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July pattern discussion


Typhoon Tip

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14 hours ago, weathafella said:

Day 1 (today) at BOS verified at least 90.

Per BOX, today and Monday will be the days of high heat at the Pit with progged temps in the upper 80's on both those days.  Yesterday, we topped out at 81* and the call for the weekend here is low 80's.  Warm, but not bad for late July.

 

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a 3 year drought. This isn't just some dry summer. Look at Palmer index, soil moisture, deficits over last years. 15-20" deficits 

We were below normal up here by about 1-2" for 2015, but we're in the positive for the last 3.

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57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a 3 year drought. This isn't just some dry summer. Look at Palmer index, soil moisture, deficits over last years. 15-20" deficits 

It's only a one year for me...I had 49" of precip in 2014 which erased the couple of inch deficit I had in 2013.  Only last year was way below normal (by 10.02").

This summer is a lot drier than past summers.  There are overall contributors but this summer is drier.  Last year we had a wet June and decent July.  It got drier after that but field crops were mostly OK by then.  It's been a long time since field crops have looked the way they do at this stage in their growth.

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah you guys are ok. It's basically from the NH/Mass line south that's in really bad shape.

B7F14A3E-11A9-44CE-8C53-4853BF243BB1_zps

Like I said, most of that is from last year through this year.  Last year I was down about 10" and year to date I'm down 4.35".

The thing that graph does not mention is that it would not take 15" of rain to fully restore soil moisture and other things to normal.  It only shows the deficit from one moment in time to another.  If you run it for the past 10 years you'll see how above we are.  Even at 5 years we're ahead.

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Re the faux drought .. that's all it is.   by our climate standards ... we are (typical after a 'horror' dry summer) two coastals away from that being a slipping memory.  we've been over this and over this and over this, ...yet, the 'sensationalist posters' keep reverting back to this 'epicosity'.   we'll see..    hell, big MCS tonight?   ... dent. 

----

just saw the 00z Euro operational...  Fascinating.  pulls of near historic 850 mb temperatures (if not in scalar degree, possibly for duration...) next week with a flat 500 mb flow construct that even takes on troughing semblance.  

that's either going to turn out to be genius... or just f'up absurd and stupid.  not sure which. GFS obviously does what it's been doing all summer - and winning ;)  - by using butterflies over B.C. to tarnish/erode the ridge torridity from truly getting in here.   heh, prolly just another chapter in this summer's clever method for protecting the NE from the continental party.  we'll see which is closer.  prolly be in the middle so either's error is lost while targeting us for banality :axe:

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But in 3 years we are way below Regionwide

So even though 2014 was above normal, because the average of the last three years is below average it's a three year deficit?  I don't agree with that logic.  We are in what could be called year two but last year was year one.  I don't think you can count 2014 as year one because it had above normal precip region wide.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re the faux drought .. that's all it is.   by our climate standards ... we are (typical after a 'horror' dry summer) two coastals away from that being a slipping memory.  we've been over this and over this and over this, ...yet, the 'sensationalist posters' keep reverting back to this 'epicosity'.   we'll see..    hell, big MCS tonight?   ... dent.

I totally agree.  You can put up a map showing a precip deficit over some random time frame and come up with some alarming numbers but it doesn't take nearly that amount to replenish dry soils.

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ORH is 85 at noon - not bad. 

850's would support 90 F at a 1,000' IF IF IF...we can keep the wind west there.  it's trying to veer some...  Figure if it dips below 240 they'll start getting the LI taint and/upslope tendency out of eastern CT and'll cap 'em ...89er

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27 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

How do you define ending a drought?  Do you define it as erasing deficits over a random period of time or replenishing soil moisture levels and bringing rivers and streams back to normal levels?

Months and months of above average rainfall. One coastal does nothing except ease short term problems. When you are -15"-20" in the hole..it takes a long long time to dig out.Unless the coastal was a slow moving TS that dropped 10+

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12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

91F at KFIT at noon

86F IMBY.  90 is doable I think

if NWS' enhanced data display product has any merit ORH already popped an 88 this hour, prior to 1pm obs.  could be the day for typically elevation challenged -

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Months and months of above average rainfall. One coastal does nothing except ease short term problems. When you are -15"-20" in the hole..it takes a long long time to dig out.Unless the coastal was a slow moving TS that dropped 10+

first of all... this is entirely pseudo science ...

secondly, see what he's doing there?  he's establishing a pathway whereby he gets to post about droughts for 'months and months' , driving us all to annoyance, when there clearly either is none, or ..it is being realistically alleviated. 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Months and months of above average rainfall. One coastal does nothing except ease short term problems. When you are -15"-20" in the hole..it takes a long long time to dig out.Unless the coastal was a slow moving TS that dropped 10+

I'm confused. You were banging the Palmer a few days ago, now we need a full 20" to erase any drought? According to the Palmer Index, the worst off areas of the region only need 6-9" to be back to near normal soil moisture conditions. And really, what else is driving the impact around here besides soil moisture?

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'm confused. You were banging the Palmer a few days ago, now we need a full 20" to erase any drought? According to the Palmer Index, the worst off areas of the region only need 6-9" to be back to near normal soil moisture conditions. And really, what else is driving the impact around here besides soil moisture?

I'm not sure if you are doing this simply to be argumentative or maybe just unaware how much of the region is in the midst of a dire moderate to severe drought including YBY..I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you've just been really busy with work

 

U.S. Drought Monitor

Northeast

U.S. Drought Monitor forNortheast
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