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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion

TauntonBlizzard2013

By TauntonBlizzard2013,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Wow i can't believe how low the NWS is going for CT both box and okx. Those numbers and WSWs will likely have to be expanded tonight or early tomorrow.

Yeah it's odd. The NWS almost always is higher than what I have - sometimes by a factor of 2 - but today they seem really low. Almost like playing catchup. 

 

This is our forecast.

C1g18zFW8AAuawP.jpg

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, radarman said:

Tough call on advys back here in advyland.  I'm pretty confident we can pull 3".

Yeah probably...the only thing I worry about once west of ORH county is choking on dry air advecting down the CT Valley. That could try and chew up the precip shield in that area, though I think there will probably be enough surge in the mid-levels to the NW in mid/late afternoon to overcome that.

 

Might be a bigger issue more up toward the VT border.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Wow i can't believe how low the NWS is going for CT both box and okx. Those numbers and WSWs will likely have to be expanded tonight or early tomorrow.

I was shocked to see them lower the number from earlier here between Waterbury and Danbury....we had more here this morning in 2 hours?

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah probably...the only thing I worry about once west of ORH county is choking on dry air advecting down the CT Valley. That could try and chew up the precip shield in that area, though I think there will probably be enough surge in the mid-levels to the NW in mid/late afternoon to overcome that.

Can envision more small flakes like today, like Jan 2015, and like so many others... So that's not going to help totals...  But maybe a brief heavier band, and also not ruling out some remnant IVT like convergence snows in the valley proper as the ULL starts to approach.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah probably...the only thing I worry about once west of ORH county is choking on dry air advecting down the CT Valley. That could try and chew up the precip shield in that area, though I think there will probably be enough surge in the mid-levels to the NW in mid/late afternoon to overcome that.

 

Might be a bigger issue more up toward the VT border.

I didn't see a big signal for a CT River Valley hose job down here with the low level dry advection. Maybe farther north though.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
Just now, dryslot said:

RGEM running late

that may be a good sign - haha...   When we were up at UML as undergrads we found a correlation existed between annoyingly late governmentally released products compared to what said products were going to contain - 

probably coincidence in the numbers...but it seemed to work out remarkably well - 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Enjoy it guys. Looks like I'll be on the fringe down here. SE VA and NC look to get pummeled. 

 

My sister lives in "HOLY SCHIT REPENT THE WRATH OF GOD 1-3" " Va Beach country.

1-3" can literally cripple that city ...  

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

BOX 3pm disco. 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

*/ Highlights...

 - Winter Storm Warnings for E-coastal and SE Mass, including
   Cape Cod and the Islands, as well as all of RI and Block Island

 - Winter Weather Advisories for NE CT and E-Central MA

 - Widespread fluffy snow developing Saturday morning, becoming
   intense with time, at its height Saturday afternoon into
   evening before tapering overnight

 - Near-blizzard conditions for Coastal Plymouth County MA, Cape
   Cod and the Islands

*/ Overview...

Forecast guidance has become a bit wetter, especially across areas
of SE New England, with a slight nudge noted in some of the model
solutions N/W towards the 40N/70W benchmark. Agree with the previous
forecaster...given the synoptic forcing (discussed below) of the
amplifying pattern, would want to draw the storm more N/W towards
the lower heights aloft and introduce a more amplified S stream of
moisture. Increasing baroclinicity, stronger cyclogenesis, boom.

In summary...dealing with a widespread snow event developing during
the morning hours Saturday, the height of which will be Saturday
afternoon into evening before tapering off Saturday night with some
ocean effect snows lingering over the Cape and Islands. Heavy snow
at times, blowing and drifting as well. Visibility dropping to a
quarter mile or less at times, especially across SE coastal MA
where near-blizzard conditions are forecast.

*/ Discussion...

