July pattern discussion

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Months and months of above average rainfall. One coastal does nothing except ease short term problems. When you are -15"-20" in the hole..it takes a long long time to dig out.Unless the coastal was a slow moving TS that dropped 10+

What are the long term problems you need to alleviate?  Short term a good coastal would put water back in wells, water the vegetation, etc.

What long term issues are you dealing with aside from mentally feeling screwed out of rain you are owed?  Being 20" in the hole here is different than in California in terms of effects.

You know there'd be massive flooding if 10" of rain fell...it's not like we need 10-20" if that's what the deficit is.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'm not sure if you are doing this simply to be argumentative or maybe just unaware how much of the region is in the midst of a dire moderate to severe drought including YBY..I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you've just been really busy with work

Yep, soil moisture is well below normal, hence the need for 6-9" of rain to bring it back to normal. So yes, we have some agriculture that is struggling. But it's not like we'd need years to make up for this. 

I already explained to you, this is not as dire as situations out west. They only receive around 10" of rain in an entire year. That's a below normal 3 months for some of our area. Severe drought is a very relative term.

[dendrite]

lol

We're coming off of practically the wettest 10 year stretch ever...I'm not too worried about long term drought. I'm sorry for those with browning grass at the climo peak of summer.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Yep, soil moisture is well below normal, hence the need for 6-9" of rain to bring it back to normal. So yes, we have some agriculture that is struggling. But it's not like we'd need years to make up for this. 

I already explained to you, this is not as dire as situations out west. They only receive around 10" of rain in an entire year. That's a below normal 3 months for some of our area. Severe drought is a very relative term.

But it's a dire situation.  Don't take that from him lol.  He needs those words to get his point across.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol

We're coming off of practically the wettest 10 year stretch ever...I'm not too worried about long term drought. I'm sorry for those with browning grass at the climo peak of summer.

The funny thing with the recent downpours the lawn is primarily green..though no rain the last 8 days has started to burn it again

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

But it's a dire situation.  Don't take that from him lol.  He needs those words to get his point across.

[Trump]We have to wipe out this drought. And fast. Believe me.[/Trump]

[ORH_wxman]

I'm wondering if we'll make it to the end of summer with drinking water.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

it's down right hysterical how no one is successfully 'sensatianated' by kevin's unrelenting attempts to sensationalize ...  oh, hours of laughter.  

yet, he keeps trying?

i thought the definition of insanity was universally accepted as, 'doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result and voting for trump'

... heh, guess so then -

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ORH is 85 at noon - not bad. 

850's would support 90 F at a 1,000' IF IF IF...we can keep the wind west there.  it's trying to veer some...  Figure if it dips below 240 they'll start getting the LI taint and/upslope tendency out of eastern CT and'll cap 'em ...89er

 

 

88 at 1pm is decent. But yeah, wind is not optimal, however, we are trying to tickle 20C at H85 which may just be enough to squeak out a 90-91.

 

Monday has a shot too as H85 temps try and go +19 to +20. It'll be close. No shot tomorrow or Sunday though.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

88 at 1pm is decent. But yeah, wind is not optimal, however, we are trying to tickle 20C at H85 which may just be enough to squeak out a 90-91.

 

Monday has a shot too as H85 temps try and go +19 to +20. No shot tomorrow or Sunday though.

that's exactly what i had in mind... 91 today and 90 on Monday...   Monday being hotter but falling less fits with the summer - christ

[tamarack]

21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yep, soil moisture is well below normal, hence the need for 6-9" of rain to bring it back to normal. So yes, we have some agriculture that is struggling. But it's not like we'd need years to make up for this. 

Good example is the far, far more serious (for the East) situation in 1962-66.  For the 30 months March 1964-August 1966, NYC was 36" BN for rainfall.  Looking at the six warmest months (May-Oct), most important for agriculture, during the above period they were 31.85" BN, getting but 52% of normal (1931-60 numbers.)  And yet the 4-6" rain of 9/21/1966, followed by most of the next year bringing 125% of normal rainfall put paid to the problem.  (And the rainstorm of late May 1968 brought some of the worst flooding in NNJ history.)

