PTC Matthew

[heavy_wx]

10 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Gotcha. Thanks for the info. 

I think those simple models, additionally including the BAMs (beta and advection models), are still there mostly for historical purposes as they were once used as benchmarks for comparison with the latest NWP models.

[airmarci]

8 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

I think those simple models, additionally including the BAMs (beta and advection models), are still there mostly for historical purposes as they were once used as benchmarks for comparison with the latest NWP models.

Even so, I'm not sure why they bother. I personally tend to ignore them due to their dynamical deficiencies/idealized nature.

[Derecho!]

We are talking models from the 70s and 80s I believe....I hate seeing them on spaghetti plots the public sees. Really should be deleted.

[RU848789]

21 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

We are talking models from the 70s and 80s I believe....I hate seeing them on spaghetti plots the public sees. Really should be deleted.

Agreed.  I also wish they'd (I assume this is from Tropical Tidbits) show the ECMWF/Euro on those plots.  I don't see it on those plots, in general (yes, I know it's not out yet for 12Z), unless I'm completely blind. Was just discussing this elsewhere and was wondering if it's a licensing/IP issue, even though some of the model output is available on TT.  

[PackGrad05]

The other thing to remember is that all the "lines" on the models show the CENTER of the storm...

If the CENTER is offshore, inland areas will still see effects of heavy rain and gusty winds...   
As the storm moves north, I expect its wind field and precip shield to expand.  

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Matthew's eye is really starting to clear out.  

[hlcater]

Finally done with its pseudo ERC? The inner eyeball kinda weakened,  moved outward toward and was absorbed by a much stronger outer eyewall. Not really an ERC by standard definition, but there is a new eyewall in place.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Would be crazy to see it hit the OBX and then hit NYC.

Not really. Floyd and Irene both did the same exact thing. 

What's interesting is how expansive the wind and rain is forecasted to be on the NW side thanks to the interaction with the trough. The last few close misses have featured much more compact systems.

[jojo762]

Back up to 140, 941mb at 11am EDT. Appears that the NHC currently anticipates a land fall on the OBX by D5.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z UKMET ENS west.  Some members now with a track similar to Floyd from SC up.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z UKMET ENS west.  Some members now with a track similar to Floyd from SC up.

Hardly any OTS ensembles, that's worrying.

[NJwx85]

Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Hardly any OTS ensembles, that's worrying.

It's been locked into that solution for days.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z UKMET ENS west.  Some members now with a track similar to Floyd from SC up.

I continue to be fascinated with how far west the UKMET has been with this all along. Question is going to be whether the model is right or wrong with the more undulating "S" shape vs a smaller curve and OTS solution. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Flyod and Hazel are now showing up as analogs.  The ridge over Bermuda was analyzed by the morning sounding as being stronger than modeled.  

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Flyod and Hazel are now showing up as analogs.  The ridge over Bermuda was analyzed by the morning sounding as being stronger than modeled.  

Likely a product of Matthew being as strong as it is. Helps reinforce it.

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Flyod and Hazel are now showing up as analogs.  The ridge over Bermuda was analyzed by the morning sounding as being stronger than modeled.  

Likely a product of Matthew being as strong as it is. Helps reinforce it.

[LoveSN+]

The NAM really isn't designed for disseminating tropical weather, but rather for mid-latitude weather. Personally, I don't even look at it for tropical.

[NJwx85]

Basically moving due North on the latest loop, just East of the 75th parallel. I would be very worried if I live in Western Haiti.

[Suncat]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Flyod and Hazel are now showing up as analogs.  The ridge over Bermuda was analyzed by the morning sounding as being stronger than modeled.  

I take it it that a strong Bermuda ridge will influence a stronger drift to the west.  Also, with Matthew projected to follow the Gulf Stream north, I would think the warmer water temperatures would contribute to it becoming a major hurricane again...or am I missing something?

[ncskywarn]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Flyod and Hazel are now showing up as analogs.  The ridge over Bermuda was analyzed by the morning sounding as being stronger than modeled.  

It will be interesting to see if the 12z GFS model run picks up on this and shifts West.

[NJwx85]

Mathew is now entering the area of the highest oceanic heat content that he's crossed to date. Given that it appears the core will miss Jamaica, and that it appears the ERC has completed, I see no reason why it can't make another run at CAT 5 before interaction with Haiti.

 

 

[rockchalk83]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Basically moving due North on the latest loop, just East of the 75th parallel. I would be very worried if I live in Western Haiti.

While it looks like Haiti will avoid the catastrophic winds, they will still see tropical storm force winds (at the surface, hurricane winds on ridge tops and other elevated areas) on top of the incredible rains. This is going to be a humanitarian disaster there, I'm afraid. 

[downeastnc]

44 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The other thing to remember is that all the "lines" on the models show the CENTER of the storm...

If the CENTER is offshore, inland areas will still see effects of heavy rain and gusty winds...   
As the storm moves north, I expect its wind field and precip shield to expand.  

