Model Mayhem!

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Point and click fetish....

LOL--that was the ZFP.  Here's the p/c.

 

Friday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 5. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm, then sleet likely between 7pm and midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday

Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[Damage In Tolland]

And then a redux on the 23rd! Yikes fir people going skiing next week if right 

[J Paul Gordon]

2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

It's Tuesday and the discussion is extraordinarily certain about the weekend event. Is it really that locked in?

Discussion is about model output I believe.

 

Precisely, but the discussion seems to have it locked in as  a very nearly absolute certainty. Is it simply because of model/ensemble agreement? I'm reading some remarks about flattening of the wave(s), but that's the only hint that things might turn out differently.

I'm interested in understanding the discussion about temps in the high 50'sF for twelve plus hours by some. That's a big jump from low to mid 40'sF for a few hours, or, an even colder solution.

I am NOT looking for wishcasting.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And then a redux on the 23rd! Yikes fir people going skiing next week if right 

Powderfreak organizing a pond skimming contest for next week.

[dryslot]

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Powderfreak organizing a pond skimming contest for next week.

Resort owners emailing patrons to bring bikes instead of skis?

[Ginx snewx]

euro with a 25 degree jump run to run. 

[CoastalWx]

    Last page. 

[J Paul Gordon]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

    Last page. 

Any discussion about the certainty factor? I'm not invested either way, but why SO certain about ripping into the 50's F for 12-18 hours this far out?

[Cold Miser]

17 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Discussion is about model output I believe.

 

Precisely, but the discussion seems to have it locked in as  a very nearly absolute certainty. Is it simply because of model/ensemble agreement? I'm reading some remarks about flattening of the wave(s), but that's the only hint that things might turn out differently.

I'm interested in understanding the discussion about temps in the high 50'sF for twelve plus hours by some. That's a big jump from low to mid 40'sF for a few hours, or, an even colder solution.

I am NOT looking for wishcasting.

Are you talking to yourself again?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Any discussion about the certainty factor? I'm not invested either way, but why SO certain about ripping into the 50's F for 12-18 hours this far out?

Based on what I see, we will warm sector big time. Unless this collapses flat..I don't see how at least near and south of pike aren't torching for 12-18 hrs.

[J Paul Gordon]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Based on what I see, we will warm sector big time. Unless this collapses flat..I don't see how at least near and south of pike aren't torching for 12-18 hrs.

And the likelihood of it collapsing seems vanishingly remote. Let's hope it's not pouring the whole time. It would be quite pleasant if it were that mild without the rain.

 

For the all or nothing crowd, I'd prefer a raging blizzard, but if its gotta warm up, it would be nice if it were dry enough out there to enjoy it.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro picking up on some what looks likely to be some impressive Arctic squalls early Friday morning. 

[J.Spin]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will the resorts have to shut down do you think?

 

Well I don’t think permanently (fingers crossed), but based on the forecast over the next couple of weeks, it’s looking like they would have to close through at least mid-January.  It’s unfortunate timing with the big holiday period looming.  It’s going to be a major financial hit to the local economy, but it is what it is I guess.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any top of the weenie examples of a temperature swing like is being modeled from Friday through Monday?

Wild stuff... I'm guessing it gets muted on both ends to a more "meh" scenario

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, J.Spin said:

 

Well I don’t think permanently (fingers crossed), but based on the forecast over the next couple of weeks, it’s looking like they would have to close through at least mid-January.  It’s unfortunate timing with the big holiday period looming.  It’s going to be a major financial hit to the local economy, but it is what it is I guess.

Ugh.  Hopefully not .  Maybe the warm sectors stay south of you guys . Or at least minimal time in them 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

 

Well I don’t think permanently (fingers crossed), but based on the forecast over the next couple of weeks, it’s looking like they would have to close through at least mid-January.  It’s unfortunate timing with the big holiday period looming.  It’s going to be a major financial hit to the local economy, but it is what it is I guess.

This seems unlikely.  While there certainly look to be some torch times in there over the next 2-3 weeks, there are also significant stretches where snowmaking temps (at least at night) occur.

Even little Wa-Wa can stay open with manmade.    

[JC-CT]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any top of the weenie examples of a temperature swing like is being modeled from Friday through Monday?

Wild stuff... I'm guessing it gets muted on both ends to a more "meh" scenario

Last year, like every storm

[SR Airglow]

33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This seems unlikely.  While there certainly look to be some torch times in there over the next 2-3 weeks, there are also significant stretches where snowmaking temps (at least at night) occur.

Even little Wa-Wa can stay open with manmade.    

Looks like you were an accidental casualty of taking the bait intended for Kevin 

Euro Ens hold on to the cold a little longer up north it looks like Saturday evening. Pretty similar look to the op as far as snow goes.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

FWIw, I haven't seen individual EC ensemble members, but there's several GEFS members that are quite a bit flatter than the OP runs we've seen. Now I wouldn't go hanging your hat on these runs, but it does suggest that at least there is some variance in there, so a somewhat flatter solution isn't impossible...in an era when we complain about the ensembles mimicking the OP runs a lot.

[J Paul Gordon]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

FWIw, I haven't seen individual EC ensemble members, but there's several GEFS members that are quite a bit flatter than the OP runs we've seen. Now I wouldn't go hanging your hat on these runs, but it does suggest that at least there is some variance in there, so a somewhat flatter solution isn't impossible...in an era when we complain about the ensembles mimicking the OP runs a lot.

How would this play out in terms of sensible weather?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

How would this play out in terms of sensible weather?

Flatter equals less time in the warm sector and probably a bit more snow and a bit more icing in the interior. Some of the members never warm sectored us and kept us frozen...that's an extreme that I think is a very low probability, but something less obnoxiously warm than some of these OP runs is certainly not out of the question.

[J Paul Gordon]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Flatter equals less time in the warm sector and probably a bit more snow and a bit more icing in the interior. Some of the members never warm sectored us and kept us frozen...that's an extreme that I think is a very low probability, but something less obnoxiously warm than some of these OP runs is certainly not out of the question.

Thank you. I've been having a bit of a problem following the sheer number of posts. I was under the impression that the warmest solutions were a virtual certainty and wondered how it could be so this far out.

Not looking for confirmation of what I'd like to happen (big time snow, like most everyone else here), just trying to get how the experts know degrees of likelihood at a distance of several days. I get that once we are within three, maybe four, days things tend to lock.

Your clear and simple explanation helps

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Looks like you were an accidental casualty of taking the bait intended for Kevin 

Euro Ens hold on to the cold a little longer up north it looks like Saturday evening. Pretty similar look to the op as far as snow goes.

 

 

LOL dude melts snow to the Canadian border every year around this time. 12 hours in the 40's at worst in ski country

[Damage In Tolland]

GGEM continues to be flat and south . That wouldn't kill like the other solutions. Haven't seen Ukie

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

LOL dude melts snow to the Canadian border every year around this time. 12 hours in the 40's at worst in ski country

Sounds like some other dudes we know

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GGEM continues to be flat and south . That wouldn't kill like the other solutions. Haven't seen Ukie

GGEM was still a good 8-10 hour warm sector...but not as bad as Euro. Ukie was pretty amped.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

LOL dude melts snow to the Canadian border every year around this time. 12 hours in the 40's at worst in ski country

 

[J Paul Gordon]

What blend of models does Taunton favor? 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

so the 10-12 they get before then goes down to 4-6 on top of the feet they have in manmade and natural and you think they will close? Because of 12 hours above freezing?