December pattern/forecast thread

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In my business, I could care less about 7-8 days out. Need performance inside 3 days where it matters. Especially within 36 hrs or less. Those little differences in temp and precip matter significantly. 

It really wasn't that long ago when we weenie-tagged people for posting D7-D8 threats from OP models. Models improve over time, but we have to resist the urge to pretend that day 7 is the new day 4. It isn't and won't be for a long time.

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The NHem scores I just posted show the exact opposite.

I'm talking about the pattern..not individual storms tracks lol

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's struggling even in the day 4-6 range. Something is wrong with it.

Its still day 4-6 and it seems anecdotal because OceanSt explained and showed proof that its not doing as bad (in fact its better) than the competition.

What are you expecting out of a model at that time frame?

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'm talking about the pattern..not individual storms tracks lol

Yeah and what he posted looked like it was from the 500mb level which is certainly more indicative of the pattern (trough and ridge heights) than individual storm tracks.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah and what he posted looked like it was from the 500mb level which is certainly more indicative of the pattern than individual storm tracks.

If so then I misinterpreted his graph..regardless. the Euro has certainly lost it's invicibiltiy over the last year or so. That can't be argued. It would never , ever be beaten by the GFS in years prior. So we have played catch up to some degree.

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah and what he posted looked like it was from the 500mb level which is certainly more indicative of the pattern (trough and ridge heights) than individual storm tracks.

 

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'm talking about the pattern..not individual storms tracks lol

Yeah, that's 500 mb level scoring. Even if you look at the individual days the Euro beats all comers through day 10. 

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If so then I misinterpreted his graph..regardless. the Euro has certainly lost it's invicibiltiy over the last year or so. That can't be argued. It would never , ever be beaten by the GFS in years prior. So we have played catch up to some degree.

Now if what you are saying here is that the Euro has had some recent struggles with East Coast cyclogenesis, then maybe there's a kernel of truth to it. It could be a cold streak in a bad winter season, or it could be that they tweaked something in the model to improve performance elsewhere and sacrificed the USA.

[WinterWolf]

Obviously, from the scores you posted, it's still the best model out there.

But in somewhat of a defense to Kevin's statement (can't believe I'm defending DIT lol), it doesn't seem quite the same as it once was before it's upgrade.  It used to seem like it could sniff out a storm at 5-6 day lead time...and hold the relatively same/similar solution for run after run. While the other globals would waffle back and forth with it.  Now the Euro seems to do the exact same thing.  It's there-then it's not-then it's there again, then it's there but in an entirely different form than it was originally.  It just didn't seem to do that before the upgrade.  Just saying.  I think that's what he and others mean.  I know that's the way it seems to me more often than it used to.   

[CoastalWx]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If so then I misinterpreted his graph..regardless. the Euro has certainly lost it's invicibiltiy over the last year or so. That can't be argued. It would never , ever be beaten by the GFS in years prior. So we have played catch up to some degree.

There's been plenty of times the gfs beat the euro 7 days out.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There's been plenty of times the gfs beat the euro 7 days out.

Well maybe, but It used to be mets could never look at an op GFS run and still make a good forecast. Now they have to factor it in at least somewhat. 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well maybe, but It used to be mets could never look at an op GFS run and still make a good forecast. Now they have to factor it in at least somewhat. 

That's a good thing. Considering those azzholes across the pond charge an arm and a leg for their data because it's so "elite." Let them eat sh*t. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a good thing. Considering those azzholes across the pond charge an arm and a leg for their data because it's so "elite." Let them eat sh*t. 

Lol. This reminds me of when Will had a massive meltdown on Eastern over this exact thing. Dude lost it. 

Those guys all read these threads 

USA USA!

Making GFS Great again 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a good thing. Considering those azzholes across the pond charge an arm and a leg for their data because it's so "elite." Let them eat sh*t. 

Tell us how you really feel

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a good thing. Considering those azzholes across the pond charge an arm and a leg for their data because it's so "elite." Let them eat sh*t. 

We've got a ways to go, but there is zero reason other than desire why we can't rival that model (one thing Cliff Mass is absolutely right about). 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We've got a ways to go, but there is zero reason other than desire why we can't rival that model (one thing Cliff Mass is absolutely right about). 

