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Rjay

Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread Part 2

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. 

Those 80s must have been putrid. 

They were.

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NYC averaged around 42" of precipitation up to 1970...after 1970 the average is near 50"...big snow storm frequency is the reason for higher snow totals...

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4 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Glenn schwartz Winter outlook.   Going warm an little snow. No big storms at all

 

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-21st-Annual-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Warmer-Air-Less-Snow-456201723.html

 

This is understandable. If we get a typical Central Based/-QBO/-PDO. Then this forecast can verify quite easily.

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JB continues to stress his belief the CFS is dead wrong on heat in the East.  Next 6 weeks plus will be wicked, he says.  Ski to your heart's delight in northeast too.

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I would never want any of these 'experts' to be a witness for me-----but I would love to have the pleasure of cross examining them.

I will just stick to the CFS, bad as it is, which keeps telling the story of a late winter that lasts beyond the meteorological winter by two months.   It practically banishes the red hues by Jan.---from the whole continent.

To show the futility here, the JMA has generally BN for the next 3-4 weeks, and CFS is AN.  

These 'critters' would have trouble beating a stopped clock.

Now if I only could find my Tarot Cards, the ones with the NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, EL NINO, LA NINA, LA NADA, MODOKI, QBO, SSW etc. ------ I would make my own predictions.

Oh here is a good substitute.   My collection of used Chinese ChopSticks.   Why, I'll just tossed them into air and read their entrails---and the answer is..........................

TBC.

 

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

I would never want any of these 'experts' to be a witness for me-----but I would love to have the pleasure of cross examining them.

I will just stick to the CFS, bad as it is, which keeps telling the story of a late winter that lasts beyond the meteorological winter by two months.   It practically banishes the red hues by Jan.---from the whole continent.

To show the futility here, the JMA has generally BN for the next 3-4 weeks, and CFS is AN.  

These 'critters' would have trouble beating a stopped clock.

Now if I only could find my Tarot Cards, the ones with the NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, EL NINO, LA NINA, LA NADA, MODOKI, QBO, SSW etc. ------ I would make my own predictions.

Oh here is a good substitute.   My collection of used Chinese ChopSticks.   Why, I'll just tossed them into air and read their entrails---and the answer is..........................

TBC.

 

A friend of mine said, after I was trying to explain what I obviously didn't understand, " cut the crap and use this" he handed me a weather rock. Told me to put it in a clear open area and if it's wet it's raining, white it's snowing, if dry, I can figure out for myself. He did have a point, at least, where I'm concerned.

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In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter he does acknowledge the models showing a colder pattern beginning the 2nd week of December but does have concerns that the warm shelf and gulf stream waters could limit wintry weather chances along the eastern seaboard with precipitation being more wet then white. He also has some concerns that the last 2 weeks of December could slide back to a semi zonal flow as well. He is more or less still on the train that the mid west and great lakes will be the big winners this winter which would continue to support his winter outlook agenda. Have to see how things continue to evolve as we head into December but I am liking how things are evolving so far especially from week 2 of December forward.

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On 11/26/2017 at 2:56 AM, Rtd208 said:

In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter he does acknowledge the models showing a colder pattern beginning the 2nd week of December but does have concerns that the warm shelf and gulf stream waters could limit wintry weather chances along the eastern seaboard with precipitation being more wet then white. He also has some concerns that the last 2 weeks of December could slide back to a semi zonal flow as well. He is more or less still on the train that the mid west and great lakes will be the big winners this winter which would continue to support his winter outlook agenda. Have to see how things continue to evolve as we head into December but I am liking how things are evolving so far especially from week 2 of December forward.

That's a legit concern given the well above normal waters off the coast.   Later this winter that will work in our favor.

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..with a big grain of salt i decided to look @ accuweathers long range forecasts..they don't

see any colder temps at all.. all daytime highs in the 40's..right thru christmas..what does this mean??

absolutely nothing!!..

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On 11/8/2017 at 8:04 AM, uncle W said:

NYC averaged around 42" of precipitation up to 1970...after 1970 the average is near 50"...big snow storm frequency is the reason for higher snow totals...

Indeed.  We either get 1-3 inches of snow or 10+ it seems.  Moderate snowstorms have become extremely rare.

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6 hours ago, Paragon said:

Indeed.  We either get 1-3 inches of snow or 10+ it seems.  Moderate snowstorms have become extremely rare.

I wouldn’t say that, we had a bunch of moderate events in 13/14 and 15/16. But yes the big events have Devine much more frequent 

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I kind of find it funny how the Mid-Atlantic folks on this forum seem to like the upcoming cold pattern way more than the NYC forum.

It feels almost as if they expect another 2009-2010 snow apocalypse for them this month.

For December, just give me two 4-8" snowstorms that occurs with temps in the teens/lower 20s along with great snow pack retention (-5 or lower monthly temp departure) and I'm happy.

Hopefully, any relaxation in the pattern happens after the 25th.

The 12"+ storm can happen in January.

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On 11/28/2017 at 3:59 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t say that, we had a bunch of moderate events in 13/14 and 15/16. But yes the big events have Devine much more frequent 

You get that a lot in winters where we have a lot of mixed events (like 93-94 and 13-14).  15-16 though we had 70% of our snow in one storm (30 inches in Jan 2016 storm.)

I think 14-15 New England got the jackpot every time (except eastern LI shared in the jackpot in the Jan 2015 storm.)  Another winter like that was 2004-05, except we did a bit better with the Jan 2005 storm than we did with the Jan 2015 storm (except for eastern LI)

2003-04 was another example, cold almost like 1993-94 but more snow than ice (but snowfall total was less than 1993-94 because the events were less frequent.)

 

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5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

A potential winter storm is brewing for next weekend with heavy snow a threat for Saturday into Sunday morning. 

Details on the way!

Wouldn' that mean this weekend

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On 11/6/2017 at 5:46 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. 

Those 80s must have been putrid. 

So were the 70s.

The only great winter in the 70s was 1978, outside of that it was either cold and dry or mild and dry or mild and wet lol.

Outside of 1977 even the summers in the 70s were boring.

 

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