dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 SPC's Rap +6hr slp projection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen... That will forever be the Messenger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, danstorm said: That will forever be the Messenger storm No that's not the messenger storm. The messenger storm is 1/22-23/05-same winter different storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: SPC's Rap +6hr slp projection I haven't even been following the Rap.. is that colder again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen... Yeah, absolutely (great example btw...) Suppose something like that would come down to a whopper candidate for a now-cast. I mean "maaaaybe" we could argue that the NAM sorta kinda wanted that when it was around hour 72 the other day - recall...some pretty constricted appeals with 'micro' low skirting by east of Logan. It lost it in the run up though so not sure it's really the same thing - could be coincidence there, though it really looks/feels the same. I'm staring to wonder if my thoughts re the non-hydro stat modeling from two days ago were not as wrong as I first so willingly canned yesterday... Oh well. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: No that's not the messenger storm. The messenger storm is 1/22-23/05-same winter different storm. No, messenger was all over that storm too...the Feb 28-Mar 1 system. He was obsessing over the covnective meso-low and it turned out to be a huge factor. He was posting pics of like 15" of snow back on WWBB, lol. Anyways, back on topic...I don't think it is a shock that models are busting right now. I had always been skeptical of how quickly they eroded the boundary layer chill. It will change to rain for many, but there could actually be some decent snow before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: No that's not the messenger storm. The messenger storm is 1/22-23/05-same winter different storm. No I don't think so - it's not the Blizzard... I lived in Boston then - the storm Will referenced dumped on Scott and he submitted reports that the NWS ignored. Caused a real firestorm replete with side of the road pics all around his hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, danstorm said: No I don't think so - it's not the Blizzard... I lived in Boston then - the storm Will referenced dumped on Scott and he submitted reports that the NWS ignored. Caused a real firestorm replete with side of the road pics all around his hood So classic messenger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I haven't even been following the Rap.. is that colder again? I have not looked at the upper levels or surface temps, I was more interested to see where it sets up the SLP, whether it was east or tucked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 This is gonna be a little blue nuke for the 495 belt and NW...I'm not really seeing it go over to rain at this point. I mean, can't rule it out for a brief time, but I just don't see how we're going to get enough of a warm push to offset the lift. The warm layer is pretty weak sauce around 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is gonna be a little blue nuke for the 495 belt and NW...I'm not really seeing it go over to rain at this point. I mean, can't rule it out for a brief time, but I just don't see how we're going to get enough of a warm push to offset the lift. The warm layer is pretty weak sauce around 925. +2 +3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is gonna be a little blue nuke for the 495 belt and NW...I'm not really seeing it go over to rain at this point. I mean, can't rule it out for a brief time, but I just don't see how we're going to get enough of a warm push to offset the lift. The warm layer is pretty weak sauce around 925. Could you please extend that SW? Please ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen... Yeah the Cape got amounts near 12-15" especially the Upper Cape and Canal area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: +2 +3? Not even. Not in that area...further SE maybe. It gets to like +1 maybe over the 495 belt from about Littleton to westboro. I'm starting to think that's even overdone but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I remember NWS seemingly ignoring several reports from the the inverted trough storm for some areas along the south coast sometime in mid march 2013. - IIRC some areas along 195 towards the bridges were reporting between 10-12" but I believe the NWS only posted amounts around 6" or 7" which were totals more in line with their forecast. I wish I could pull up old PNS totals for that. I could also be mixing up storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not even. Not in that area...further SE maybe. It gets to like +1 maybe over the 495 belt from about Littleton to westboro. I'm starting to think that's even overdone but we will see. I would think +1 to 1.5 would be easy to overcome, In your thoughts where would the max temp be to be able to overcome at that level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not even. Not in that area...further SE maybe. It gets to like +1 maybe over the 495 belt from about Littleton to westboro. I'm starting to think that's even overdone but we will see. I don't think I rain. Someone in this area gets close to double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 move the crush zone east. of course there's a last minute shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I would think +1 to 1.5 would be easy to overcome, In your thoughts where would the max temp be to be able to overcome at that level? Well it all depends on the UVVs. If you have like 80 microbars per second you can prob wash out 2C pretty easy...lol. But easier said than done to get that lift. This storm should be able to produce it though...esp up that way as it goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well it all depends on the UVVs. If you have like 80 microbars per second you can prob wash out 2C pretty easy...lol. But easier said than done to get that lift. This storm should be able to produce it though...esp up that way as it goes nuts. Well that was where i was going with that, I know when it gets up here its dropping mb like prom dresses................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Well it all depends on the UVVs. If you have like 80 microbars per second you can prob wash out 2C pretty easy...lol. But easier said than done to get that lift. This storm should be able to produce it though...esp up that way as it goes nuts. Is that why Mesos are turning it back to a few hour thump of 2-4 for areas south of Pike too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 to beat the band from Litchfield North... just drove from winsted to newington, all rain, until i hit Litchfield on 8.. sloppy roads, paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'm also not sure how much of a typical late March deck destroying blue bomb this really is - at least out this way. It won't be fluffy but it's not like we're isothermal through much of the column. It's pretty cold until it gets close to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looks like the 12z Euro develops the low a little late but has a couple ticks east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Looks like the 12z Euro develops the low a little late but has a couple ticks east Yeah...I may miss the extreme heavies this far west. The consolation may be less slop and better ratios. I did want my QPF bomb though. We'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...I may miss the extreme heavies this far west. The consolation may be less slop and better ratios. I did want my QPF bomb though. We'll see how it plays out. That would up the game here considerably on that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I'm despondent at that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, mreaves said: I'm despondent at that image. It isn't ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, mreaves said: I'm despondent at that image. Yeah and the meso models are much less generous than that for us WNE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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