weathafella Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Yeah here in CH it's a full and still decent pack-amazed it survived today but thankfully it will be gone this week. Then we have one more buildup. But I would be ok with today's temps from here on out-felt great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Getting well into the 60's with 850's like +3 and 925's like +8 in Feb doesn't seem right just seems like the threshold for obtaining higher temperatures is becoming less and less. I wonder what the temp profile was like for the old records on this day Yes, I've noticed this. Even earlier this winter when 850s were like -10C, highs were still in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 What's the point of getting all this snow if it only lasts a week. This weather is messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 36 minutes ago, nzucker said: Yes, I've noticed this. Even earlier this winter when 850s were like -10C, highs were still in the mid 30s. I want to start a little research thing on this...I'm sure there is stuff going on but always more fun to do your own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Blowtorch today. Lotta exposed ground now. Maybe a couple inches left in shaded areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 6:20PM and still a decent glow on the western horizon Winter is fading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 6:20PM and still a decent glow on the western horizon Winter is fading Grilling outside tonight with the mild temps reenforces that. Also, the dog it perfectly content to stay out side. Usually in the winter, it's letting her in/out every 15 minutes. That's one of the good things of the warm seasons. She goes out after breakfast and typically doesn't come back in until dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Hit 61.1 for a high IMBY. Currently down to 48. About 3" or so of slush still on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I want to start a little research thing on this...I'm sure there is stuff going on but always more fun to do your own Mid 30s and -10C 850s are nbd with good mixing. That only a delta T of 12C. 850s were higher than +3C in your area today too...more like +6C. Get a sunny downslope dandy day with warm mid-levels and we can torch away...snowpack or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I get people liking the nice weather, but what's up with the defense mechanisms of hoping for all the snow to melt? I personally hate it. I have no problem stating that. I wish we could keep the snow. Those wishing for all the snow to melt seem like they are doing it because of some sort of defensive mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mid 30s and -10C 850s are nbd with good mixing. That only a delta T of 12C. 850s were higher than +3C in your area today too...more like +6C. Get a sunny downslope dandy day with warm mid-levels and we can torch away...snowpack or not. That makes sense. I did notice a few times this winter we had some days where we had some crazy mixing (only noticed it more this winter b/c I've actually been composing high temperatures via mixing heights using bucket instead of rip and reading MOS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I get people liking the nice weather, but what's up with the defense mechanisms of hoping for all the snow to melt? I personally hate it. I have no problem stating that. I wish we could keep the snow. Those wishing for all the snow to melt seem like they are doing it because of some sort of defensive mechanism. Purely chicken reasons here. When the pack gets high I want it higher...but after the high water mark I don't have a lot of use for it anymore. I just have a bunch of muddy, water-logged chickens and flooded paths. The sooner they can free range the better. They can't even dustbathe right now because the blowing snow the other day blew it all against the foundation and under the coop so it's all wet now. Us melters aren't taking your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I get people liking the nice weather, but what's up with the defense mechanisms of hoping for all the snow to melt? I personally hate it. I have no problem stating that. I wish we could keep the snow. Those wishing for all the snow to melt seem like they are doing it because of some sort of defensive mechanism. No. I don't appreciate risking my life every night that freezes after daytime melting. Snowpack is fine for a week or 2 but then it gets boring. For me clear walking not requiring anything but regular shoes is worth plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I just want things to start and get ready for May 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That makes sense. I did notice a few times this winter we had some days where we had some crazy mixing (only noticed it more this winter b/c I've actually been composing high temperatures via mixing heights using bucket instead of rip and reading MOS) MOS sucked today, but it's not surprising this time of year when everything lines up for warmth. Good for you using mixing heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Purely chicken reasons here. When the pack gets high I want it higher...but after the high water mark I don't have a lot of use for it anymore. I just have a bunch of muddy, water-logged chickens and flooded paths. The sooner they can free range the better. They can't even dustbathe right now because the blowing snow the other day blew it all against the foundation and under the coop so it's all wet now. Us melters aren't taking your snow. You'll get your wish later this week. You're already down probably 6-8". By Friday you'll have grass fed hens pecking and picking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: MOS sucked today, but it's not surprising this time of year when everything lines up for warmth. Good for you using mixing heights. I've been practicing with it in the forecast challenge. I'm actually in 8th place right now in Jackson, MS heading into the final week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You'll