WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[Intensewind002]

If they actually had recon in the WPAC i could see this storm having something like an 875-885 mb pressure at its peak intensity, and probably something close to Patricia in terms of windspeed

[ncforecaster89]

22 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said:

Almost did with Dorian and with AGW it’s way more likely.

We did actually have such an intense monster hit the Florida Keys in 1935.  Just didn’t have the technology then to accurately measure its intensity.   Way before AGW became all the rage and will happen again, regardless; just simply a matter of time.  

[Bhs1975]

If they actually had recon in the WPAC i could see this storm having something like an 875-885 mb pressure at its peak intensity, and probably something close to Patricia in terms of windspeed

I think this one was stronger than Typhoon Tip.

[ncforecaster89]

6 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said:

I think this one was stronger than Typhoon Tip.

As many others have alluded to...I wish the U.S. could make a financial arrangement whereby Recon would fly into the strongest Typhoons that are genuinely threatening land like Haiyan, Meranti, and Goni.   

[ncforecaster89]

24 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

If they actually had recon in the WPAC i could see this storm having something like an 875-885 mb pressure at its peak intensity, and probably something close to Patricia in terms of windspeed

What really stands out about this system is that it literally made landfall at its peak extreme intensity.  Truly remarkable system, and I fear for those unfortunate souls who are having to  endure its wrath!

[StormChaser4Life]

That island definitely impacted Goni. Eye has shrink considerably after passage over it. Hopefully this can bring the intensity down some but regardless this will still be a catastrophic cat 4-5 across the Philippines 

[Windspeed]

Landfall microwave courtesy of Bachmeier @ CIMSS.

[StormChaser4Life]

Goni has definitely degraded quite a bit on satellite in its inner core. Curious what the intensity is now

[vortex95]

Goni as strong as Haiyan?  Going strictly by satellite here.

I did a comparison of EIR and BD geostationary imagery (4 km resolution)

at Goni's and Haiyan's peak intensity of 170 kt.

 

Goni EIR 10/31/20 18z  170 kt
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmirimg/2020wp22_4kmirimg_202010311800.gif

Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1830z  170 kt
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmirimg/2013wp31_4kmirimg_201311071830.gif

Goni BD 10/31/20 18z  170 kt
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmsrbdc/2020wp22_4kmsrbdc_202010311800.jpg

 

Haiyan BD 11/7/13 1830z  170 kt
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmsrbdc/2013wp31_4kmsrbdc_201311071830.jpg

 

Haiyan looks more symmetrical with a thicker/colder CDO ring and warmer/clearer eye.

 

-----

 

Comparison of Polar EIR imagery (1 km resolution)

 

Goni EIR 10/31/20 1225z
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmirimg/2020wp22_1kmirimg_202010311225.gif

Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1640z  
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/1kmirimg/2013wp31_1kmirimg_201311071640.gif

 

Polar imagery is not at the same time but still Haiyan looks so much more

impressive overall for its cold COD ring and a warmer/clearer eye overall. 

Geostationary imagery for Goni at 18z does not suggest its satellite

presentation improved to this level from 1225z.

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Haiyan was on its own level.  I sure wish they could have gotten a recon plane in there.

[TexMexWx]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WXappraiser/status/1323217109111894017

Destroyed radar dome and obliterated trees in Catanduanes.

[Morris]

Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. 

 

LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. 

According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h. https://t.co/IqtOEWXsSS

[Windspeed]

Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. 
 
LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. 
According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h. https://t.co/IqtOEWXsSS

It's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure.

[Calderon]

I've been tracking that from over here because I'm responsible for that region & JTWC dropped the ball big time. 2 days ago there were 2 well-defined clusters with evident surface circulation, and in the span of 2 hours last night, one group of storms exploded & closed off the eye. It was bombs away very fast then. Already forecasting flooding in Djibouti, because well, it happens in a scenario like this with ease over there. 

[CheeselandSkies]

It would seem insane RI close to land is not just an Atlantic/GoM phenomenon this year.