruit so far though so I jumped at it. LOL

Really? I thought you had...

 

thred.jpg

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