moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: MPM probably averages around 75-80". ORH is 70". Yup--that's exactly where it is, Will. Just a hair lower than MoneyPit NE. Of courser, the royal screwing we've had the last couple years will have shfited things a bit.. We're do for some equalizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: MPM probably averages around 75-80". ORH is 70". Over say the last ten years or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: SNE like it's suppose to. Heavy snow in NW Mass, lighter as you go east and south. Now if only it can play out that way. It should and it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Over say the last ten years or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It should and it will. It seems we are (appropriately) heading for a climo step down gradient this winter that will build snow pack from NW to SE. Kind of due anyway. Hopefully everyone cashes in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Over say the last ten years or so? Yeah what Bob said. Cherry picking. But yes, ORH has def averaged more than them in the past 10 years. Anyways this is off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 WE are all due for a large coverage of a white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It seems we are (appropriately) heading for a climo step down gradient this winter that will build snow pack from NW to SE. Kind of due anyway. Hopefully everyone cashes in the end. That's how I'm seeing things right now from 35kft. I don't see anything to be alarmed by. I see the GL and C/NNE doing rather well this month. Flow still looks very zonal through mid month which would favor the northern tier but by mid month we may see some west coast ridging develop which would be a better pattern for a larger portion of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Unfortunately "being due" has absolutely no bearing on how 2016 will turn out. Xmas is too far away to get any idea right now. We could easily have a great snowy period from 12/5-12/18 and then have it torched by a Grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: WE are all due for a large coverage of a white Christmas Why? Statistically, the further north and west you go has a much higher chance at a white Christmas. Regardless of the developing pattern, the odds are still better there. I'd say the odds of a white Christmas on the outer cape are well under 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Will did I not say we are due, that is all I said, I didn't say it will happen did I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I didn't even mention a specific location, geez you people don't read my statements, I said a large portion of New England could be in for a white Christmas this year, which hasn't been regular for at least the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Unfortunately "being due" has absolutely no bearing on how 2016 will turn out. Xmas is too far away to get any idea right now. We could easily have a great snowy period from 12/5-12/18 and then have it torched by a Grinch storm. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 You people love driving the weenies away, more than 75% of the conversations that are in here are because we are all weenies at heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: WE are all due for a large coverage of a white Christmas 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will did I not say we are due, that is all I said, I didn't say it will happen did I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I would put the odds at a miller B snowstorm occurring at greater than 15% right now given all three major computer models have a storm in the same time period 216-240 across New England, EURO is snowiest with the CMC in between and the GFS the warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will did I not say we are due Really? 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: WE are all due for a large coverage of a white Christmas Anyways enough of this argument. This is useless for this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 James, put down the keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I'm fine Ray, I am fine. No keyboard throwing tonight, just looking forward to the next set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah what Bob said. Cherry picking. But yes, ORH has def averaged more than them in the past 10 years. Anyways this is off topic. Glad you lived there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: lol funniest post this week, love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I'm not a big fan of the we are due argument either. there's no justice and climatology doesn't work that way it's actually 100 different variations of injustice ... divided by 100. We're living it right now case in point. we haven't had drought numbers in three months or more really; yet technically we are still in a drought for the 12 month because last of summers deficit. meanwhile streams and rivers are flowing bank full, while it's only the reservoirs that are still low. We may never get a "correction event" so to speak. When by all intents and purposes by that same argument we should be due. Things don't usually work out that way; sometimes they do but rarely so. We may make up for the dry over the next 12 months gradually painfully slowly having never seen any kind a correction event, having never gotten our due. Then somebody out there in time will say, "see we were due" but be totally wrong. Every once in a blue moon ... we'llbe 20 winters behind and will then get get 30 feet of snow in a single snowstorm. But given all the chaos that happens from event to event and all the different things that cause QP to verify or not spread out over time those kinds of things are just luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I don't think when someone uses the "we're due" angle that they're making a forecast so much as they're saying don't be surprised if it happens.....and, like weenies will do, have a little hope in there to make it exciting......but everyone in here knows that so nobody is surprised really....it's fun and keeps us interested.....we all know how much to temper wish and when to do it......right now I feel like we're due for a great winter Make Winter Great Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Unfortunately "being due" has absolutely no bearing on how 2016 will turn out. Xmas is too far away to get any idea right now. We could easily have a great snowy period from 12/5-12/18 and then have it torched by a Grinch storm. First we need the snowy period. In my area, if there were 12"+ OG on 12/18 I'd give 99-to-1 odds for a white Christmas, even though the near-inevitable Grinch would make it messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Back to troughing near AK and into the GOAK at the end of the EPS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Back to troughing near AK and into the GOAK at the end of the EPS run. that is not good right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Wow, it looks like December is another warm month according to last night's runs. Interesting, because the Nina has pulsed way down in the last few days...it's barely discernible on the visible maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 12 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: that is not good right? Depends on if you like wintery or mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 16 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: that is not good right? Still enough flow from the NW aloft. Hopefully the changed is being rushed...but the weeklies hinted at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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