GFS is getting better overall. It still has those awful issues in the near term of temps etc that bother the crap out of me. 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We've got a ways to go, but there is zero reason other than desire why we can't rival that model (one thing Cliff Mass is absolutely right about). 

Isn't there a money issue as well?

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is getting better overall. It still has those awful issues in the near term of temps etc that bother the crap out of me. 

Well we still have relatively poor data assimilation, and relative to this thread they haven't re-analyzed the GEFS to improve the ensemble. So you get ensembles that follow the op instead of showing possible outcomes. 

It's hard to tease out a pattern when it changes significantly run to run, like a deterministic model would.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Isn't there a money issue as well?

Maybe currently, but with the Sandy money it was there. It just wasn't made a priority to dramatically improve the GFS or GEFS. I think many would sacrifice a happy hour run for a better overall model. 

[ORH_wxman]

I was looking at the analog patterns on the cpc upper air tools site....both GEFS and Canadian ensembles since they are a little different....and the dates that pop up give a great example of how this pattern could be great or how it could suck. It's a good way to teach how a big latitude gradient in temp anomalies from central Canada to the southern tier of the CONUS increased uncertainty for our own region. 

You have years like 1970, 2008, and 1975 in there but it is mixed with garbage like Dec 1994, 1965, and 1987 as well. This tells me that we will probably have to wait until we get a little bit closer to weed out some of these analogs. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Firstly there is some sort of misconception going on in present conversation - I don't know who said what, just from what's caught my eye.

The misconception is that the Euro boasted - or ever did - good skill beyond D5.  That's never really been the case. It may have performed better than other guidance at times, but at other times it has laid big eggs in that D 6 and beyond more times than I can count. That has always been the case, despite any particular user's present disillusion.

In fact, ... we hammered, ad nauseam, for the past five years or more of weather -related social media that the wheel house for the operational Euro was < ~ 4.5 days; moreover, that its skill, particularly over the E N/A quadrature, dropped off rather rapidly beyond.  We've specifically nailed down it's particular bias of digging heights too deeply over eastern N/A in the late middle range.  F! we just did so yesterday!  my god - too many of you have selective reading skills that borders on irresponsible sloth for snow lust first. I literally believe at times that it's enough of a problem to cause learning disability/ detriment to some individuals... because these aren't new users constantly having to be reminded of the same stuff. 

What a lot of this is...? just venting in a frustrating dearth of weather people want - so blame the models? it's almost comical.  Particularly when as far as I can tell, they've nailed everything happening now, from several days ago. Nothing next week's even happened. wtf 

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Models are honing in on the December 10th time period for the cold air push southward out of Canada.

 

It will be interesting to see how models eject that SW US and MX Shortwave trough and upper level low into the eastern 2/3rd of the US.

 

NAM ejects that upper level low out of SW US faster than most other models have, but they are all ejecting the low out of MX faster and faster each run.

 

The coldest air of the young season starts around the 4th of DEC in the western US and then spreads east through DEC 10th.

 

Models continue to show a massive pattern changing cutter system impacting the region next week.  This storm will deepen, how deep relies on how the jet interacts with the arctic air mass.  The Midwest and OH Valley could have a blizzard while Toronto, Canada sees their pressures fall to around 960mb and damaging winds occur along the East Coast of the US before the arctic air arrives.  Then GFS shows a snowstorm occurring around the 13/14th of DEC.  A lot will change between now and next week, but something to continue to watch out for indeed.

[Hitman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Firstly there is some sort of misconception going on in present conversation - I don't know who said what, just from what's caught my eye.

The misconception is that the Euro boasted - or ever did - good skill beyond D5.  That's never really been the case. It may have performed better than other guidance at times, but at other times it has laid big eggs in that D 6 and beyond more times than I can count. That has always been the case, despite any particular user's present disillusion.

In fact, ... we hammered, ad nauseam, for the past five years or more of weather -related social media that the wheel house for the operational Euro was < ~ 4.5 days; moreover, that its skill, particularly over the E N/A quadrature, dropped off rather rapidly beyond.  We've specifically nailed down it's particular bias of digging heights too deeply over eastern N/A in the late middle range.  F! we just did so yesterday!  my god - too many of you have selective reading skills that borders on irresponsible sloth for snow lust first. I literally believe at times that it's enough of a problem to cause learning disability/ detriment to some individuals... because these aren't new users constantly having to be reminded of the same stuff. 