Synoptically...elongated H5 trough undergoes a neutral tilt with a
potent shortwave cyclonically digging through the base drawing S-
stream sub-tropical energy N from the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
reflection of low pressure emerges out of the Gulf deepening SW to
NE a couple of degrees S/E of the 40N/70W benchmark, impacting S New
England particularly Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening
with warning-level moderate to heavy snow.

Digging further along with an enhancement of a SW-NE upper level jet
with strong divergence within the right rear quadrant, looking at a
pronounced area of QG-forcing emerging out of the lower MS valley
transitioning NE into S New England along the leading edge of the
cyclonic vort-max by late afternoon Saturday into Saturday evening.
Well-defined SW-NE low to mid level frontogenesis evolves with the
isentropic draw of the warm-moist conveyor belt up against colder
air digging out of Canada, collocated with potential instability
(believing the 06.12z high-res NAM/WRF) and -EPV in favorable areas
of snow growth. This supports the likelihood of developing snow
banding signatures with snowfall rates at or in excess of 1 inch an
hour given the saturated column up through H5 through which lift and
forcing becomes pronounced ahead of stout dynamics discussed above.
Not so much confident on the possibility of thundersnow.

Add this to the low level environment in where H85 temperatures are
forecast to hover around -12C with ocean sea-surface temperatures
around +8C, a difference of roughly 20C, as cyclogenesis is ongoing
offshore enhancing the boundary-layer wind profile. An unstable
environment with steep lapse rates on up to H8 through which there
is a blustery NE flow with the potential for gusts up to 40 mph,
dependent on proximity of the H85-surface low to S New England and
how quickly it deepens. The onshore warmer flow crashing up against
colder air across the interior, looking at ocean-fetch enhancement
converging along a forecast coastal front. So in addition to the
mid to upper level synoptics, there is also the likelihood localized
moist convergence / frontogenesis closer to the surface off the waters.

Game plan...So evaluating the forecast guidance, both global models
and high-res guidance, we`ll follow closely with high-res guidance,
particularly the WRF models, with regards to 2m temperatures and
dewpoints, as well as the winds, acknowledging the presence of the
coastal front with gusty onshore flow given an unstable boundary-
layer. Meanwhile going with a global / high-res blend of PoP and
precipitation amounts so that we don`t lean heavily on one side of
the envelope, but still acknowledging the a tight gradient that
will likely reside over SE New England with the coastal front, more
specifically roughly N-S through the heart of Plymouth County MA.
Also want to go slightly wetter than the previous forecast.

Snowfall...Considering snow ratios around 15:1 to 20:1, looking at
advisory level snow stretching from NE MA down through Northeast CT
with warning level snows along around around, as well as S/E, of the
I-95 corridor with amounts a foot-plus for Plymouth County, Cape Cod
and the Islands (excluding Block Island) with the aforementioned
ocean effect enhancement. Coupled with forecast blustery NE winds,
expecting blowing and drifting snow given the expected fluffiness,
especially along the E/SE coastline. Have added blowing snow where
NE winds gust at or in excess of 25 mph. There is some concern of
blizzard conditions along the immediate SE MA coast. Evaluating the
high-res guidance, believe the stronger of the winds will follow the
storm as snow tapers off, not during. A marginal scenario it would
appear, will highlight the near-blizzard conditions in the headlines
which are discussed below.

Headlines...Winter Storm Warnings for E-coastal and SE Mass which
includes Cape Cod and the Islands, all of Rhode Island including
Block Island. Winter Weather Advisories for NE CT and E-Central MA.

Takeaways...Always be prepared and situationally aware. Stay tuned
to the latest forecasts. Untreated roads will become snow covered
and slick. Visibility will be reduced down to a quarter or a mile or
less at times, especially for coastal SE Mass. Travel will become
hazardous as snow becomes heavy at times along with gusty NE winds
resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow with near white-
out conditions. Exercise caution if you have to be out on the roads,
and give your-self plenty of time to get to your destination.
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