December 29th Storm Obs

[CoastalWx]

Pretty sure you can make our the cstl front in which the area of wet snow vs dry is easily seen. Vis satellite probably seeing the snow on trees giving it more of a whitish look in cstl Maine. Also a flaccid like feature of snow in NE CT. 

 

 

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The GFS really was way too warm in ME too.I just looked at 950 temps from the 6z run. Oye Vey. 

Quick mention on the GFS: it was in no way acceptable for our forecast area when it mattered (24 hours out). It would've dry slotted most of Maine. It may have been closer to NH snowfall but I would not argue that was related to the track of the GFS. If you used the Euro and kept in mind the tendency to over (i.e. amplify earlier) and cut back on forcing SW, it would have been a healthy match.

And I know it's disappointing for NH weenies, but I would rather nail the intense stuff in ME and be too high on snow in NH than the other way around. 8-12 for a lot of th eastern part of the state is still impactful. And we had a lot of outages in SE NH.

[OceanStWx]

Check out my post last night of Euro forecast vs reality at H7. It wasn't that close.

Edit: meaning the race with the GFS wasn't close.

[MaineJayhawk]

7 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

  You need to do a full report for all of us!  8.1" Per Hoyr 18" in 6 Hours man!!  

Well, I dunno what to give for a report.  I came home to 4" on the board and didn't think much of it.  Cleared it off, shoveled the driveway and had dinner.  A couple hours later the big 'chutes were falling and I noticed it was accumulating RAPIDLY. I forget the numbers that I posted, but it was something around 2.5" in 20 minutes or so.  I'd shovel the driveway, and when I was done 20 minutes later I'd walk back to where I started and there'd be another couple of inches already fallen.  This went on for a couple of hours.  I was amazed at the duration of heavy snow, the 2"+/hr rates lasted a good 5 hours I think, maybe longer.

 I wish it happened during daylight so that I could see more - I live in the woods and the only light around was my front door light.   I'm sure visibility was down to 500' or so at times.  Absolutely no wind while it was dumping.  In the end I shoveled 7 times, stayed up til 2:00 a.m. which I never ever do anymore and feel like I could use a good massage.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Check out my post last night of Euro forecast vs reality at H7. It wasn't that close.

I looked for myself too. Big difference. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked for myself too. Big difference. 

I know we poke in at it, but that model does me no good if it figures it out once the snow it already flying.

[wx2fish]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ItPretty sure you can make our the cstl front in which the area of wet snow vs dry is easily seen. Vis satellite probably seeing the snow on trees giving it more of a whitish look in cstl Maine. Also a flaccid like feature of snow in NE CT. 

Think you are right. Its also probably an approximation of where the mix made it to in SE NH before crashing back south. Absolutely plastered on everything here. Mansnow you would definitely approve of

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I know we poke in at it, but that model does me no good if it figures it out once the snow it already flying.

Hopefully big Louis figures that out soon. Yet, we run the CFS 4 times a day. LOL.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Think you are right. Absolutely plastered on everything here. Mansnow you would definitely approve of

Wish I was there. 

[jbenedet]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Quick mention on the GFS: it was in no way acceptable for our forecast area when it mattered (24 hours out). It would've dry slotted most of Maine. It may have been closer to NH snowfall but I would not argue that was related to the track of the GFS. If you used the Euro and kept in mind the tendency to over (i.e. amplify earlier) and cut back on forcing SW, it would have been a healthy match.

And I know it's disappointing for NH weenies, but I would rather nail the intense stuff in ME and be too high on snow in NH than the other way around. 8-12 for a lot of th eastern part of the state is still impactful. And we had a lot of outages in SE NH.

Maybe this is more a question concerning forecasting methodology. I like to think broad first and then gradually work down to the details. The GFS was instructive to me for UL evolution and SLP track--that's all. I think a blend of the GFS/Euro would get you to a similar forecasting result while disregarding GFS snow totals and boundary layer temps.  

I'd love to see the verification scores. I do know the mesos were completely out to lunch inside 24 hours with the track over kpsm and a 960 mb low. The real bust was with the mesos imo, and you got killed--forecasting wise-- if you relied heavily upon them.

[dryslot]

I was kissing the backside of that CF, It made a couple pushes trying to get here but never made it over us.

[dryslot]

I know a few tv mets up here were leaning on the GFS as they kept showing the graphic of the CF almost to the foothills and rain here.

