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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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That island definitely impacted Goni. Eye has shrink considerably after passage over it. Hopefully this can bring the intensity down some but regardless this will still be a catastrophic cat 4-5 across the Philippines 

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Goni as strong as Haiyan?  Going strictly by satellite here.

I did a comparison of EIR and BD geostationary imagery (4 km resolution)
at Goni's and Haiyan's peak intensity of 170 kt.
 
 
 
Haiyan looks more symmetrical with a thicker/colder CDO ring and warmer/clearer eye.
 
-----
 
Comparison of Polar EIR imagery (1 km resolution)
 
 
Polar imagery is not at the same time but still Haiyan looks so much more
impressive overall for its cold COD ring and a warmer/clearer eye overall. 
Geostationary imagery for Goni at 18z does not suggest its satellite
presentation improved to this level from 1225z.
 
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Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. 

 

LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. 

According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h. https://t.co/IqtOEWXsSS

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Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. 
 
LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. 
According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h. https://t.co/IqtOEWXsSS
It's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure.
b66843a313d9ecaceae4de750012f974.jpg
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I've been tracking that from over here because I'm responsible for that region & JTWC dropped the ball big time. 2 days ago there were 2 well-defined clusters with evident surface circulation, and in the span of 2 hours last night, one group of storms exploded & closed off the eye. It was bombs away very fast then. Already forecasting flooding in Djibouti, because well, it happens in a scenario like this with ease over there. 

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Fiji looks to be on the receiving end of a cat 3 landfall in a couple of days if the track forecast holds.
Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale.

JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction.657f4c797d0e18ae137b9ae8a760cd93.gif
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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale. emoji102.png

JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction.657f4c797d0e18ae137b9ae8a760cd93.gif

Yeah forecast to peak at 140kts and landfall at around 120kts. Gonna be  a bad hit for Fiji.

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Yeah gonna be a big hit for Fiji. Hopefully the eye passes between the islands but either way it looks like someone takes the eyewall of a 130+kt cyclone.

20201216_130450.jpg

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Surigae is a beast. ADTv9 shows CI T# is 8.0 with estimated pressure of 890mb and winds of 170 kts. I've not been able to find the official 12Z pressure estimate yet, but JTWC is saying 155 kts.

