Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Here's the GEFS and the GEPS at 384. Way out there, but is in agreement with each other and with the general idea of a pattern change to colder toward the end of the month. Also, the indexes look fairly tolerable today: The AO looks to go pretty negative, the NAO looks to dip slightly negative/neutral and remain there, the PNA declines from positive to negative/neutral, and the MJO looks to have broad agreement to rise into phase one and then potentially drop back into the COD, remaining on the left side (good). We'll see, but good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Go away wilkes. It's like the neighborhood boy that knocks on the door everyday asking if the kids can come out and play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 22 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Is that even worth mentioning? This thing will be blazing a trail through the Ohio Valley come go time anyway. Its always foolish to even chase a digital fantasy storm out past truncation. Biggest reason I posted the map was for a refernce to come back to hopefully next weekend and see if the models lucked out again sniffing out a threat on the front end of a pattern change or window of opportunity from LR. I wouldnt even consider it had they not rolled 777 with this last event from over 10 days out. I'm just curious to see 2 things for last week of jan first week of Feb: Is this a sutanible pattern change for a few weeks as we close out winter. Or is this just a window of opportunity / transient cold shot. Whicheever it ends up being the second thing is to see if we can time one out and score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 13 hours ago, downeastnc said: Seems silly to think that's the legit total seeing as I found 10-14" just about everywhere I measured in that event.....then again the official totals for most events at PGV seem well under what I measure....Mar 1980 is in the books as 16" and I remember me and dad measuring a bunch of different places in the yard and never getting less than 20-24". Same with the Dec 1989 Xmas snow they have 5" listed as the total but we had 10-12" everywhere we measured...same with Dec 2000 they have us listed at 8" and I had 14" on the roof of my car the morning after and my friend had 17" on his little plastic table in the middle of his back yard 100 ft from anything, I took 10 different measurements simply putting a yardstick in the snow and I averaged 10-15" in that event. I know these are not the official way to measure depth etc but it doesn't change the fact that I had 14" on top of my car lol. Sounds like PGV is the DCA of the SE forum, ha. I looked at co-op reports, and here's what I see for the Dec 2010 event: Greenville Utility Comm: 5.7 Williamston (1 Mile East): 8.0 Washington (4 Miles West): 3.0 Tarboro (1 Mile South): 12.0 Goldsboro (1 Mile North): 9.5 Kinston AG Research: 6.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Timothy Clyde said: LOL. Looks like some are grasping at straws and don't know what a fantasy storm is. A fantasy storm is sig. measurable winter precip for the vast majority of the Charlotte and Raleigh metros. And talking about NW trends post 300 hours? Seriously? Let me know how that works out for you this month! Mark my words, copy them, paste them, I know I won't forget this malarkey. *Pattern to not be supportive until second week or later in February. Gotta keep the dreams alive my friend, winter will return, just a matter of when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 GFS para, doesn't look good , even the h5 pattern! last frame has monster trough out West, ridge over us and this is out to the 27th! Looks like the same pattern we've seen all winter! Wash, rinse , repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS para, doesn't look good , even the h5 pattern! last frame has monster trough out West, ridge over us and this is out to the 27th! Looks like the same pattern we've seen all winter! Wash, rinse , repeat! Old run...0Z. Throw it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS para, doesn't look good , even the h5 pattern! last frame has monster trough out West, ridge over us and this is out to the 27th! Looks like the same pattern we've seen all winter! Wash, rinse , repeat! You'll like the 12z GFS at the same timeframe. Out in fantasy land but it looks good nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Shocker...GEFS trending to cold dumped in to west and warm east. LOL.....'drop the mic' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: Shocker...GEFS trending to cold dumped in to west and warm east. LOL.....'drop the mic' Maybe that trend stops. The non-trend 500mb for day 16 still looks good. Hopefully that stay constant as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 That image transitions to this by the end of the run: And the northern hemispherical view (deepest global negative anomalies on the east coast of the US): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Maybe that trend stops. The non-trend 500mb for day 16 still looks good. Hopefully that stay constant as we move forward. Yeah, I'll take this look. #FabFeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 We're going to get serious fropa somewhere between the 25th and 27th. Maybe it delays until the 28th, but I think not at this point. Been looking like that for days now. That storm will not be ours, just the usher for pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That image transitions