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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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This one escalated quickly. Just upped the winds to 135kts and has landfall sooner. Not sure of the population where its headed but it could be really bad.

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1 hour ago, shaggy said:
This one escalated quickly. Just upped the winds to 135kts and has landfall sooner. Not sure of the population where its headed but it could be really bad.

Most of the communities along the track have densely populated townships even if they are small in size, such as Puri, India, which has around 200k residents in its last census. Puri may also find itself in the right-front quadrant of the eyewall. Trying to estimate track, Chatrapur, a smaller township of about 20k may get the direct hit. Regardless, as the cyclone moves inland, there are even higher population densities across the state of Odisha, and of course, per usual, the greatest threat is still going to be flash flooding of low lying communities.ba71783e1863037378214309e21dd54e.gifc4b2b6018936bbe53c53d41df077346c.jpg

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Most of the communities along the track have densely populated townships even if they are small in size, such as Puri, India, which has around 200k residents in its last census. Puri may also find itself in the right-front quadrant of the eyewall. Trying to estimate track, Chatrapur, a smaller township of about 20k may get the direct hit. Regardless, as the cyclone moves inland, there are even higher population densities across the state of Odisha, and of course, per usual, the greatest threat is still going to be flash flooding of low lying communities.ba71783e1863037378214309e21dd54e.gifc4b2b6018936bbe53c53d41df077346c.jpg

Luckily it looks as if cloud tops are warming as it begins to interact with land on the NW side of the core. Still gonna be a big hit for them.

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5 hours ago, shaggy said:

Luckily it looks as if cloud tops are warming as it begins to interact with land on the NW side of the core. Still gonna be a big hit for them.

Not a great track for a high end landfall. Trajectory has too much land interaction before landfall. Good for what I assume are poor people living in substandard housing. All of the money in India is in the major city’s with the rest of the country still relatively poor. 

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TC Vayu in the NW Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea is forecast to become a Category 2 cyclone in the coming days and make landfall over the NW Indian and Pakistani coastline / borderlands. HWRF is most agressive in intensification making Vayu a Category 4 cyclone. The late track may be quite problematic for significant flash flooding as the cyclone will slow down and drift somewhere between Sindhu (Indus) of Pakistan and Mahi River Valleys.978aacd6a92450c71523ac28774308a5.gife871bbdb1840eb236b36f4a8a6843d87.jpg

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Vanu began a westward drift and should avoid landfall as a strong cyclone. Globals show a westward motion for a few days before eventually getting sheared off. A weaker system may still get pulled via the low level flow into Pakistan/NW India so flooding rainfall may still be a concern in the coming week.fcf804eaaa4913158365f6e308ed3148.gif

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The investing the wpac is modeled to be a strong cane with landfall over Japan. Gfs is stronger and more west with a pressure in the 930 range while euro is into Japan with 970ish.

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GFS has two storms in the next few days in the Pacific. Typhoon Lekima, farther west, is expected to be 130 kt (Category 4) near Ishigakijima, Japan and also at 80 kt near the Chinese landfall point (JTWC)

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Lekima is approaching 130 kts or upper Cat 4 per ADT#s the past few hours. This cyclone may even become a Cat 5 on Saffir Simpson scale. Of course a reminder that the agency responsible for that region measures in 10-minute sustained averages, but nonetheless the TC is a beast tha lt may be a Super Typhoon near initial brush / land interaction with Ryukyu Islands, Japan, near to Ishagaki.c92ec4479015e82fcaa24155cf188a36.gif

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I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.

 

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1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

How about that for a trochoidal wobble.

 

Man if those 2 little islandsare inhabited that was a tough break as that kept them in the eyewall.

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1 hour ago, shaggy said:

Man if those 2 little islandsare inhabited that was a tough break as that kept them in the eyewall.

I'm not so sure about that. The radar suggests they only clipped the outer part of the eye wall. I'm sure it was still a rough ride but not as hellacious as that inner eye wall. 

cE2uvO1.gif

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2 hours ago, KoalaBeer said:

I'm not so sure about that. The radar suggests they only clipped the outer part of the eye wall. I'm sure it was still a rough ride but not as hellacious as that inner eye wall. 

cE2uvO1.gif

Any observation from those islands.

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Typhoon Faxai looks like it could be the rare typhoon to make landfall on Honshu as a fully tropical (not transitioning) system in the next 24 hours. Worse, it could hit the Tokyo Bay/Kanto Plain area head on.

 

 

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The topography of the Shizuoka prefecture already doing a number on Faxai's northern circulation. There is plenty of topography there besides just the majestic Mt. Fuji. The eye has become cloudfilled though radar still shows a robust northern eyewall. This will be the strongest typhoon in recent memory for the port of Yokohama and the harbour there based on current intensity, but hopefully the surge won't be too severe in Sagami Bay and Tokyo Bay due to Faxai's small core.

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Weird track for current blowup of storms SE of Taiwan. The disturbance came in from the NE, seemingly replacing a cloud cluster in this same area. This isn't yet on the list of warned systems. Could have been a Fujiwara effect betwen the two disturbances.

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Typhoon Hagibis approaching the Marianas. Easily one of the most impressive displays of rapid intensification I’ve personally seen. Up there with Wilma?

366F9ADA-6EB3-432C-BC6C-F636103C647E.gif

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Well-formed small vortex in the right place at the right time. Nearly all requirements for RI and MPI met at once. Strong banding around such a small vortex will eventually halt this round but there will likely be reintensification after ERC with a larger eye. Having said that, based on sat estimates, peak intensity has been achieved.

 

At this time there isn't much off structurally in comparison to Patricia or Wilma. The eye is doing a trochoidal wobble that may slingshot it right over the island -- a possible sub 900 hPa hit of you've ever seen one.240a40e3e316f7c67acbf2ace071ad4f.gif&key=5608ebdb86503ec9578f0265674f5dcfb4e3df5379eace4d1b8261682bc15816

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34 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Well-formed small vortex in the right place at the right time. Nearly all requirements for RI and MPI met at once. Strong banding around such a small vortex will eventually halt this round but there will likely be reintensification after ERC with a larger eye. Having said that, based on sat estimates, peak intensity has been achieved.

 

At this time there isn't much off structurally in comparison to Patricia or Wilma. The eye is doing a trochoidal wobble that may slingshot it right over the island -- a possible sub 900 hPa hit of you've ever seen one.240a40e3e316f7c67acbf2ace071ad4f.gif&key=5608ebdb86503ec9578f0265674f5dcfb4e3df5379eace4d1b8261682bc15816

Fortunately the island is uninhabited. 

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Fortunately the island is uninhabited. 

Yes, it was inhabited prior to volcanic unrest. The caldera has been active in recent times with a VEI-4 eruption in 2003. Anatahan is a desolate place that nobody has returned to.

 

I should also say that based on angle of satellite and parallax, it may look like a landfall, but we'll need to confirm it with the radar beam out of the N. Marianas. The base of the tiny 3nm wide vortex may actually be missing south of Anatahan though it looks like a direct hit on the island.

 

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Edit: Sorry for edits, Tapatalk is being annoying and lagging posts atm.

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