Welcome to American Weather
SchaumburgStormer

January 2017 General Discussion

420 posts in this topic

December is my favorite time of year, but January is my favorite month...all about winter. With a great start to the 2016-17 season, the current rotten thaw/hiatus notwithstanding, January-February can make this into a fantastic winter. Only in the unlikely event we go all 2005-06 would Decembers cold and snow blitz seem like a cruel joke haha.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will probably be snow time later in the month but right now my Indpls forecast has showers and t storms possible for Monday afternoon and eve Jan. 2 before turning colder for the rest of the week.  Long range GFS looks interesting for the subforum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
December is my favorite time of year, but January is my favorite month...all about winter. With a great start to the 2016-17 season, the current rotten thaw/hiatus notwithstanding, January-February can make this into a fantastic winter. Only in the unlikely event we go all 2005-06 would Decembers cold and snow blitz seem like a cruel joke haha.



See I've always been about June. Great outdoors month as it's usually not too hot and humid yet, while having some very good severe prospects

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yep.  Been over 2 weeks since the last measurable snow here (1.5" Dec 17).  How long will the snowless streak last?  Looking pretty bleak for at least the next 8-10 days.

Happens every January.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Winners and losers so far

 

map_btd.png

 

Decent start near/north of I-80, but certainly in the midst of a downtime. Hopefully this map gets more green/blue in January, especially farther south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know this is outside of the area of interest for most on this sub forum, but when I look at the current models and then see this graphic from the grand forks nws there seems to be a huge disconnect.  Does this forecast have any chance of verifying?

Looking at the models, the largest qpf for the area is about 0.5".  It's going to take 20 to 1 ratios to get close to 12".  Most mid winter snowfall is dry here, but its usually small grains of snow nowhere near 20 to 1.  

NWS.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Winners and losers so far

 

map_btd.png

 

Decent start near/north of I-80, but certainly in the midst of a downtime. Hopefully this map gets more green/blue in January, especially farther south.

This map shows very well how the relentless 30 to 40 mph winds we seem to be getting with every cold front this year has blown the Lake Michigan snows over my head and dropped them in the Grand Rapids area. Ready for the wind to die down...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, XfireLOW said:

I know this is outside of the area of interest for most on this sub forum, but when I look at the current models and then see this graphic from the grand forks nws there seems to be a huge disconnect.  Does this forecast have any chance of verifying?

Looking at the models, the largest qpf for the area is about 0.5".  It's going to take 20 to 1 ratios to get close to 12".  Most mid winter snowfall is dry here, but its usually small grains of snow nowhere near 20 to 1.  

NWS.jpg

Interesting forecast for you.  Looking at some forecast soundings, the DGZ doesn't look particularly too impressive during the two main waves.  Generally around 75-150mb at best.  You may have periods of rather meager flake size between the more enhanced bands.  The difference in model QPF is kind of surprising being so close to the event.  Euro drops <0.5" over a wide area, while some of the higher res models go crazy and drop widespread 0.7-0.9" amounts.  LSRs are always tricky to forecast, but I'd probably go with a conservative 15:1 for most of northern MN due to lack of DGZ depth.  Cold temps through the column, and lack of wind should help though, so it'll be interesting to see how it turns out.  I'd probably go with around 10" for your area.  Euro is probably a bit too stingy with precip, and even with a conservative 15:1 LSR that would still yield you 7" between the two main waves.  If the 4km/3km NAMs aren't overdone you could easily achieve 12"+.

By the way, be careful looking at the DGZ depth analysis on the Pivotalweather forecast soundings.  They incorrectly put the base of the DGZ depth below the inversion layer, which can sometimes falsely add over 100mb of depth to the DGZ zone lol.  

2u5bapy.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Thanks Cyclone77, most of that analysis is lost on me.  But, its nice to know that graphic has some validity.  It seems like the NWS have gotten super conservative (over estimating) with snowstorms the last few years and I was wondering if that was the case in this instance.

This upcoming system hopefully is similar to Presidents Day 2013 here.  I got nearly a foot of snow when the model qpf was only showing 0.25".   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up 0.02" of rain last night.  

I got 0.09". More than you! Hmm, doesn't seem as fun to brag when it's not snow...... :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/1/2017 at 9:34 PM, XfireLOW said:

 Thanks Cyclone77, most of that analysis is lost on me.  But, its nice to know that graphic has some validity.  It seems like the NWS have gotten super conservative (over estimating) with snowstorms the last few years and I was wondering if that was the case in this instance.

This upcoming system hopefully is similar to Presidents Day 2013 here.  I got nearly a foot of snow when the model qpf was only showing 0.25".   

How much snow did you end up getting total?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My dad in Toledo said there was thunder last night. It's fairly rare to have lightning in January in the north. Toledo had temps in the 30's at the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

How much snow did you end up getting total?

I think I got the bulls eye with this storm.  The NWS report says 13".  Which I would say is pretty accurate.  Schools are closed and work started late.  I had about 4" by yesterday 5pm and added at least 8" overnight.  I happened to wake up about 1am and it was snowing so hard that it looked almost like daylight with the city lights reflecting off the falling snow.  All the snow is the consistency of champagne powder which the wind is now doing its thing and blowing it all over.  It's still snowing a little bit, I think.  Its hard to tell with the blowing snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, XfireLOW said:

I think I got the bulls eye with this storm.  The NWS report says 13".  Which I would say is pretty accurate.  Schools are closed and work started late.  I had about 4" by yesterday 5pm and added at least 8" overnight.  I happened to wake up about 1am and it was snowing so hard that it looked almost like daylight with the city lights reflecting off the falling snow.  All the snow is the consistency of champagne powder which the wind is now doing its thing and blowing it all over.  It's still snowing a little bit, I think.  Its hard to tell with the blowing snow.

Nice.  

Temp dropped a good 10 degrees here over the past 3hrs.  Was hoping to see a few wind-blown flurries as the CAA really took hold, but even that is too much to ask apparently.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the potential for a band of a few inches of snow for southern parts of the region.  Would be their biggest snow so far this season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.