to this by the end of the run: And the northern hemispherical view (deepest global negative anomalies on the east coast of the US): Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12z GFS = $ on day 14-15!! weird looking storm, southern screamer, big monster 1050 high in Montana, kind of like our last winter storm!? What could go wrong with that!? No GL low, so winning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12Z GEPS (starts to develop this look in the 280ish HR time frame): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z GFS = $ on day 14-15!! weird looking storm, southern screamer, big monster 1050 high in Montana, kind of like our last winter storm!? What could go wrong with that!? No GL low, so winning! We've got it right where it wants us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z GFS = $ on day 14-15!! weird looking storm, southern screamer, big monster 1050 high in Montana, kind of like our last winter storm!? What could go wrong with that!? No GL low, so winning! Another disturbance over KansColbraska right behind it. Would be interesting to see if it would dive SE in the following frames. Could be a big over running if it taps gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 37 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Another disturbance over KansColbraska right behind it. Would be interesting to see if it would dive SE in the following frames. Could be a big over running if it taps gulf moisture. THAT...may be our fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Lot of mic dropping going on...have faith EPS keeps up never ending torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: THAT...may be our fish Hope its frozen fish and not the warm, in the sun too long, variety! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 What we have here is the infamous 3 Eyed Pug pattern shaping up at the end of the 12Z Euro run. You can see the dual low anomalies off the NW coast and again over the SE, along with block, slightly offset, in eastern Canada, and ridging setting up in the intermountain West. This type of pattern typically yields below normal temps in the SE along with a propensity for above normal precip, including wet snow under the lowest heights. The eventual evolution of this pattern typically takes one of two paths: 1) The low off the west coast retrogrades, pumping up the west coast ridge, which links up with the retrograding block in Canada. This would set off a -EPO/+PNA regime, keeping lower heights in the east, along with an undercutting jet. 2 ) The low off the west coast is progressive, bringing more troughing to the west, pumping up heights in the SE. Option 1 is preferred, though given the tendency for a -PNA, option 2 can't be taken off the table. That said, many signals are pointing to a more favorable period as we work into February. Ruff ruff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: What we have here is the infamous 3 Eyed Pug pattern shaping up at the end of the 12Z Euro run. You can see the dual low anomalies off the NW coast and again over the SE, along with block, slightly offset, in eastern Canada, and ridging setting up in the intermountain West. This type of pattern typically yields below normal temps in the SE along with a propensity for above normal precip, including wet snow under the lowest heights. The eventual evolution of this pattern typically takes one of two paths: 1) The low off the west coast retrogrades, pumping up the west coast ridge, which links up with the retrograding block in Canada. This would set off a -EPO/+PNA regime, keeping lower heights in the east, along with an undercutting jet. 2 ) The low off the west coast is progressive, bringing more troughing to the west, pumping up heights in the SE. Option 1 is preferred, though given the tendency for a -PNA, option 2 can't be taken off the table. That said, many signals are pointing to a more favorable period as we work into February. Ruff ruff. This 3 Eyed Pug pattern that you speak of....Is this similar to Rodney Dangerfield's infamous Triple Lindy??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Cold Rain, the extended ensemble and weeklies evolution are showing your option 1, though maybe without the undercutting STJ....just a full retrograde of the features in the Pacific and Western North America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Boknows34 said: This 3 Eyed Pug pattern that you speak of....Is this similar to Rodney Dangerfield's infamous Triple Lindy??? Ha, maybe so! Just now, griteater said: Cold Rain, the extended ensemble and weeklies evolution is your option 1, though maybe without the undercutting STJ....just a full retrograde of the features in the Pacific and Western North America Well, that's certainly a good start -- hopefully not a false start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 ^ lol... I remember that game. Pack is trying his best reverse psychological game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: ^ lol... I remember that game. Pack is trying his best reverse psychological game. Pack is always doing the opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Pack is trying his best reverse psychological game. He's in mid-season form...the real deal Pack is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Not a bad look, huh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Not a bad look, huh! And surface temps are like what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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