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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 23rd has looked crappy for days so hopefully nobody got hung up over it. I'd also watch the storm on the 26th, esp interior and NNE. It's not close the shades for everyone.

You know ... I was stinkin' ... this last snow event that nearly got completely eradicated the next day ... really was a "lucky" sort of dice role in the first place. 

The teleconnectors don't draw any kind of base-line look for snow east of the Rockies... What I think transpired is that for about 7 to 10 days we sported a rather robust -EPO, and that loaded Canada well and good with deep cold.  I remember last week posting the Canadian 10-D temp anomalies, and showed that it pretty much spanned the pan-wide continent at some -2 to -6(.4) sd ( average -3 in lay terms).   Idiosyncratic timing did the rest and played favorably for some overrunning....  

Now that we have squarely lost that antecedent blocking up there over Alaska ... heh, kind of makes sense that systems are de-amplifying coming east of the Rockies. ...relaxed heights (temporarily) in the SE or not... 

In fact, if at any point over the next 10 days we end up with a record breaking warm pop I wouldn't be shocked by that.  Rarely do we see EVERY atmospheric teleconnector warm .. interesting.

Edit: well... maybe not... EPO is neutralizing in recent runs so... either way - good for disk golf woot woot!

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol. as if you can have one without the other. if no computer simulations, how would one go about recognizing such a thing? 

Dude, back in the day, mets used to forecast accurately 25 days in advance by analyzing cat behavior.

NWP ruined all of that.

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:

Trends are not our friend today. Still time for a correction but the clock is running out. We've had it pretty good here this dec. lots of snow. I've had more in late nov till now, than I have had in the last two nov-dec seasons combined. 

We will have to see. True the clock is running out. Weather seems to be very unpredictable though. Look at what happened on Saturday more snow than was predicted by the models on Saturday before it did go straight rain and a torch. 

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37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol. as if you can have one without the other. if no computer simulations, how would one go about recognizing such a thing? 

So So True.  What he doesn't understand, is that anything into the future is a simulation...one thing about it is wrong...and well.....

 

2-4 weeks from now...who knows what we will be looking at...but I guess some of these people think they know???

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

SE ridge Dec 26-28 would mean 60's for highs. That's if Euro is right 

 7-9 days out...I wouldn't be worrying about 60's.

 

For the very nice event that just passed on Saturday, Euro was one of the warmer models for quite some time..it ended up trending colder each run....

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29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 7-9 days out...I wouldn't be worrying about 60's.

 

For the very nice event that just passed on Saturday, Euro was one of the warmer models for quite some time..it ended up trending colder each run....

That was entirely different with a storm. This is just a record setting height wise SE ridge. Might not verify , but verbatim that's what it would be. Would even get mild in NNE . If it's right 

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49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was entirely different with a storm. This is just a record setting height wise SE ridge. Might not verify , but verbatim that's what it would be. Would even get mild in NNE . If it's right 

Pretty good Ensemble support for a cutter during that time period. Alot can change at this lead time but the signal is there at the moment.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well damn! My new zone says snow likely on Thursday and then the chance of snow Monday. No mention of rain at all LOL. I hope it's right

Yeah Thursday into Thursday night looks like a nice refresher currently for the northern third of New England on the GFS and NAM. 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_neng_15_zpsnaxgluw4.png

nam_total_precip_neng_29_zps7o0adp5l.png

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