What a lot of this is...? just venting in a frustrating dearth of weather people want - so blame the models? it's almost comical.  Particularly when as far as I can tell, they've nailed everything happening now, from several days ago. Nothing next week's even happened. wtf 

 

F the euro.  1/25/15

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Models continue to show a massive pattern changing cutter system impacting the region next week.  This storm will deepen, how deep relies on how the jet interacts with the arctic air mass.  The Midwest and OH Valley could have a blizzard while Toronto, Canada sees their pressures fall to around 960mb and damaging winds occur along the East Coast of the US before the arctic air arrives.  Then GFS shows a snowstorm occurring around the 13/14th of DEC.  A lot will change between now and next week, but something to continue to watch out for indeed.

You tend to go to extremes with your outlooks but I agree that out in la la land (day 10+) interior SNE and CNE get a decent start on winter with one or two plowable events. Maybe not for you and the coast quite yet, but the pattern has good potential. 

Defintely track dependent, of course, but the chances (current modeling) are there, just need the ducks to line up. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Well that's a slightly different Euro run than 12z .From cutter to cold outbreak and snow in SNE in 12 hours lol

[Lava Rock]

Models are honing in on the December 10th time period for the cold air push southward out of Canada.

Can't wait

[IrishRob17]

11 hours ago, Hitman said:

F the euro.  1/25/15

 

Ugh, and I'm sick to my stomach again, thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd pass out at the keyboard for about 10 days or so.

[codfishsnowman]

13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Ugh, and I'm sick to my stomach again, thanks.

ugh...I was even closer to the goods but not close enough....bad bad memories, so bad

[Typhoon Tip]

D 5 system ... still a lot of operational version spread. 

Euro: does bring back to the table a shallower...more sheared looking deep layer structure ... up and over the SE ridge.  Some may recall that was precisely what we discussed could happen yesterday, after the 12z verions completely removed much of anything.  That huge continuity shift from previous run(s) in its self was an operational Meteorologist's 101 red flag - some times those flags can be ignored; now isn't one of those times.  It's a pattern intrinsically rife with timing f-ups.  Anyway, one aspect I noticed ... the differences between the 12z and 00z runs over the last 24 hours is really coming down to timing and interaction between the nearer term quasi-closed SW low and how it interacts with the next amplitude slated to dig into the Great Basic area some two or so days later.  The 12z yesterday held it back, then squirted it out along the front of the baroclinic wall ... lifting it through the Lakes as a dent in the flow - damping feature.  Contrasting, the 00z conserves more of it, with also less hold-back; such that it ejects out through Texas ... then rides up (sloped positive) over the SE ridge. This evolution evolves a pseudo Miller A wave that rockets to the NE coast.  The atmosphere is marginal at best though ... As is, likely cold rain with some snow on the far NW fringe type of deal.  Hey, it's better than banal! 

I wouldn't know which path is best ... but would tend to favor the latter.  For one, completely sans any event at all is inherently stupid, but .. that structural detail the Euro has is less theoretically unsettling compared to the previous mammoth system over-top-top +1 SD SE ridge look it was selling two days ago.  In fact, positive sloped, shearing system is actually just about exactly what typically happens to systems that are forced east into these negative PNAP regimes. 

Lastly, it's still not technically inside the better performance window... That begins at 00z and ramps up thereafter.   

NOGAPS:  ...yeah, ... maybe. Nothing's impossible, but that hardly seem likely. I am singularly impressed that this thread didn't blow up by another four pages overnight when that depiction came out.  'Very good glasshopper - You learning'  Still, wouldn't it be awesome if it was the NOGAPS and not the Euro that was the awesome model?  

GGEM/GFS: These run aren't terrible, though instead of taking the ejected/old opening low through the ridge while damping it... why not lift it more over the top, like the Euro?  

[ORH_wxman]

Meh, most snow weenies in here would delete their account if they got NYC winter snowfall...different expectations.

 

At any rate, nothing very intriguing so far on the 12z suite. The cutter is still there for late next week on GFS but the GGEM is kind of intriguing in that it ejects the southwest s/w far enough ahead of the western trough to try and bring a storm up the coast...it kind of fizzles though. It looks kind of bizarre anyway, so I probably wouldn't read much into it.