Intensewind002 Posted October 31, 2020 If they actually had recon in the WPAC i could see this storm having something like an 875-885 mb pressure at its peak intensity, and probably something close to Patricia in terms of windspeed 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2020 22 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said: Almost did with Dorian and with AGW it’s way more likely. We did actually have such an intense monster hit the Florida Keys in 1935. Just didn’t have the technology then to accurately measure its intensity. Way before AGW became all the rage and will happen again, regardless; just simply a matter of time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bhs1975 Posted October 31, 2020 If they actually had recon in the WPAC i could see this storm having something like an 875-885 mb pressure at its peak intensity, and probably something close to Patricia in terms of windspeedI think this one was stronger than Typhoon Tip. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said: I think this one was stronger than Typhoon Tip. As many others have alluded to...I wish the U.S. could make a financial arrangement whereby Recon would fly into the strongest Typhoons that are genuinely threatening land like Haiyan, Meranti, and Goni. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2020 24 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: If they actually had recon in the WPAC i could see this storm having something like an 875-885 mb pressure at its peak intensity, and probably something close to Patricia in terms of windspeed What really stands out about this system is that it literally made landfall at its peak extreme intensity. Truly remarkable system, and I fear for those unfortunate souls who are having to endure its wrath! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormChaser4Life Posted October 31, 2020 That island definitely impacted Goni. Eye has shrink considerably after passage over it. Hopefully this can bring the intensity down some but regardless this will still be a catastrophic cat 4-5 across the Philippines 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted October 31, 2020 Landfall microwave courtesy of Bachmeier @ CIMSS. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormChaser4Life Posted October 31, 2020 Goni has definitely degraded quite a bit on satellite in its inner core. Curious what the intensity is now Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vortex95 Posted November 1, 2020 Goni as strong as Haiyan? Going strictly by satellite here. I did a comparison of EIR and BD geostationary imagery (4 km resolution) at Goni's and Haiyan's peak intensity of 170 kt. Goni EIR 10/31/20 18z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmirimg/2020wp22_4kmirimg_202010311800.gif Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1830z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmirimg/2013wp31_4kmirimg_201311071830.gif Goni BD 10/31/20 18z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmsrbdc/2020wp22_4kmsrbdc_202010311800.jpg Haiyan BD 11/7/13 1830z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmsrbdc/2013wp31_4kmsrbdc_201311071830.jpg Haiyan looks more symmetrical with a thicker/colder CDO ring and warmer/clearer eye. ----- Comparison of Polar EIR imagery (1 km resolution) Goni EIR 10/31/20 1225z https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmirimg/2020wp22_1kmirimg_202010311225.gif Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1640z https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/1kmirimg/2013wp31_1kmirimg_201311071640.gif Polar imagery is not at the same time but still Haiyan looks so much more impressive overall for its cold COD ring and a warmer/clearer eye overall. Geostationary imagery for Goni at 18z does not suggest its satellite presentation improved to this level from 1225z. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted November 1, 2020 Haiyan was on its own level. I sure wish they could have gotten a recon plane in there. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TexMexWx Posted November 2, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/WXappraiser/status/1323217109111894017 Destroyed radar dome and obliterated trees in Catanduanes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Morris Posted November 22, 2020 Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h. https://t.co/IqtOEWXsSS 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted November 22, 2020 Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h. https://t.co/IqtOEWXsSSIt's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Calderon Posted November 22, 2020 I've been tracking that from over here because I'm responsible for that region & JTWC dropped the ball big time. 2 days ago there were 2 well-defined clusters with evident surface circulation, and in the span of 2 hours last night, one group of storms exploded & closed off the eye. It was bombs away very fast then. Already forecasting flooding in Djibouti, because well, it happens in a scenario like this with ease over there. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CheeselandSkies Posted November 23, 2020 It would seem insane RI close to land is not just an Atlantic/GoM phenomenon this year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shaggy Posted December 14, 2020 Fiji looks to be on the receiving end of a cat 3 landfall in a couple of days if the track forecast holds. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted December 15, 2020 Fiji looks to be on the receiving end of a cat 3 landfall in a couple of days if the track forecast holds.Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale. JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shaggy Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale. JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction. Yeah forecast to peak at 140kts and landfall at around 120kts. Gonna be a bad hit for Fiji. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shaggy Posted December 16, 2020 Yeah gonna be a big hit for Fiji. Hopefully the eye passes between the islands but either way it looks like someone takes the eyewall of a 130+kt cyclone. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shaggy Posted December 17, 2020 Landfall at 130kt Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