get your wish later this week. You're already down probably 6-8". By Friday you'll have grass fed hens pecking and picking I started in the upper 20 inches though. Most of that lost was just the new powder that basically just became more wet and dense. That will all freeze up over the next two days solidly. So I'll go into Wednesday with over 20" of glacier. It's not going that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I'm not a fan of the roads that I walk with the dog getting all wet and gross...potholes, etc. Mud season is also just gross. I get that it ends, and in some ways ripping off the band aid quickly is better. This weather is boring, but it is good to get out in just a sweatshirt or,light jacket. I also found an ant in my kitchen today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm not a fan of the roads that I walk with the dog getting all wet and gross...potholes, etc. Mud season is also just gross. I get that it ends, and in some ways ripping off the band aid quickly is better. This weather is boring, but it is good to get out in just a sweatshirt or,light jacket. I also found an ant in my kitchen today I wore shorts today. Was nice to let the legs see the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I don't get it. It's mid Feb and people are reacting like it's mid March and it's all over. Last two days have been dreadful and upcoming week looks pretty warm but gotta hope we can pull off two solid weeks of winter in March. By mid March I'm ready to turn the corner, but right now I feel we're being robbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I started in the upper 20 inches though. Most that was lost was just the new powder that basically just became more wet and dense. That will all freeze up over the next two days solidly. So I'll go into Wednesday with over 20" of glacier. It's not going that quickly. Well maybe if the dews are low, but if the severe weather and high dews come to fruition next that are modeled , certainly by then. Once you expose a few grass patches, the rest of the lawn opens up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've been practicing with it in the forecast challenge. I'm actually in 8th place right now in Jackson, MS heading into the final week Figuring out the mixing level and using mid level temps you can definitely excel in the wx challenge. Mos is generally decent, but you can find certain instances where you can really beat mos. Competing in wx challenge was alot of fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Figuring out the mixing level and using mid level temps you can definitely excel in the wx challenge. Mos is generally decent, but you can find certain instances where you can really beat mos. Competing in wx challenge was alot of fun I nailed day 1 for this city. I think 12z or 18z MOS data had around 68-70F for a high and USL had 71 maybe but from what I calculated I obtained 76 so went with that and that's what the Hugh turned out to be lol. Sometimes it can be a challenge figuring out mixing height...NAM and GFS always seem to yield much different levels and such. Plus the method can hurt if there's clouds, precip or WAA/CAA and such. Matt (H20 town wx or whatever is handle is) taught me the method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 59 for the high here. 58 at BDL and 62 at HFD. I will admit that I enjoyed going out on bikes and playing football today with the boys. However the snow melt was depressing with the mud everywhere so overall it was a more mixed feeling unlike the torch in previous Decembers and January where I was completely disgusted. I Still have pack here in my neighborhood but out on the main roads grass is really starting to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 32F now but high of 56F today. Still good pack but fields and S facing hills are going quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Still 2ft of snow here. Temp got to 43f which didn't do a whole lot. We backdoor tonight and will stay bellow freezing tomorrow. That should man up the pack some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 hours ago, wx2fish said: Figuring out the mixing level and using mid level temps you can definitely excel in the wx challenge. Mos is generally decent, but you can find certain instances where you can really beat mos. Competing in wx challenge was alot of fun 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I nailed day 1 for this city. I think 12z or 18z MOS data had around 68-70F for a high and USL had 71 maybe but from what I calculated I obtained 76 so went with that and that's what the Hugh turned out to be lol. Sometimes it can be a challenge figuring out mixing height...NAM and GFS always seem to yield much different levels and such. Plus the method can hurt if there's clouds, precip or WAA/CAA and such. Matt (H20 town wx or whatever is handle is) taught me the method Winds can be a huge difference maker too. Since you're forecasting max wind speed, MOS will always be too light as it's just showing the hourly sustained. Bufkit can really give you an edge on the mixing depth and resulting potential frequent gusts. I rode consistently solid wind forecast at DDC to a Cinderella 12 seed run to the championship in 2007-2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Finished 247th during the two week stop at PWM that year. Hopefully I've improved some since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 42 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Winds can be a huge difference maker too. Since you're forecasting max wind speed, MOS will always be too light as it's just showing the hourly sustained. Bufkit can really give you an edge on the mixing depth and resulting potential frequent gusts. I rode consistently solid wind forecast at DDC to a Cinderella 12 seed run to the championship in 2007-2008. I'm not a fan at all of using MOS to forecast winds. I def side with bufkit for winds. Sometimes I may slide towards USL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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