SN_Lover Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 GFS is screaming miller A. Do not think this will be a apps cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I'll be in the ohio river valley soon....looks like some brutally cold air up there! GFS looked interesting toward the end of the run in fantasy land... very cold temps in the carolinas with a low moving across the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 What's to stop the SE ridge from flexing? Where's the negative NAO? (It could get record breaking warm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: What's to stop the SE ridge from flexing? Where's the negative NAO? (It could get record breaking warm) Most likely not, with a -EPO, that's almost off the charts! Either teleconnections are wrong, or the models, I'd guess models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 12z Euro looked terrible as far as for anything wintry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonathan said: Sure, the GFS and CMC are different, but they both have an absolutely behemoth of a blowtorch for Christmas Eve and Day (especially day as of 12z). I don't think there's a way around that. We've been getting a run here and there that throw us a bone but I think that SER will persist (it's been modeled strong more often than weak) and would expect the EURO to revert back to a warmer solution today and beyond. And thar she blows. EURO is a warm, wet lump of coal on Christmas Day. That'll get ya in the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jonathan said: And thar she blows. EURO is a warm, wet lump of coal on Christmas Day. That'll get ya in the spirit! I wouldn't call 41 degrees warm in my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 30 minutes ago, Jonathan said: And thar she blows. EURO is a warm, wet lump of coal on Christmas Day. That'll get ya in the spirit! EURO dumps the surface high South into the Rockies and bogs down out there which causesl a bleedover effect into the SE eventually and we all know how that tends to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 30 minutes ago, Jonathan said: And thar she blows. EURO is a warm, wet lump of coal on Christmas Day. That'll get ya in the spirit! EURO dumps the surface high South into the Rockies and bogs down out there which causesl a bleedover effect into the SE eventually and we all know how that tends to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 What a dumpster fire of runs today! It's always great when the cold dumps down the Rockies! It'll bleed into SE by mid January! Guess the -EPO magical unicorn, just took a dump on our Christmas holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Another good eps run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Not only that, but now the GOA High is cutting off from the main pattern, would likely migrate toward the Pole while strong pac jet develops. Trough likely cuts off over the Southwest, retrogrades, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Another good eps run. Am I sensing saracasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Another good eps run. Am I sensing saracasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Am I sensing saracasm No, it's good at days 11-15! But when is it not!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Am I sensing saracasm No, it's good at days 11-15! But when is it not!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: What a dumpster fire of runs today! It's always great when the cold dumps down the Rockies! It'll bleed into SE by mid January! Guess the -EPO magical unicorn, just took a dump on our Christmas holidays! Exactly! EPO is useless with the PNA neutral or slightly negative! What a dumpster fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: I wouldn't call 41 degrees warm in my location. 41 degrees and rain is exactly 9 degrees too "warm"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Ladies and Gentleman welcome to the 2017 edition of Torchmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 What I find amazing is the ENTIRE CONUS being above normal this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 hours ago, WarmNose said: Am I sensing saracasm Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 What the heck...hard to imagine these are the two best models and are so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 21 minutes ago, packbacker said: What the heck...hard to imagine these are the two best models and are so different. Over on the MA thread there is talk that Bastardi and DT (whoever that is) are pooh-poohing the 18z GFS. EPS is apparently still showing a cool (but dry) Xmas day. Hope is not completely lost, but the situation does feel a bit grim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: What I find amazing is the ENTIRE CONUS being above normal this time of year That is impressive. Seems like you never see that in the other direction. Would be a good time to be up in the Canadian praries. Their normals are frigid this time of year, so if they are 8 -10 F below, things will be brisk baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 things: 1) once I logged in I think all my glitches are gone on mobile. Anyone else still having issues? 2) this thread is now a full year old! 281 pages baby! When I logged in it started me at the beginning of the thread so I got to read 12 month old complaints about December weather. Lol. 3) stay positive folks! We are only 4 days away from winter solstice....and then our sun angle starts getting higher again!! The Grinch is grinching all over our holiday week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Will the SER ever leave us alone? Will it be like this til the end of time? *insert saddest emoji face you can find on the Internet* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 27 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Over on the MA thread there is talk that Bastardi and DT (whoever that is) are pooh-poohing the 18z GFS. EPS is apparently still showing a cool (but dry) Xmas day. Hope is not completely lost, but the situation does feel a bit grim. DT is Dave Tolleris. He is an agriculture and energy meteorologist. He has a Facebook page and website called WxRisk. He's pretty good with forcasting. He just has a bit of an attitude and acts like a recalcitrant child at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 34 minutes ago, tramadoc said: DT is Dave Tolleris. He is an agriculture and energy meteorologist. He has a Facebook page and website called WxRisk. He's pretty good with forcasting. He just has a bit of an attitude and acts like a recalcitrant child at times. Thank you, tramadoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Yeah not look good right now for Christmas. Most models showing the SER owning the show. Just looked at the Canadian and it would have widespread 60s and 70s across the SE. The JMA still shows a cool look but doesn't have much support. Still a couple of more days to see if things can trend better but it needs to start looking better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah not look good right now for Christmas. Most models showing the SER owning the show. Just looked at the Canadian and it would have widespread 60s and 70s across the SE. The JMA still shows a cool look but doesn't have much support. Still a couple of more days to see if things can trend better but it needs to start looking better soon. I still doubt a real warm Christmas, And wouldn't be at all surprised if we end up with a CAD event give or take a day either side of Christmas!!! Merry Christmas and a nice CAD event!!! or = Ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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