ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: RGEM snow map: And based on the ML look, you can probably double those amounts over central areas of SNE on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: And based on the ML look, you can probably double those amounts over central areas of SNE on that run. 6-12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: And based on the ML look, you can probably double those amounts over central areas of SNE on that run. Yeah that's a 10:1 ratio map, too. You double the ratio and you double the snowfall. Someone gets a 20:1 deform band in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Will the RGEM snowfall map doesn't seem right, if the 2-4" amounts are so far west, why is the 24"+ amounts so far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 6-12"? Probably not an unreasonable guess for your area up through ORH from what I'm seeing. The best banding may actually be west of you now though. Hints of western CT up through CT Valley of Mass type band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 6-12"? Yeah maybe...not sure I'd go 12, but 6-10 might be decent for ORH down to eastern half of CT....I'd want to see one more good model suite at 00z though to pull the trigger on that...right now I'd prob keep it at 4-8" or so. But I'm def thinking higher than I did 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Take take West West West amp amp amp and it still doesn't look any better in New Hampshire. Waaaaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Take take West West West amp amp amp and it still doesn't look any better in New Hampshire. Waaaaaaa SNE knows how to get hit with coastal storms. Us in NNE haven't figured it out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will the RGEM snowfall map doesn't seem right, if the 2-4" amounts are so far west, why is the 24"+ amounts so far east? Its because that's where it prints the QPF. It has about 0.9-1.2" for your area for storm total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah maybe...not sure I'd go 12, but 6-10 might be decent for ORH down to eastern half of CT....I'd want to see one more good model suite at 00z though to pull the trigger on that...right now I'd prob keep it at 4-8" or so. But I'm def thinking higher than I did 6 hours ago. Pretty freaking awesome stuff man. What turn of events. Should be a deep powder pack to try and thwart the torch next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we got 8" here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: RGEM snow map: 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow, RGEM is way west at 24 hours...gonna be a huge hit for a lot of peeps. Depicts the brutal exhaust cut off near me that I've been hammering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we got 8" here lol The weenie is out and straight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Probably not an unreasonable guess for your area up through ORH from what I'm seeing. The best banding may actually be west of you now though. Hints of western CT up through CT Valley of Mass type band. Yes. Suck zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Take take West West West amp amp amp and it still doesn't look any better in New Hampshire. Waaaaaaa Im far enough south I can usually grab the scraps on these events, but I guess I almost don't count down here in tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Squall line developing off the Florida coastline in the eastern GOM ahead of the 1010mb surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NC snowstorm initiating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Suck zone. No matter what happens it'll be more snow than everyone was expecting yesterday...even if someone ends up in a meso-scale subsidence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we got 8" here lol Man a great weenie signal it seems out that way. Like, a lot of H6-H5 stuff I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Safe to say biggest storm since 2015 for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man a great weenie signal it seems out that way. Like, a lot of H6-H5 stuff I think. Yeah and really nice low level forcing around h85 all with good snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Glad I cked Ryan's info and came here to check the thinking on this. I seriously just read a forecast nothing changed and eastern CT (New London Cty) could get hit with 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ajisai said: Safe to say biggest storm since 2015 for BOS? Didn't they get close to 10 or more from Feb 5th surprise last season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it's odd. The NWS almost always is higher than what I have - sometimes by a factor of 2 - but today they seem really low. Almost like playing catchup. This is our forecast. They've been roasted over the coals for being too bullish on a few occasions in the past few years, most memorably during the blizzard. Probably a little gun shy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Cape Cod received 15" from Jonas last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: They've been roasted over the coals for being too bullish on a few occasions in the past few years, most memorably during the blizzard. Probably a little gun shy And the sick thing is some of the same areas may get more snow from this storm than the "blizzard of 15" where 24-36" was forecast, such as hartford back through waterbury and danbury.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Cape Cod received 15" from Jonas last January. Ugh. Stupid naming of storms to increase clicks James, where on the Cape do you think gets the most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ugh. Stupid naming of storms to increase clicks James, where on the Cape do you think gets the most? Sandwich/Barnstable area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Harvey's map sim to Ryan in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Good stuff everyone. First post in a while, been mostly lurking. Exciting turn of events in such short term (and first real big threat for mby) drew me out. Some thoughts: • 21z RAP vs. 18z RGEM/NAM: note at 21z the 3 hr 18z RGEM/NAM have significantly more energy over KS/OK than does the 0 hr 21z RAP (or 1 hr 20z RAP, 2hr 19z RAP, etc)... this ultimately translates to a more negative tilt axis and more western cyclogenesis on the 18z RGEM/NAM... so a bit of a caution flag, despite the very convincing trend of 18z mesos • Euro: If 18z mesos are correct, amazed how behind the Euro is on this within 24 hours • Huge implications for much of I95 corridor: If 18z mesos are correct, huge implications for Philly-NYC corridor as well... was borderline advisory at 12z, now warning criteria for I95 corridor at least Philly north at least on 18z RGEM • Why the abrupt change this close in: This is not a matter of newly sampled data entering from Pacific or Canada. Lends more credence to Tip's theory that models were keying in on wrong pieces of vorticity as triggers of cyclogenesis. But see first point above... that's assuming 18z RGEM/NAM are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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