Met1985 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Our 384 GFS storm, is gone on 18Z, but Canada looks super-cold again, we may be rockin by Valentine's Day, if we are lucky!? Mack did you even look at the 5H?! The pattern significantly changed around the 25th with a much better look. I'm sure it will change in about 5 hours but get it straight bud. Yes Canada does go into an ice box again which is a great look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Hey fellas where can I go to look up past snows in NC? http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 hours ago, griteater said: # of years since last double digit snowfall winter (10 or more inches), at airports... Greer, SC (GSP): 24 years (92-93) Charlotte, NC: 13 years (03-04) Greenville, NC: 13 years (03-04) Raleigh, NC: 13 years (03-04) Greensboro, NC: 3 years (13-14) Asheville, NC: 1 year (15-16) That cant be right, or they have no clue how to measure snow....PGV had 10"+ in Dec 2010 plus another couple 1" events that Dec...then we had maybe a few more inches in Jan and Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php You the man Pack! I appreciate your contributions even if I disagree lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 PGV recorded 6" officially for the Boxing Day storm in 2010, I had to do a double take of MHX's event summary but that is what went in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 43 minutes ago, packbacker said: 67 sticks out as it was mod/strong wQBO post strong Nino and was weak -enso too. We are kind of putting on the cold analog blinders though. Didn't say I was buying it ... But .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Weeklies look like a copy and paste from what pack and SnowNiner post we need to happen pattern wise to get se snow. +pna and - nao/ao. Lol but the weeklies nailed this 12 day torch we've started.. but they've also been crap as well just like gefs and lot of other LR forecast. It's in crap patterns like these out of nowhere the second half of winter a big dogs love to pop up. March 93 and Jan 2000 prime examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 48 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Weeklies look like a copy and paste from what pack and SnowNiner post we need to happen pattern wise to get se snow. +pna and - nao/ao. Lol but the weeklies nailed this 12 day torch we've started.. but they've also been crap as well just like gefs and lot of other LR forecast. It's in crap patterns like these out of nowhere the second half of winter a big dogs love to pop up. March 93 and Jan 2000 prime examples. Good post. Also, the Weeklies seem to have been pretty consistent lately on the last week of Jan and then Feb getting good (disclaimer: I haven't seen them personally...only going by what I hear second, third, fourth, and fifth-hand on here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Models starting to see the Jan 21st-22nd storm that will move the pattern.Everything still looks on schedule to me. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 hours ago, WeatherNC said: PGV recorded 6" officially for the Boxing Day storm in 2010, I had to do a double take of MHX's event summary but that is what went in the books. Seems silly to think that's the legit total seeing as I found 10-14" just about everywhere I measured in that event.....then again the official totals for most events at PGV seem well under what I measure....Mar 1980 is in the books as 16" and I remember me and dad measuring a bunch of different places in the yard and never getting less than 20-24". Same with the Dec 1989 Xmas snow they have 5" listed as the total but we had 10-12" everywhere we measured...same with Dec 2000 they have us listed at 8" and I had 14" on the roof of my car the morning after and my friend had 17" on his little plastic table in the middle of his back yard 100 ft from anything, I took 10 different measurements simply putting a yardstick in the snow and I averaged 10-15" in that event. I know these are not the official way to measure depth etc but it doesn't change the fact that I had 14" on top of my car lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Already got daffodils pushing through the mulch, they should be in full bloom by the time this torch is over! How's Brick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Already got daffodils pushing through the mulch, they should be in full bloom by the time this torch is over! azaleas, dogwoods, blueberries, japanese magnolias ... all going into blossom when the native Chickasaw plums boom, last freeze has passed -- has never failed my observation in however may years old I am -- they're still not blooming, as of dark tonight -- tomorrow could be another story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Looking at the weeklies....looks more or less like this from end of Jan through end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looking at the weeklies....looks more or less like this from end of Jan through end of Feb. You're starting to get sucked in. I can tell. No way we don't get a snowstorm if that pattern sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Looking at the weeklies....looks more or less like this from end of Jan through end of Feb.And you don't like the weeklies why? CFS is garbage until it's consistent late month and it hasn't been consistent, today's run was much colder overall. Models overdo warmth much more than they overdo cold, at least this year. Besides being in this fake Nina quasi Nino neutral stupid ENSO pattern there's zero reason not to be optimistic about late January and at least the first week of February. We don't need half of the indicted people think we need to cash in, Jan 7th proved that...and the pattern advertised on the weeklies is about 10x better than the pattern that just produced a pretty decent NC snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You're starting to get sucked in. I can tell. No way we don't get a snowstorm if that pattern sets up. 2 minutes ago, Jon said: And you don't like the weeklies why? CFS is garbage until it's consistent late month and it hasn't been consistent, today's run was much colder overall. Models overdo warmth much more than they overdo cold, at least this year. Besides being in this fake Nina quasi Nino neutral stupid ENSO pattern there's zero reason not to be optimistic about late January and at least the first week of February. We don't need half of the indicted people think we need to cash in, Jan 7th proved that...and the pattern advertised on the weeklies is about 10x better than the pattern that just produced a pretty decent NC snowfall. The past few BN winter months have all been called by the CFS. Until it shows it I won't be buying...though in the weeklies defense it has been very consistent the past couple of weeks of showing a colder pattern for the east in Feb. