Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The 23rd has looked crappy for days so hopefully nobody got hung up over it. I'd also watch the storm on the 26th, esp interior and NNE. It's not close the shades for everyone. You know ... I was stinkin' ... this last snow event that nearly got completely eradicated the next day ... really was a "lucky" sort of dice role in the first place. The teleconnectors don't draw any kind of base-line look for snow east of the Rockies... What I think transpired is that for about 7 to 10 days we sported a rather robust -EPO, and that loaded Canada well and good with deep cold. I remember last week posting the Canadian 10-D temp anomalies, and showed that it pretty much spanned the pan-wide continent at some -2 to -6(.4) sd ( average -3 in lay terms). Idiosyncratic timing did the rest and played favorably for some overrunning.... Now that we have squarely lost that antecedent blocking up there over Alaska ... heh, kind of makes sense that systems are de-amplifying coming east of the Rockies. ...relaxed heights (temporarily) in the SE or not... In fact, if at any point over the next 10 days we end up with a record breaking warm pop I wouldn't be shocked by that. Rarely do we see EVERY atmospheric teleconnector warm .. interesting. Edit: well... maybe not... EPO is neutralizing in recent runs so... either way - good for disk golf woot woot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The 23rd has looked crappy for days so hopefully nobody got hung up over it. I'd also watch the storm on the 26th, esp interior and NNE. It's not close the shades for everyone. ZZzzzz, Congrats NDakota for a true Plains Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 35 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: It's not about the models, it's about pattern recognition. lol. as if you can have one without the other. if no computer simulations, how would one go about recognizing such a thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol. as if you can have one without the other. if no computer simulations, how would one go about recognizing such a thing? Dude, back in the day, mets used to forecast accurately 25 days in advance by analyzing cat behavior. NWP ruined all of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ZZzzzz, Congrats NDakota for a true Plains Blizzard You get your jimmies off of H5 lows and snow showers. Surprised you'd say that. Must be the Tussin you're taking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 who needs models, just stick your head out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Trends are not our friend today. Still time for a correction but the clock is running out. We've had it pretty good here this dec. lots of snow. I've had more in late nov till now, than I have had in the last two nov-dec seasons combined. We will have to see. True the clock is running out. Weather seems to be very unpredictable though. Look at what happened on Saturday more snow than was predicted by the models on Saturday before it did go straight rain and a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol. as if you can have one without the other. if no computer simulations, how would one go about recognizing such a thing? So So True. What he doesn't understand, is that anything into the future is a simulation...one thing about it is wrong...and well..... 2-4 weeks from now...who knows what we will be looking at...but I guess some of these people think they know??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The 23rd has looked crappy for days so hopefully nobody got hung up over it. I'd also watch the storm on the 26th, esp interior and NNE. It's not close the shades for everyone. What a GFS run for the 22-23rd. This would be a solid event. 24-hour QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What a GFS run for the 22-23rd. This would be a solid event. 24-hour QPF. GGEM looks solid too with Advisory level snows. EURO wants no part in it though...GFS/GGEM vs ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You get your jimmies off of H5 lows and snow showers. Surprised you'd say that. Must be the Tussin you're taking. New Drought thread incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 SE ridge Dec 26-27 would mean 60's for highs. That's if Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: SE ridge Dec 26-28 would mean 60's for highs. That's if Euro is right What time you arriving tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: SE ridge Dec 26-28 would mean 60's for highs. That's if Euro is right 7-9 days out...I wouldn't be worrying about 60's. For the very nice event that just passed on Saturday, Euro was one of the warmer models for quite some time..it ended up trending colder each run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 3 hours ago, weathafella said: I suspect you know exactly what it means...lol. lolz. I hardly ever hear it but when I do I chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 7-9 days out...I wouldn't be worrying about 60's. For the very nice event that just passed on Saturday, Euro was one of the warmer models for quite some time..it ended up trending colder each run.... That was entirely different with a storm. This is just a record setting height wise SE ridge. Might not verify , but verbatim that's what it would be. Would even get mild in NNE . If it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Well damn! My new zone says snow likely on Thursday and then the chance of snow Monday. No mention of rain at all LOL. I hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was entirely different with a storm. This is just a record setting height wise SE ridge. Might not verify , but verbatim that's what it would be. Would even get mild in NNE . If it's right Pretty good Ensemble support for a cutter during that time period. Alot can change at this lead time but the signal is there at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Well damn! My new zone says snow likely on Thursday and then the chance of snow Monday. No mention of rain at all LOL. I hope it's right Yeah Thursday into Thursday night looks like a nice refresher currently for the northern third of New England on the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah Thursday into Thursday night looks like a nice refresher currently for the northern third of New England on the GFS and NAM. Would be nice to get a tic or two south on that. Not impossible this year for sure, especially with cold nights over at thick sno pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Would be nice to get a tic or two south on that. Not impossible this year for sure, especially with cold nights over at thick sno pack Unfortunately in this pattern with that pig ridge and no blocking the only trend you'll see is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Unfortunately in this pattern with that pig ridge and no blocking the only trend you'll see is north too bad some of us lost our snow cover, little rain , low dews temps in the 30's 40's for weeks on end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: too bad some of us lost our snow cover, little rain , low dews temps in the 30's 40's for weeks on end I think Euro and EPS is too strong with pig ridge but even if it is there's days of 50's in there from time to time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 This place is a trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: This place is a trip. Swings with the tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 42 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Swings with the tide. Ain't that the truth. Doom and gloom as far as the eye can see seems to be the consensus from some here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Swings with the tide. It's a little easier when you've had 59 inches of snow on Dec 19th with 12-24 Otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Toasters are on sale, aisle 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Toasters are on sale, aisle 9 Lmao. How was your trip to Aroostook? Heading up Myself a week from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: This place is a trip. A bad trip sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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