[codfishsnowman]

5 hours ago, MetHerb said:

Downtown had at least 0.5" before the change over yesterday morning.  I would call that a "western" part of the city.  I have no idea what they picked up after it changed back.

well that is still a couple miles nw...maybe there was .1 or .2 before the rain but it really just looked like a coating and was gone an hour after the rain began....anyways amounts often vary quite a bit within the city limits

[dendrite]

57 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Quick mention on the GFS: it was in no way acceptable for our forecast area when it mattered (24 hours out). It would've dry slotted most of Maine. It may have been closer to NH snowfall but I would not argue that was related to the track of the GFS. If you used the Euro and kept in mind the tendency to over (i.e. amplify earlier) and cut back on forcing SW, it would have been a healthy match.

And I know it's disappointing for NH weenies, but I would rather nail the intense stuff in ME and be too high on snow in NH than the other way around. 8-12 for a lot of th eastern part of the state is still impactful. And we had a lot of outages in SE NH.

Yeah I just want to be clear that I think the GFS was horrible. My point was just that if some weenie used the GFS QPF/clown maps out here he probably would've been right for the wrong reasons. No one out here is praising the GFS...trust me.

It's a bit of a bummer, but a part of me always thought this was going to take a little too long to reach maturity to have a huge impact this far SW. I'll give credit to jonbenedet ramsey for sticking to his guns that this would be more east considering the models were trying to hook the sfc lows so far NW before closing off the mid-levels. It made sense to me too, but the models kept ticking a bit west so you get a bit sucked into the solutions that close in...even pounding PF for a few runs. I sorta knew I was toast yesterday morning with those HRRR runs and the ticks east at 12z. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I just want to be clear that I think the GFS was horrible. My point was just that if some weenie used the GFS QPF/clown maps out here he probably would've been right for the wrong reasons. No one out here is praising the GFS...trust me.

It's a bit of a bummer, but a part of me always thought this was going to take a little too long to reach maturity to have a huge impact this far SW. I'll give credit to jonbenedet ramsey for sticking to his guns that this would be more east considering the models were trying to hook the sfc lows so far NW before closing off the mid-levels. It made sense to me too, but the models kept ticking a bit west so you get a bit sucked into the solutions that close in...even pounding PF for a few runs. I sorta knew I was toast yesterday morning with those HRRR runs and the ticks east at 12z. 

It wasn't an easy storm to forecast...that's for sure. Though I'm still a bit surprised that your area didn't pull solid double digits. I figured your area up to around Ossipee was pretty safe for that...the latter still did well (think they scored around 15"), but that western zone of the commahead really got compressed east and it cost your area a bit. I suppose the compact nature of this should have been a little more of a red flag for big totals in areas further west, but it was hard to really rely on that, especially since some of the model guidance was producing mid-level tracks pretty far west until the last possible second. This was a pretty poorly modeled storm overall...I'm sure the explosive and mesoscale nature of the development contributed significantly to the model errors. The Euro was by far the most consistent and correct model...but as you mentioned, it still had its warts in this one.

[mahk_webstah]

As the echoes started to move north to south in the late afternoon, and even built back se to nw, I was waiting for the magic to happen.  Looked like a perfect set up for a heavy band to form w and n of CON, especially since the storm was intensifying.  But then you could see the intense radar echoes consolidating to our east and ne, and that was that.  I gave up around 6pm.  Still, 8 inches of snow and around 25" in December is nothing to complain about.  This is a very different winter than the last few, and I think the best is yet to come for most of us.  Also, thanks to so many on here, this was a great learning in terms of how to use the models.  I think we'll see that sort of discussion many more times this season, and I will probably have a more realistic sense of things.

[jbenedet]

I know this is a gross oversimplification--and pretty obvious to most--but if you're forecasting a track over SE NH/NE MA and then it tracks over CC, you're going to have a large forecast error for snow totals, regardless of the details. That was a 75-100 mile error. Now take the heaviest banding and shift that northwest 75 miles and voila, the nw zones get hit hard. Not trying to beat a dead horse here, but we must have a VERY accurate idea on where this will track before trying to figure out anything else. If not, you basically risk making an error that gets propagated and exacerbated when forecasting the details.  

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Wow....amazing it was 10:1 there given the rates and how far north you are. QPF bomb. I'm majorly jealous. I haven't had one of these since moving here (last one I recall is March 2001) and even after waking up yesterday morning I thought it was still mine. Alas the models pulled the football from me when I was about to kick the crap out of it. Congrats to you Mainers though. Those are some wackadoo totals.