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Good example is the far, far more serious (for the East) situation in 1962-66.  For the 30 months March 1964-August 1966, NYC was 36" BN for rainfall.  Looking at the six warmest months (May-Oct), most important for agriculture, during the above period they were 31.85" BN, getting but 52% of normal (1931-60 numbers.)  And yet the 4-6" rain of 9/21/1966, followed by most of the next year bringing 125% of normal rainfall put paid to the problem.  (And the rainstorm of late May 1968 brought some of the worst flooding in NNJ history.)

 

If this drought is "dire", I wonder how any of the northeast population survived the mid 1960s drought. There must have been widespread death and famine.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's exactly what i had in mind... 91 today and 90 on Monday...   Monday being hotter but falling less fits with the summer - christ

 

Today's heat is definitely "deeper" than the stuff we've had before. The mid 90s right now on the CP/valley are not really a result of "cheap" downsloping as much. You can see how ORH is only like 5F cooler than BDL vs the 8F we saw at times in the past 7-10 days. So while we're still only getting fringed by this heat dome, we did get a slightly deeper piece of it than before.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Today's heat is definitely "deeper" than the stuff we've had before. The mid 90s right now on the CP/valley are not really a result of "cheap" downsloping as much. You can see how ORH is only like 5F cooler than BDL vs the 8F we saw at times in the past 7-10 days. So while we're still only getting fringed by this heat dome, we did get a slightly deeper piece of it than before.

 

 

yup ... 89 at ORH and 93 at FIT and BOS may reflect that.   also, i have more wind this go, too so it's likely better mixed the help that potential along. 

uooop, check that - according to EDD ORH just hit 90

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup ... 89 at ORH and 93 at FIT and BOS may reflect that.   also, i have more wind this go, too so it's likely better mixed the help that potential along. 

uooop, check that - according to EDD ORH just hit 90

Maybe...probably 89F though since really the ob is 32C and they just barely hit it. A few reports of 32C and one of them is probably a 90F. We get the exact METAR in a few minutes anyways. 90F is pretty much inevitable with hitting 32C before 2pm.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The breeze is pretty strong today, too. That, coupled with the dryness tempers the heat a bit 

 

although i I just noticed the dew point is near 70 at a lot of spots.

89.1F here.   90 is coming

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe...probably 89F though since really the ob is 32C and they just barely hit it. A few reports of 32C and one of them is probably a 90F. We get the exact METAR in a few minutes anyways. 90F is pretty much inevitable with hitting 32C before 2pm.

32c = 89.6 and i'm pretty sure nws carries all decimals up anyway ... but i know what mean.  the point being there may be rounding issues between the two source - sure.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

32c = 89.6 and i'm pretty sure nws carries all decimals up anyway ... but i know what mean.  the point being there may be rounding issues between the two source - sure.  

 

They could be like 31.7C and it reports as 32C...so the 89.6 could really be 89.1 in that case...so that's where all the rounding uncertainty comes from.

[dendrite]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

32c = 89.6 and i'm pretty sure nws carries all decimals up anyway ... but i know what mean.  the point being there may be rounding issues between the two source - sure.  

 

Point is the obs get rounded in the body of the reports, but those aren't the official reading. 32C could mean 89F or 90F (31.7C or 32.2C).

Regardless, ORH has 90F as of 18Z.

[ORH_wxman]

That's the first summer month 90F reading at ORH since 2013. 2014 had none and last year had no 90F until a really anomalous one in September.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They could be like 31.7C and it reports as 32C...so the 89.6 could really be 89.1 in that case...so that's where all the rounding uncertainty comes from.

yeah, duh - that makes sense.  their instrumentation probably doesn't round things to the quantom point - hahaha.  

[TalcottWx]

So.. Weather has a weird way of making up for deficits. Maybe this drought will be busted by a TC via PRE or finally a landfalling cane? I only say finally because I read that we're statistically due for a more substantial storm. Might be a weenie comment, but weather seems to flip drastically in terms of temperature and precipitation in certain situations. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Point is the obs get rounded in the body of the reports, but those aren't the official reading. 32C could mean 89F or 90F (31.7C or 32.2C).