 

 

I live exactly 100 miles west of Hatteras, I have never had winds over 30-40 mph from a storm off the coast or even right along the OBX/Emerald Isle with the exception of Irene who was giving us gust to 50 before she made landfall.....every other time in order to get winds gusting over 40 regularly the center has had to come onshore....even rainfall is iffy depending on the storm and its track. I wont expect much of anything unless the center comes onshore west of Lookout.

[NortheastPAWx]

The NHC track shows a NNE bend once he gets above 30N.

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Flyod and Hazel are now showing up as analogs.  The ridge over Bermuda was analyzed by the morning sounding as being stronger than modeled.  

Hazel has been showing up as the #1 analog for days now

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

4 minutes ago, Suncat said:

I take it it that a strong Bermuda ridge will influence a stronger drift to the west.  Also, with Matthew projected to follow the Gulf Stream north, I would think the warmer water temperatures would contribute to it becoming a major hurricane again...or am I missing something?

NHC has it as a major north of the Bahamas but weakening. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

I live exactly 100 miles west of Hatteras, I have never had winds over 30-40 mph from a storm off the coast or even right along the OBX/Emerald Isle with the exception of Irene who was giving us gust to 50 before she made landfall.....every other time in order to get winds gusting over 40 regularly the center has had to come onshore....even rainfall is iffy depending on the storm and its track. I wont expect much of anything unless the center comes onshore west of Lookout.

That's because most of the time down there you're still dealing with almost an entirely tropical system. Once Mathew reaches further North and extra tropical transition begins, the wind field and rain shield will expand dramatically. Every model that shows Mathew interacting with the trough expands both fields hundreds of miles from the center. Just look at the last two GFS runs verbatim, where the heaviest rains are well removed from the core.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

The NHC track shows a NNE bend once he gets above 30N.

I'm certain that if the cone went out further than five days it would have shown a more Northerly track towards OBX and then up the Mid-Atlantic coast.

[Joe4alb]

NORCROSS

 

Matthew – Slow Movement Increases Coastal Threat

Intense Hurricane Matthew is finally moving - slowly and painfully toward the north. It will increasingly impact Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today with torrential life-threatening rain over those mountainous countries. Tomorrow the core of the hurricane is going to come close to Guantanamo Naval Base in eastern Cuba. Then the Bahamas are in line for a very hard hit beginning late tomorrow in the southern part of the country spreading north over the next two days.

The potential for catastrophic damage and loss of life in these countries is high.

Matthew defied the models last night and refused to get moving on schedule. This slow movement has two effects: 1) The steering flow that will control how close the hurricane gets to Florida and the Southeast coast has a chance to evolve, and 2) the waves and high water will pound the coastlines of the islands and the Southeast for days, meaning coastal damage is likely even without a direct hit.

The evolving steering flow has increased the threat of significant impacts to the U.S. coast. A high-pressure system over the Atlantic is forecast to get stronger as Matthew enters the Bahamas. The stronger it gets, the closer the hurricane is pushed toward Florida. We’ve seen that trend in the morning models – increasing the possibility of Matthew’s strong winds coming over or near the coast.

The National Hurricane Center cone just brushes the coast this morning from the Palm Beaches north to the Carolinas. The message here is that core of the hurricane is still most likely to stay offshore, but any track of a powerful hurricane over the left side of the cone will have significant impact on land.

Remember, on average the center of the hurricane stays inside the cone only 2/3 of the time. The rest of the time the cone is wrong. And even more importantly, the bad weather from any strong hurricane reaches outside the cone.

We will see how the forecasts evolve later today, but everybody on the east coast of Florida and up to the Carolinas needs to get their mind around the possibility of some level of impact from Matthew, and possibly significant impact.

On the current schedule, winds slowly pick up in Miami on Wednesday with the possibility of winds gusting over 40 mph, coastal flooding, and at least squalls of heavy rain peaking Thursday and improving Friday. The threat moves up the coast increasing in the Carolinas over the weekend.

The aggravation factor is very high with Matthew because it is moving so slowly. There have certainly been sluggish strong hurricanes before, but none in the modern era where we’re hanging on every computer model and spaghetti plot, which makes it worse.

We have to accept the fact that forecasts are slowly going to fall into place with a slow-moving hurricane. We cannot know exactly what’s going to happen at the coast, but given what we do know, it is crazy not to prepare for a stretch of bad weather with the power out, and be ready to take action if the track becomes more threatening.

The potential impact on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are completely unknown, beyond the expectation of very high surf and coastal erosion.

The only good thing about a slow-moving storm is that it is not going to pounce. There will be time to get ready. Think of the extra time as a gift, and don’t look a gift storm in the mouth.

This update was prepared Monday morning, October 3. Please check in with The Weather Channel, your local media, the National Hurricane Center, and your local National Weather Service office.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

NHC has it as a major north of the Bahamas but weakening. 

Which makes little sense given how high the OHC is even into the Northern Bahamas. Both the GFS and Euro show a strengthening system approaching the Southeast coast in 4-5 days.