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201401.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201402.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201502.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Good post. Also, the Weeklies seem to have been pretty consistent lately on the last week of Jan and then Feb getting good (disclaimer: I haven't seen them personally...only going by what I hear second, third, fourth, and fifth-hand on here). I'm used to the weeklies just bouncing around, but it's been like 4 or 5 runs in a row now where it shows a nino-like colder pattern settling in...to me it's more like 1st week of Feb with late Jan being the transition timeframe. It hasn't pushed it back in time thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Will say the CFS does seem to be trending better for Feb. Ridging over the pole building into Greenland with trough trying to get carved out....I think I have jinxed this enough for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 We have a chance to beat some of our most recent warm Jan's. A few of the notable ones have been in the +5 to +6 range. Currently through 11 days RDU is at -1.8F, to hit +6F for the month RDU will have to average +10F daily over the last 20 days. GEFS has the next 10 days avg'ing +15F. So very good chance to being on top of most recent winters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Will work on getting this in mid February. Everyone in agreement? https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGSO/1979/2/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Greensboro&req_state=NC&req_statename=North+Carolina TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 And look, fantasy storms on the GFS! *mic drop* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Also, fantasy storm city on 00z and 6z GFS. Whoever quoted me and disagreed (can't remember) - patterns and 500mb looks always win out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 So Packs on board the cold train!? He was waiting on CFS, it's happening! Better get the grass cut in the next two weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Saw the euro for same time frame posted on the other board. eery similar to GFS out in la la land. Point is the pattern suports several storms coming up underneath cold press. Last nights fantasy storms need to tick south or not close off so quick. But I'd bet money after this storm depicted here the next one would be deeper along GOM. Remeber the last storm we just had we where chasing the pattern change and the threat just happen to coincid together from over 10 days out. It took awhile to figure out if it was going to be overruning, 2 waves, 1 wave. This will be fun to watch from 15 out and see it evolve, reappear/disapear over the next week or 2. Heres 6z GFS much better than 0z euro,gfs futher south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Saw the euro for same time frame posted on the other board. eery similar to GFS out in la la land. Point is the pattern suports several storms coming up underneath cold press. Last nights fantasy storms need to tick south or not close off so quick. But I'd bet money after this storm depicted here the next one would be deeper along GOM. Remeber the last storm we just had we where chasing the pattern change and the threat just happen to coincid together from over 10 days out. It took awhile to figure out if it was going to be overruning, 2 waves, 1 wave. This will be fun to watch from 15 out and see it evolve, reappear/disapear over the next week or 2. Heres 6z GFS much better than 0z euro,gfs futher south: as always need some nw ticks. which seems to always happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 10 hours ago, packbacker said: Looking at the weeklies....looks more or less like this from end of Jan through end of Feb. LOL, at that pattern on the weeklies. Not sure I could draw a better map. Aleutian low, west coast ridging, west based greenland blocking, eastern trough, and there's probably other pluses I'm missing. My takeaway is the torch is not progged to last, but I'm not buying into all the greenland blocking being shown yet. That keeps being shown, but seems to always trend to some glorified Atlantic ridging. With that said the ensembles are showing it, weeklies are showing it, there's polar displacement modeled still at 10Mb which lends to blocking, so maybe this time it's real? But I'll wait until it's within 5-7 days before I trust it. Nice to see the CFS trending colder for February as well. If the weeklies are even close, yeah it'll be cold I think. Kudos to Jon too on calling the fantasy storms starting to show up. He called that on the last storm too IIRC. Nice pattern recognition. Hopefully it stays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, fritschy said: as always need some nw ticks. which seems to always happen Is that even worth mentioning? This thing will be blazing a trail through the Ohio Valley come go time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: So Packs on board the cold train!? He was waiting on CFS, it's happening! Better get the grass cut in the next two weeks! We will see what the CFS looks like starting in a week or so. Still not buying anything but a transient cold shot first week of Feb then early spring by Feb 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 LOL. Looks like some are grasping at straws and don't know what a fantasy storm is. A fantasy storm is sig. measurable winter precip for the vast majority of the Charlotte and Raleigh metros. And talking about NW trends post 300 hours? Seriously? Let me know how that works out for you this month! Mark my words, copy them, paste them, I know I won't forget this malarkey. *Pattern to not be supportive until second week or later in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Timothy Clyde said: LOL. Looks like some are grasping at straws and don't know what a fantasy storm is. A fantasy storm is sig. measurable winter precip for the vast majority of the Charlotte and Raleigh metros. And talking about NW trends post 300 hours? Seriously? Let me know how that works out for you this month! Mark my words, copy them, paste them, I know I won't forget this malarkey. *Pattern to not be supportive until second week or later in February. Go away wilkes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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