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July pattern discussion


Typhoon Tip

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6 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Actually, just south of CEF, BDL is sitting at 98° and HFD is at 97° and I think that would qualify as big heat in these parts.  Interesting difference between the stations as BAF just NW of BDL is also 93°.  I'm not sure why BAF and CEF are 5° "cooler" than BDL.

 

good questions, ..yeah.  but Bri' and Will were pointing out earlier that the EDD data might be between toilet paper and official so perhaps take those numbers.... wait, where are you see your numbers?

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

good questions, ..yeah.  but Bri' and Will were pointing out earlier that the EDD data might be between toilet paper and official so perhaps take those numbers.... wait, where are you see your numbers?

I was looking at a roundup and then a mesomap:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=8&scroll_zoom=true&center=42.08599350447723,-72.08129882812499&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false,false&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,wind,gust&obs_popup=false&obs_density=1

I see now that BAF is reporting 97°.  CEF is still 93.

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

ha!  maybe someone oughta go out to the tarmac and give the housing a whack ... :) 

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

i like your style .. muah hahahaha.   

 

man, can you imagine 1938 happening now, with the infrastructure and civility of LI ?   ...even if Bob didn't hook NE and clip the Cape like that, he was CAT 3 I think at land fall; chk that but did read it unofficially before. 

I'd take the PRE+TC.  Greatest 24-hr precip of my experience came via that combo in late August, 1971.  Had 3.8" from 7A to 4P, then high-end TC "Doria" roared thru overnight, dumping another 5.1" by 4A.  Fortunately for low-lying areas, NNJ had been pretty dry that summer, so flooding was relatively minor.

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This is turning into the hot, humid month a few of us discussed and mentioned

 

 
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Excessive heat at times through mid week at least away from the
  immediate coast and especially Monday

* Mon/Mon night is the highest risk for scattered showers/t-storms
  with the threat for some severe weather and even very localized
  urban type flooding

* Cold front may bring another risk for scattered
  showers/thunderstorms sometime late next week but timing uncertain

Details...

Upper level ridge over the southern half of the country will
generate a westerly flow of air aloft and anomalously hot
temperatures, especially for the first half of the week.  GFS
Ensembles indicate 925T between 1 and 2 standard deviations above
normal for most of next week.  So confidence is fairly high in above
to at times much above normal temperatures.  ECMWF ensembles are
pretty much in agreement as well.

Monday...

Currently, Monday looks like it may be the worst in terms of heat
and humidity.  850T near +20C should allow high temps to rise into
the mid to upper 90s away from any coastal sea breezes.
Surface temps may even reach 100 in a few locales if clouds do not
get in the way. In addition, low level moisture may pool ahead of a
pre frontal trough/cold.  This may push heat index value to 100+ and
decent shot will need heat advisories for portions of the region.
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is turning into the hot, humid latter half of the month most of us discussed and mentioned



 

Month?  Are you forgetting the first half of the month?  I wouldn't describe the first half of the month as "hot & humid". 

I fixed your post as I think that's what you meant.

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Last week and this week may very well be the apex two weeks of the summer. Although the GFS ensembles into another possible heat invasion maybe in another 10 days. We'll see. 

I wonder where the heat advisories were yesterday - was another day last week and now they start talking about that? Interesting

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