If I'd measured right after the snow ended, the stack might've been taller by an inch or so.  Oddly, my last big storm here, Jan. 27-28, 2015 (the one I missed, except for getting to clear the driveway) was also a qpf monster - 2.17" for 20" snowfall.  Much different event, though, as that earlier one was a true blizzard at single-digit temps.  The consistency was like sand, and quite difficult to walk thru as one's feet tried to slide sideways.  Last night's storm had only light winds until near the end and came at mid-upper 20s.  The snow would pack well, so well that I had to hand-shovel where I'd walked earlier to get the snow core, as the snowblower would just climb over the packed footprints.  I did not stay up past about 10:45, but based on when things finished, it appears that we received 17" accum in the 7 hours 8P-3A.  Probably some hours with 3"+ in that span.

 

BHB is Mid-Coast.  I'd go with DE starting at Belfast.

I think you might be a bit turned around, as BHB is 40 miles east of Belfast.  IMO, midcoast is about Brunswick to Camden (or perhaps Belfast though I consider that to be Penobscot Bay), and DE Maine starts at Mt. Desert Island.  Some would push the line back west to about Castine.  Of course, such designations are just as fuzzy as defining SNE/CNE/NNE.  

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If I'd measured right after the snow ended, the stack might've been taller by an inch or so.  Oddly, my last big storm here, Jan. 27-28, 2015 (the one I missed, except for getting to clear the driveway) was also a qpf monster - 2.17" for 20" snowfall.  Much different event, though, as that earlier one was a true blizzard at single-digit temps.  The consistency was like sand, and quite difficult to walk thru as one's feet tried to slide sideways.  Last night's storm came at mid-upper 20s and would pack well, so well that I had to hand-shovel where I'd walked earlier to get the snow core, as the snowblower would just climb over the packed footprints.  I did not stay up past about 10:45, but based on when things finished, it appears that we received 17" accum in the 7 hours 8P-3A.  Probably some hours with 3"+ in that span.

 

BHB is Mid-Coast.  I'd go with DE starting at Belfast.

I think you might be a bit turned around, as BHB is 40 miles east of Belfast.  IMO, DE Maine starts at Mt. Desert Island, though some would push the line back to about Castine.

Oops--I thought BHB was Boothbay.  What is BHB?

I love Castine--came close to moving there when I was a kid.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Oops--I thought BHB was Boothbay.  What is BHB?

Bar Harbor

[Dan76]

Bar Harbah (And you can't get there from here)

[jbenedet]

Just now, Dan76 said:

Bar Harbah

Bah hahbah. That's better.

[ORH_wxman]

Guess I'll post it in here since powderfreak is posting upslope obs....but some pretty viscous squalls moving through central MA. 

[tamarack]

There's a snowblower in there somewhere.

[tamarack]

Our Subaru Forester, well buried.

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It wasn't an easy storm to forecast...that's for sure. Though I'm still a bit surprised that your area didn't pull solid double digits. I figured your area up to around Ossipee was pretty safe for that...the latter still did well (think they scored around 15"), but that western zone of the commahead really got compressed east and it cost your area a bit. I suppose the compact nature of this should have been a little more of a red flag for big totals in areas further west, but it was hard to really rely on that, especially since some of the model guidance was producing mid-level tracks pretty far west until the last possible second. This was a pretty poorly modeled storm overall...I'm sure the explosive and mesoscale nature of the development contributed significantly to the model errors. The Euro was by far the most consistent and correct model...but as you mentioned, it still had its warts in this one.

He missed it by maybe 20 miles. I agree, I thought a little mid level magic would happen there but it compressed east last minute. Some of those high res runs were a little wild though. I don't think anybody bought the low crossing IZG like some of the runs had.

[wx2fish]

Not sure if this is still the right thread but just had a 35dbz+ squall move overhead. Vis got down to an 1/8. Lots of very heavily rimed convective flakes in there. 

[ORH_wxman]

Time sensitive....but nice squall on the webcam:

 

http://www.holycross.edu/webcams/linden-lane

[HoarfrostHubb]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guess I'll post it in here since powderfreak is posting upslope obs....but some pretty viscous squalls moving through central MA. 

Yup.  Near whiteout on Rte 2 in Westminster.  Lots of graupel in there

[ma blizzard]

awesome squall! Can't remember the last time I watched literally a wall of snow move towards mby. At one point there was flurries a couple hundred feet down the street and near white-out conditions a couple hundred feet in the other direction. Also constant 30-40 mph gusts for the duration of the squall (about 5 minutes). Despite finishing with only .3", I'd say this was one of the most impressive snow squalls in at least a couple years.