Model Mayhem!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Toaster sales are trending up on Amazon.  

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Toaster sales are trending up on Amazon.  

Proctor Silex closed at +4 on the stock exchange

[Typhoon Tip]

not that anyone asked by i'm kind of psychologically checked out on winter here, anyway.

yeah, friday's cold blah blah wow. 

but at this point, the bigger news story for me is the interminable se ridge and once the epo relaxation and [probable] phase flip takes place, the skies the limit in warm up potential... i'm curious if not outright fascinated in how warm it can get. 

undoubtedly, ...if not just because i said so, we'll end up right on the dividing line between too warm to snow and not warm enough to care.  ...seems almost like more so than anything else, the real "pattern" is an unrelenting banal result to everything.. heh.  annnywho - i'd love to completely annihilate all records if we're going to take a bath one way or the other - 

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

so the 10-12 they get before then goes down to 4-6 on top of the feet they have in manmade and natural and you think they will close? Because of 12 hours above freezing?

If the torch-deluge were of a magnitude to cause extended closures at NNE ski areas, no one could get there anyway because the bridges would be blown out. 

Still a ways out, but I could see a net zero (thaw negates front-end thump) in the foothills, particularly in CAD country.

[ariof]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

so the 10-12 they get before then goes down to 4-6 on top of the feet they have in manmade and natural and you think they will close? Because of 12 hours above freezing?

Reminds me of last year's pattern, or at least last year's cold snap in February. Cold shot followed by warm up. Not as bad as -9 to 54 at BOS (and -16 to 53 at ORH) in <48 hrs last year, but not helping.

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

so the 10-12 they get before then goes down to 4-6 on top of the feet they have in manmade and natural and you think they will close? Because of 12 hours above freezing?

I didn't say they would but Jspinner did

[ajisai]

Not a meteorologist here. But what could cause that much of a swing in temperature? Is there some sort unusually warm system coming off the Atlantic? 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, SR Airglow said:

Looks like you were an accidental casualty of taking the bait intended for Kevin 

 

You never can tell… after all, it’s the model “maaaaaay-hemmmmm” thread (I found out that one is required to say that “mayhem” in sort of a drawn out, spooky\sensationalistic voice).  In the model “maaaaaay-hemmmmm” thread, anything goes.

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I didn't say they would but Jspinner did

I think Jspinner baited you, and you fell for it hook line and sinker.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I think Jspinner baited you, and you fell for it hook line and sinker.

Did i?

Or did he bite?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did i?

Or did he bite?

Well we know that's what you do here...but perhaps he bit a lil too.  But really, do you really think a one day warm up in Ski country is going to wipe out all that snow in one day??? 

[ORH_wxman]

EC ensembles aren't as bad today late in the run...they lowered heights quite a bit in SE Canada at the end.

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well we know that's what you do here...but perhaps he bit a lil too.  But really, do you really think a one day warm up in Ski country is going to wipe out all that snow in one day??? 

It probably will, but their is always next season to try again.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well we know that's what you do here...but perhaps he bit a lil too.  But really, do you really think a one day warm up in Ski country is going to wipe out all that snow in one day??? 

I wasn't sure..That's why I asked a met ..due to the uncertainty that two warm cutters could cause there.

[Hazey]

EC ensembles aren't as bad today late in the run...they lowered heights quite a bit in SE Canada at the end.

And around and around we go. The euro had been far from stellar in the long range. Even mid range it has had its troubles. Ebbs and flows.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Hazey said:

And around and around we go. The euro had been far from stellar in the long range. Even mid range it has had its troubles. Ebbs and flows.

To be fair, it's still showing a sucky period next week...that hasn't changed. But hopefully if the ensembles are right, it isn't prolonged and we at least return to something serviceable.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Thank you. I've been having a bit of a problem following the sheer number of posts. I was under the impression that the warmest solutions were a virtual certainty and wondered how it could be so this far out.

Not looking for confirmation of what I'd like to happen (big time snow, like most everyone else here), just trying to get how the experts know degrees of likelihood at a distance of several days. I get that once we are within three, maybe four, days things tend to lock.