Regardless, ORH has 90F as of 18Z.

fair enough - i'm less privy to the tedium of their devices.  

i was careful to point out that it was the EDD page - so, folks can certainly consume that information accordingly

[Typhoon Tip]

 

not to be argumentative ...but, has NWS released any statement about that EDD ('NWS Enhanced Data Display') rounding mo per se ?   ..or is there a URL that defines that ? 

 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, duh - that makes sense.  their instrumentation probably doesn't round things to the quantom point - hahaha.  

It's just a coding issue. The hourly METARs report the temp in tenths of a degC, but the intermediate 5min obs only have the temp reported in the body of the ob in whole degC. Technically every 5min ob could be 32C (which websites convert to 89.6F which rounds to 90F), yet the actual was only 89F (31.7C). It would look something like this...

KORH 221755Z 24017G22KT 10SM FEW050 32/18 A2984
METAR KORH 221754Z 24015G20KT 10SM FEW050 32/18 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 24026/1713
                 SLP097 T03170178 10317 20222 58019

KORH 221750Z 24017KT 10SM FEW050 32/18 A2984

KORH 221745Z 23016KT 10SM CLR 32/18 A2984

 

[dendrite]

This is a better real example...

 

6hr high at LCI of 89F, but the 5min obs show 89.6F (really just a rounded 32C).

 

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KLCI&time=GMT

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's just a coding issue. The hourly METARs report the temp in tenths of a degC, but the intermediate 5min obs only have the temp reported in the body of the ob in whole degC. Technically every 5min ob could be 32C (which websites convert to 89.6F which rounds to 90F), yet the actual was only 89F (31.7C). It would look something like this...

KORH 221755Z 24017G22KT 10SM FEW050 32/18 A2984
METAR KORH 221754Z 24015G20KT 10SM FEW050 32/18 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 24026/1713
                 SLP097 T03170178 10317 20222 58019

KORH 221750Z 24017KT 10SM FEW050 32/18 A2984

KORH 221745Z 23016KT 10SM CLR 32/18 A2984

 

i get it! 

i'm not disagreeing with you all, i just want to see "... ut the intermediate 5min obs only have the temp reported in the body of the ob in whole degC. " actually stated/directly implicated in NWS defintions, and THEN ask why they do it that way.  

i give you guys the benny of doubt  

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

So.. Weather has a weird way of making up for deficits. Maybe this drought will be busted by a TC via PRE or finally a landfalling cane? I only say finally because I read that we're statistically due for a more substantial storm. Might be a weenie comment, but weather seems to flip drastically in terms of temperature and precipitation in certain situations. 

 

i like your style .. muah hahahaha.   

 

man, can you imagine 1938 happening now, with the infrastructure and civility of LI ?   ...even if Bob didn't hook NE and clip the Cape like that, he was CAT 3 I think at land fall; chk that but did read it unofficially before. 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

welp... no question about it.  today succeeds as a 'big heat' day.   

ORH likely to get a 92 or even 93 if things blip right, so it's thick and encompassing.  obviously, most people don't live at 1,000 ft anyway.  but i'm not finding a site that isn't influenced by ocean or altitude less than 95 and few of these may yet nick a-buck.  dps are over 60 well enough, too.  ooph. 

now... can we rockn' roll later.  nice p-wave cool down ??   

actually CEF and ORE are both hung at 93...  could be low end big h

[CapturedNature]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

welp... no question about it.  today succeeds as a 'big heat' day.   

ORH likely to get a 92 or even 93 if things blip right, so it's thick and encompassing.  obviously, most people don't live at 1,000 ft anyway.  but i'm not finding a site that isn't influenced by ocean or altitude less than 95 and few of these may yet nick a-buck.  dps are over 60 well enough, too.  ooph. 

now... can we rockn' roll later.  nice p-wave cool down ??   

actually CEF and ORE are both hung at 93...  could be low end big h

Actually, just south of CEF, BDL is sitting at 98° and HFD is at 97° and I think that would qualify as big heat in these parts.  Interesting difference between the stations as BAF just NW of BDL is also 93°.  I'm not sure why BAF and CEF are 5° "cooler" than BDL.