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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Cyclone Idai, moving across the Mozambique Channel has completed an ERC and slightly reintensified to Cat 3. The internal structure of the cyclone has taken on annular characteristics. It is forecast to make landfall near the city of Beira in Mozambique. Despite Idai's intensity, flash flooding will be the greatest threat to the city and surrounding region. Certainly storm surge up the Pungwe River also poses a dangerous threat to life and property.cbcbcf34e90c34d9e415a82526c91493.jpg

Saw that this morning. Beautiful structure. I don’t really follow tropical outside of the Atlantic basin but this ERC got my attention momentarily.

 

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ADT for Idai rebounded somewhat prior to landfall. JTWC dropped to 95 kts on the last advisory. However, the core may have regained some of that intensity as cloudtops cooled and the eye appeared less ragged. Though 95 or 105 kts isn't a huge difference, increasing convection in the eyewall versus eroding convection may have helped transport destructive gusts to surface.1436db2a83be34a884aa28c4d0ae5684.jpg

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The INGC, Mozambique's governmental natural hazards and disaster mitigation agency is on the ground evaluating damage. There has been very little word out of there.

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Idai's remnant low continues to sit and spin over Mozambique and Zimbabwe, pulling a strong moisture feed off the Mozambique Channel and Indian Ocean; daytime heating adding to atmospheric instabilty supporting intense convective plumes over the same locations, essentially firehose band precipation moving over the interior. Not to sound dreary, but I would be surprised if conditions in both countries do not escalate into an humanitarian crisis at this point. A trailing surface trough and unstable boundary appears to hold between the highlands and coastal region through Wednesday until Idai's remnant low completely dissipates/precipitates out.

On top of what has already fallen, here is the modeled ECMWF totals, the bulk which falls over the next 72 hours:05d667830260e5c33a65e72280d01a21.jpg

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Looking at the structural failures in that imagery above, I can only say I hope the residents there evacuated. That looks pretty grim.

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You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"?

Their comms infrastructure isn't like that found in the US. And there have been limited resources on the ground relaying out the imagery we are just now seeing above. It was a major hit on a populated area with extreme rainfall totals still accumulating. What's not to be dramatic about? There is very real possibility of significant loss of life and a humanitarian crisis unfolding in the coming weeks/months.

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It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr? 

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5 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:
It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr? 

This may be a nonstory to you, but the situation is still unfolding. No, it's not like they're just sitting in their homes waiting to drown. But people may be displaced and surged/flooded urban areas, much more rural, are difficult to reach with roads and bridges impassable. The Yatumbe River is currently expanding out across its flood plain with heavy rains continuing to fall over its interior tributaries. What is modeled, an additional 500mm/20 inches on top of what has already fallen, possible through Wednesday.

News doesn't exactly flow out to Western media from this part of the world at a rapid pace like it does elsewhere. It's going to take days to weeks for resources to get out all that is happening there to verify what has occurred from a meteorological perspective; and again, a large fraction of those 500k people are currently displaced within ongoing inclement weather, which isn't exactly helping the spread of personal testimony and experiences without anyone able to reach them on the ground and report it.

I'm not going to stop posting or apologize for posting about this event regardless if it seems like I am being too dramatic.
 

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Pretty unanimous global modeling on a sub 930 mb tropical cyclone traversing the Gulf of Carpentaria late week. Looks like double landfalls for Cyclone Trevor in Australia. The initial being eastern Cape York Peninsula coast late on Tuesday. Then reintensification transitioning into rapid intensification as the severe cyclone turns poleward in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

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Situation seems similar to that after the 2004 earthquake, first reports are of only a few casualties, because the worst hit sites have lost communications entirely.

Looks to be very ugly.