Your clear and simple explanation helps

There is a high likelihood of a warm sector not just because guidance shows it, but the pattern supports it with nothing to really squash the  low. At least pike south. Climo always make it hard the further north you are. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

To be fair, it's still showing a sucky period next week...that hasn't changed. But hopefully if the ensembles are right, it isn't prolonged and we at least return to something serviceable.

Centered right on the 24-26th right?

[Hazey]

To be fair, it's still showing a sucky period next week...that hasn't changed. But hopefully if the ensembles are right, it isn't prolonged and we at least return to something serviceable.

Agreed 100%.

[J.Spin]

56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

so the 10-12 they get before then goes down to 4-6 on top of the feet they have in manmade and natural and you think they will close? Because of 12 hours above freezing?

 

Hey now, we’re purists up here.  If we don’t have a solid four feet of base by Christmas, most of us don’t even show up, and it’s probably not really worth keeping the resorts open.  A mere 3 feet of snow (and remember, it’s the only 3 feet we’ve got of course)… fuhgeddaboudit.  Shut ‘em down!

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Centered right on the 24-26th right?

No more like 20-23.

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Hey now, we’re purists up here.  If we don’t have a solid four feet of base by Christmas, most of us don’t even show up, and it’s probably not really worth keeping the resorts open.  A mere 3 feet of snow (and remember, it’s the only 3 feet we’ve got of course)… fuhgeddaboudit.  Shut ‘em down!

What will you do when grass shows up next monday on the slopes?

[Damage In Tolland]

This is going to be awesome

 

Regarding the dynamic-tropopause nearing 650mb (so close you
could almost touch it), with BL mixing Thu night reaching nearly
H7 and strong pres rises, will also note the risk for very strong
to potentially damaging wind gusts for a period late Thu night
into Fri morning. Bufkit profiles suggest mixing could tap 50-60
kt LLJ at H7 which should efficiently mix to the sfc. Sustained
winds of 30-40 mph with gusts as high as 60+ at times are entirely
possible (just exacerbating and already dangerously cold period).
Wind advisories are likely going to be needed with a moderate risk
for High Wind Warnings. These winds will subside some through the
day Fri, but remain strong enough that loose items could be at
risk for blowing around.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is going to be awesome

 

Regarding the dynamic-tropopause nearing 650mb (so close you
could almost touch it), with BL mixing Thu night reaching nearly
H7 and strong pres rises, will also note the risk for very strong
to potentially damaging wind gusts for a period late Thu night
into Fri morning. Bufkit profiles suggest mixing could tap 50-60
kt LLJ at H7 which should efficiently mix to the sfc. Sustained
winds of 30-40 mph with gusts as high as 60+ at times are entirely
possible (just exacerbating and already dangerously cold period).
Wind advisories are likely going to be needed with a moderate risk
for High Wind Warnings. These winds will subside some through the
day Fri, but remain strong enough that loose items could be at
risk for blowing around.

 

 

a lot like valentine's day last year

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

a lot like valentine's day last year

Were gusts 60+? i don't remember being that strong

[CoastalWx]

Definitely wind potential with fropa.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not that anyone asked by i'm kind of psychologically checked out on winter here, anyway.

yeah, friday's cold blah blah wow. 

but at this point, the bigger news story for me is the interminable se ridge and once the epo relaxation and [probable] phase flip takes place, the skies the limit in warm up potential... i'm curious if not outright fascinated in how warm it can get. 

undoubtedly, ...if not just because i said so, we'll end up right on the dividing line between too warm to snow and not warm enough to care.  ...seems almost like more so than anything else, the real "pattern" is an unrelenting banal result to everything.. heh.  annnywho - i'd love to completely annihilate all records if we're going to take a bath one way or the other - 

Make sure the knot is sufficiently tight enough as to not leave you dangling...

[Ginx snewx]

18 Z GFS is quite the front ender and for ski country barely warm front then dry slot then arctic frontal cover up

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

18 Z GFS is quite the front ender and for ski country barely warm front then dry slot then arctic frontal cover up

Seems to be heading towards a shorter duration warm up

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Were gusts 60+? i don't remember being that strong

52-55