40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Chances on the horizon on Dec 1 in sne is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Always liked the tail end Charlie type storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Always liked the tail end Charlie type storms LOL. What don't you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL. What don't you like. back seat drivers, Bud light, chick flicks, bad baseball, deep powder with a freezing rain 1/2" crust while skiing., whiners and weasels for a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL. What don't you like. Getting porked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Getting porked Ever wonder why he has 100k posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Ever wonder why he has 100k posts... Too much free time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 8 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Too much free time I wish. Not hard with mobile capabilities. I also don't spend much time doing social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 6z GFS a little more robust with the Tuesday deal. Euro is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z GFS a little more robust with the Tuesday deal. Euro is OTS. What you think about Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro is more robust with the snows Sunday night/Monday than GFS/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro is more robust with the snows Sunday night/Monday than GFS/GGEM Robust is a little strong...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What you think about Thursday? Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 I'm not holding my breath on Monday but perhaps somebody can manage something light. Hopefully we can find that delicate balance on Tuesday with enough high pressure in place to maintain a marginally cold air mass without the energy shearing out and splitting to the northwest and the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rain. Then what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Then what? Then gets colder. I don't see anything exciting wx wise quite yet. However, it looks like the CONUS will be pretty darn chilly by late next week which maybe sets the stage down the road? It all depends on storm track. It's definitely a huge change across the CONUS from previous furnace Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Saw in the nyk forum long range models look really warm with a positive epo building. Hopefully we get ao and pna help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Saw in the nyk forum long range models look really warm with a positive epo building. Hopefully we get ao and pna help. Huh???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just now, weathafella said: Huh???? He is talking about weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just now, Ginx snewx said: He is talking about weeklies Oh ok. I don't think about them too much given the difficulty predicting MJO which is what they are based on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Saw in the nyk forum long range models look really warm with a positive epo building. Hopefully we get ao and pna help. I'd suggest not taking too much from some of those posters. Only a select few of them know what they are talking about. But those few that do, are very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: He is talking about weeklies Yeah weeklies were hideous. But week 3/4 have been changing so much that it is difficult to have any confidence in them. They have struggled beyond the EPS timeframe...and the EPS at d15 look quite good so as long as that is the case, I'd be skeptical of a sudden flip to an oven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Saw in the nyk forum long range models look really warm with a positive epo building. Hopefully we get ao and pna help. That's not good. Isn't the EPO one of the strongest influences of our winter weather here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Weeklies need to be taken with a grain of salt. Just a week or two ago people were disrobing to week 5 and 6. They are struggling with the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Some of the metrics I saw that mike V uses has the tropical forcing really not changing much..yet the weeklies flip that quick? Just seems a little questionable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 too much info can be a bad thing in weenieland. went from a couple models 2x a day years ago to so many models from every country run 4x a day plus weekly monthly and yearly forecasts. maybe weeklies have always been around and its just the access to them that is the issue, but i see them posted and discussed at nausea everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Heh, are we really explaining why the Euro weeklies are anything all ? Pretty funny.. I know, I know, not snowing = apoplexy. I've noticed sometimes a tendency, tho; that frustration finds a release valve by turning to analyzing, and impugning, specific bias traits of different modeling resources. Frankly, not that anyone asked but I consider any product that puts "Weeklies" in the suffix-title behind the value of any given 84 hour NAM (might actually be fun to compare those verification scores..instead of mere colloquial jests). Thing is, ...like Will and I were mentioning yesterday, there might be times when some extended lead ideas come along with some enhancing confidence; I just don't see how the Euro weeklies could ever benefit from outside signals (like supporting teleconnectors), unless perhaps they are 'fitting' in with perhaps multi-decadal canvas. What I mean by that is, if the AMO or PDO are meandering into their longer term cyclic behavior, a 'Weeklies' package that looks like a better correlation "might" have some extra footing...? same applies to ENSO ...etc. AO multi-decade, all of there comparisons. Personally I've never bothered to look at that stuff deeply enough (for one reason, I don't have access to the EW's). Hm. Might be interesting to try. Otherwise, as just a spectator of Weekly -related posting content over the years, my retrospective impression is that (n-depictions)/n-occurrences = right around 50/50 chance of any given cycle. In climate parlance ...50/50 = 'N/S', no skill. But, that's just an impression. My perspective on matters doesn't count for much, so don't throw flame at me because I may be violating the covenant of the EW. One thing I'm sure of...when the patterns hitting hard and everyone's happy (however rarely that seems to be...), no one every posts EW -related material that I have seen. See how that works? Not snowing starts a weird blame game. Anyway, yesterday's GFS cycles(s) all three of them, seemed to offer a slice of divining winter-light shining through a crack in the torturous dungeon wall. I still see that as true in this 00z run from last night. It's really interesting how the last three days of that particular model's cycling has evolved next week's overall events. Recall ... back whence there were two distinct intervals: one was the opening, quasi-closed low in the SW; subsequently, the big stem-winder in the NP/Lakes region a couple days later. As of now, we have those two sort of sensibly combining really into a single event, where each is a single pulse of QPF mechanics nested within a general impression to the public of inclement weather, ...all of which precedes a polar-arctic outbreak... Then of course, ...the Euro. Best metaphor for this run is like a rock skipping off a pond wrt to how the westerlies butt up against the seemingly interminable SE ridge. Talk about stubborn. Wow. It's like a prize fight. The westerlies and the SE ridge exchanging blow after blow, and I'm wondering which one (in the model depiction) finally caves.. So far, neither has, and each run just crashes the compression of the heights ever more... now we're balancing the geostrophic wind to some 100 kts from California to Virginia rather then allowing the +PNAP to set. In the late 1990s we went through something like this, a period when SE heights were constantly resistant to digging. It actually spanned a couple few winters in there. This was post 1995-1996 ... (yes, we had gem events in those years, nothwithstanding). Funny thing is, when I look the Euro...you can really see it through the animation much more clearly, how the height wall that encompasses the Gulf/west Carribean up and adjacent SW Atl. Basin is really sort of remaining unscathed, safely below the frenzied westerlies "skipping off the roof" up in latitude. I just i don't know i think the GFS shows more erosion of that in the 200 hour range and that's been sort of a consistent affectation if not depiction for the extended. That does sort of collocate with the 10 day thing others have mentioned ...so maybe finally a "things look better mid month on" will finally actually look better this time. Either way, for me...we need to change that circulation construct, otherwise we stay in claw and scrape mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: too much info can be a bad thing in weenieland. went from a couple models 2x a day years ago to so many models from every country run 4x a day plus weekly monthly and yearly forecasts. maybe weeklies have always been around and its just the access to them that is the issue, but i see them posted and discussed at nausea everywhere. isn't that the truth, I remember back in march of 93 about the eta latching on to the idea of a triple phased storm event from Brad Field several days out I also remember waiting with baited breath for the 4pm updates from noaa but nowadays that info would be almost ripe sometimes I miss the simplicity of less information, in fact in jan of 1988 I can still remember the late great Charlie Bagley saying that a snowstorm of a few to several inches was going to come north to give us a plowable event around 7 pm the night before when the noon forecast had us with perhaps a dusting and flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 Tip has some serious time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.