PmmiePj.gif

91daFMh.gif

ADT90 LIST 02W.ODT CKZ=YES
=====    ADT-Version 9.0 =====
                  ----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- --------Tno/CI Rules-------- -Temperature-                    
           Time         MSLP/Vmax   Fnl Adj Ini   Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd   ET   ST   Cntr   Mean   Scene  EstRMW   MW   Storm Location  Fix
   Date    (UTC)   CI  (CKZ)/(kts)  Tno Raw Raw    Limit  Flag Wkng Flag Flag Region  Cloud  Type    (km)  Score   Lat     Lon    Mthd    Sat   VZA
2021APR17 054000  7.2  916.7 146.0  7.2 7.7 7.9  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  10.69 -84.01  EYE     18 IR  97.0   11.36 -130.19  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.1 
2021APR17 061000  7.3  913.5 149.0  7.3 7.8 8.0  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  16.61 -84.24  EYE     20 IR  97.0   11.35 -130.10  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.1 
2021APR17 064000  7.4  910.3 152.0  7.4 7.8 7.9  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  14.37 -83.97  EYE     20 IR  97.0   11.43 -130.07  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.2 
2021APR17 070000  7.5  907.1 155.0  7.5 7.9 8.0  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  18.17 -83.19  EYE     20 IR  97.0   11.55 -130.03  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.4 
2021APR17 074000  7.7  900.5 161.0  7.7 7.8 7.8  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF   9.07 -83.17  EYE     18 IR  97.0   11.58 -129.95  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.4 
2021APR17 081000  7.8  897.2 164.0  7.8 7.9 8.0  3.2T/18hr OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  14.12 -83.98  EYE     18 IR  97.0   11.62 -129.81  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.6 
2021APR17 084000  7.8  897.2 164.0  7.8 7.9 8.0  3.2T/18hr OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  17.99 -84.15  EYE     18 IR  70.7   11.67 -129.78  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.7 
2021APR17 091000  7.8  897.2 164.0  7.8 7.9 7.9  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  10.49 -83.78  EYE     19 IR  70.7   11.74 -129.72  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.8 
2021APR17 094000  7.8  897.1 164.0  7.8 7.9 7.9  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF   9.30 -84.51  EYE     21 IR  79.9   11.80 -129.67  ARCHER   HIM-8 18.9 
2021APR17 101000  7.9  893.7 167.0  7.9 8.0 8.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  16.97 -84.71  EYE     20 IR  79.9   11.87 -129.51  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.0 
2021APR17 104000  7.9  893.7 167.0  7.9 8.1 8.1  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  20.34 -84.85  EYE     20 IR  79.9   11.87 -129.49  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.1 
2021APR17 111000  7.9  893.7 167.0  7.9 8.0 8.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  18.33 -84.50  EYE     20 IR  79.9   11.94 -129.38  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.2 
2021APR17 114000  7.9  893.7 167.0  7.9 7.9 7.9  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF   8.16 -84.74  EYE     19 IR  79.9   12.03 -129.26  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.4 
2021APR17 121000  7.9  893.7 167.0  7.9 8.0 8.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  16.59 -84.31  EYE     19 IR  79.9   12.05 -129.10  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.5 
2021APR17 124000  8.0  890.3 170.0  8.0 8.1 8.1  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  20.18 -84.63  EYE     20 IR  79.9   12.04 -129.06  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.5 
2021APR17 131000  8.0  890.3 170.0  8.0 8.0 8.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  15.77 -84.25  EYE     18 IR  79.9   12.06 -129.05  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.6 
2021APR17 134000  8.0  890.3 170.0  8.0 8.0 8.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  16.61 -84.06  EYE     18 IR  79.9   12.13 -128.98  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.7 
2021APR17 141000  8.0  890.3 170.0  8.0 8.0 8.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  19.79 -84.06  EYE     18 IR  79.9   12.16 -128.91  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.8 
2021APR17 143000  8.0  890.3 170.0  8.0 8.0 8.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  20.34 -83.52  EYE     18 IR  79.9   12.20 -128.87  ARCHER   HIM-8 19.8 

 

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JTWC estimated its minimum central pressure at 888mb. JMA at 895mb.

This shatters the record for the most intense cyclone prior to May 1st and is in the elite top 20 highest wind speeds at any time of year.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-04-16-typhoon-surigae-philippines-forecast

BTW...this was a well forecasted cyclone. Both the GFS and ECMWF had been consistently showing a low 900's intensity at least 5 days out.

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13 hours ago, bdgwx said:

JTWC estimated its minimum central pressure at 888mb. JMA at 895mb.

This shatters the record for the most intense cyclone prior to May 1st and is in the elite top 20 highest wind speeds at any time of year.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-04-16-typhoon-surigae-philippines-forecast

BTW...this was a well forecasted cyclone. Both the GFS and ECMWF had been consistently showing a low 900's intensity at least 5 days out.

The timing is incredible and concerning.

Without recon we will never know for sure what these WPAC beasts are really obtaining. Once you start maxing out T it’s hard to differentiate between 175kts and 200 and 900 and 870.

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Test on whether the Euro will continue the trend of doing a terrible job at cyclogenesis: The GFS has been on this system for a while, shows a 939 mb storm south of Okinawa 240 hours out while Euro has squat. Who will win?

Screenshot_20210527-185555_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20210527-185637_Chrome.jpg

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On 5/27/2021 at 7:00 PM, cptcatz said:

Test on whether the Euro will continue the trend of doing a terrible job at cyclogenesis: The GFS has been on this system for a while, shows a 939 mb storm south of Okinawa 240 hours out while Euro has squat. Who will win?

Screenshot_20210527-185555_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20210527-185637_Chrome.jpg

Well?

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3 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Well?

GFS dropped it. Looks like King Euro reigns supreme. 

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