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Australia now has two intensifying cyclones. Positioned off the NW coast is Veronica, which is quickly consolidating a core and looks to become an intense cyclone in the near term. Likewise, Trevor, which is emerging over the Gulf of Carpentaria is quickly reorganizing after crossing the Cape York Peninsula. Both cyclones are unanimously modeled to become severe cyclones and there is even the possibility of an extremely rare occurrence of two Category 5s raging simultaneously near to the Australian coastline at once.2bc4b80367ab9164822a302e97402e2b.gif1e6538875460b5d104ba3f7f0a6a51d1.gif

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Australia now has two intensifying cyclones. Positioned off the NW coast is Veronica, which is quickly consolidating a core and looks to become an intense cyclone in the near term. Likewise, Trevor, which is emerging over the Gulf of Carpentaria is quickly reorganizing after crossing the Cape York Peninsula. Both cyclones are unanimously modeled to become severe cyclones and there is even the possibility of an extremely rare occurrence of two Category 5s raging simultaneously near to the Australian coastline at once.2bc4b80367ab9164822a302e97402e2b.gif1e6538875460b5d104ba3f7f0a6a51d1.gif

Veronica is looking nasty and it's amazing how well trevor held together. He should reorganize quickly once he is away from land.

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Per ADT, Veronica is the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane now. JTWC forecast 140 kts. Aus Met is also forecasting a 5 on their scale. Should make landfall on late Saturday or Sunday.324fe9df346e499670d0453611bb3d50.gif65e21c32b2cad9688182f86bce121733.gif2736784543ef6438b4d735531433f388.jpg

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Severe cyclone Veronica looks to have completed an ERC and is beginning to clear out the cloud canopy over its eye. A run at Cat 5, if it's going to happen, should be commencing in short order. Atmospheric conditions including strong divergence aloft and 30°C SSTs are supportive for such run before increasing shear becomes an issue near landfall. Hopefully that shear will weaken Veronica prior to landfall, though we're more hopeful it will come ashore away from any populated communities.a8c27a8f5e5e8548d735fb88f32516cb.gif

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Despite low shear, Veronica can't seem to intensify. JTWC actually downgraded. Unsure of dry air intrusion or core alignment. Microwave shows multiple concentric bands. Probably all downhill from here as far as intensity. Likewise, Trevor seems to be struggling with 700-600mb southwesterly shear, tilting the MLC northeast of the LLC. Despite -85°C intense convective cloudstops, it's running out of time. Doesn't look like either cyclone will come anywhere close to the 920s millibars in pressure despite days of unanimous modeling support to the contrary. Looks like JTWC's earlier intensity forecasts are also going to bust hard on both systems. But again, Cat 5s are extremely difficult to forecast even with days of good modeling consensus.

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Trevor's landfall is imminent. JTWC has the intensity around 105 kts. ADT still supports that. Looks like a solid Cat 3 landfall.d29a06c69af75b8323dba2d821aac609.gif

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Veronica's core is slowing down and will eventually begin a SW to WSW motion in close proximity to the Australian coast before or just after landfall. Though cloudtops have cooled and ADT increased to 115 kts over night, the eye has become rather ragged in the last several hours. With a slow motion and bend in track in close proximity to coast, should a landfall occur, it may take a while.

This region of Australian coast is sparsely populated. Roebourne is the only major township beyond several coastal getaways and they're roughly a few thousand people combined. This area no stranger to cyclones however. They should be prepared.a2a94edfe498f671cedb3a2d9ea3f470.gif

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Comoros island is seeing gusts to 75mph as a 100kt cyclone misses them just north. Gonna make a second landfall around 115kts tomorrow.

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As it turns out cyclone Kenneth went through a period of RI and made landfall as 140mph storm. Strongest in Mozambique history.

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TC Fani is looking to threaten India as a strong hurricane in a few days. Projected landfall of 110kts as of the latest advisory.

 

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Fani is putting on a hell of a show right before landfall

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 935.7mb/115.0kt
Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
  6.0     6.2     7.2

 

tq1nxUt.png

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Fani's Adj T numbers had already hit 140 kts. The earlier pinhole eye had also cleared and warmed. Though unofficial, Fani could very well have already attained Cat 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I don't know if the cyclone will maintain upper Cat 4 to Cat 5 intensity all the way through landfall however, as Fani's forecast track moves its core slightly adjacent and in close proximity to the shape of the Indian coastline for a while prior to actual landfall. Disruption of the core and eyewall interaction with land should weaken it before official landfall occurs. Regardless, this is a very powerful tropical cyclone, and with intense winds impacting a lot of shoreline, this cyclone has the potental to be a devestating event to multiple communities with a high population density.

Edit: Fani, not "Lani".

598cda44bf43d286640767fd3e47d04a.gif

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