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July pattern discussion

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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rimetree

rimetree

Posted
Posted

I'm just a hobbyist but it seems like those of us in central NE are getting the shaft when it comes to any kind of precip. Seems like it's been that way all summer, even going back to spring of 2015. I look at radar and see storms fire in SE MA or up in to the north. Invariably, we're splitting the uprights more often than not. Is there something new going on to maintain such persistent patterns? Is it just my perception and we'll eventually get into a stormy regime here while those in southern and northern NE get little to nothing? Just curious. Thanks.

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know you mean well and I'm not carping on it ...but, this was the first sentence I saw on this social media this morning, after having ingested the operational Euro, GGEM, and that "GONAPS" frankenstein models from the 00z cycle.   I was forced to grin.  

I haven't seen the GFS yet, but ... if the repeating theme of the summer is any indicator, NCEP's covert correction schemes to annoyingly cheese-grade the tops of ridges down would have to have had that less ... (sarcasm intended).  

Seriously, despite all Kevin vs the world consternation and wits to abase the other side .. THAT WAS A TRULY HOT RUN.  Historic in some cases, no doubt!  The Euro in particular (and this is not to convey certitude at all - just sayn') was like, 90, 94, 101, 102, 96, 94 for Days 5 thru 10 for Boston.  So this immediate Thursday through the weekend into early next week...woof.   Those estimated highs from the Euro were just using 850 mb temperatures and then skimming down a blank skew-T chart ...adding the perfunctory 2-3 C for the 2-meter logorithmic slope of course... 

That NOGAPs model brings 26 to 28 C at 850 mb from eastern IA through southern Lower Mi by D10, and the only thing stopping that from pouring into the rest of the OV/NE regions is that it uses the Perennial North American Pattern vestige (that all models do..) to shun - otherwise it's 18 to 24's occasionally through the same times. GGEM even overcame it's typical abusive masturbation of said Perennial NAP to bring 20+ for two days, too - a remarkable achievement for that Glenn Quagmirian model.  

I did sneak a peek at the GFS Ensemble mean numbers for KFIT just for morbid curiosity and it was a bit easier than the Euro, with 91, 98, 98, 93, 91 for those days. ...but that's 6-0 dozen between the two if one or the other's DPs are higher. 

Anyway, ...may very well be all for muse as the tenor of the summer really puts the onus on the models to hold onto one of these damn heat signals at < than 4 days. I've seen big heat (though admittedly ...not this extreme as last night's operational mean) on more than couple of occasions in this D5/6 thru 10 range.  Three cycles ago ... the run looked pretty torchy, too.  Then, the 12z yesterday nuanced the features to give the complexion 'not quite' the same impressionability.  The jaded user goes, 'up - here we go again ... idiosyncratic emergence of petty noise to erode...'   I will admit that it is interesting to see it come roaring back, that 'impressionability' - and then some! - as this last cycle at 00z.

We've been in an off-set climate mode that has spanned some 2 or even three years worth of months.  NASA keeps churning out numbers that prove that, relative to season, every month in that time span has been not only warmer than the previous (again, RELATIVE to season) but, the warmest in history - two very alarming facets for GW concerned, as well as mouth-pussing chagrin to the idiocrasy that either thinks it doesn't exist, or are unethically denying...  (eh hm).  Anyway, the 'off-set'?  We, here, over eastern Canada and down into the NE CONUS have shared responsibility for being one of the only cool (RELATIVE to all) regions during that longer duration.  It keeps happening... they put out graphical presentations and we get the neutral-blues.  

I dunno ... in the same time frame we'e witness killer heat afar in multiple regions of the globe.  France...India, Australia (I think..) other parts of Eurasia... I cannot help but wonder, if not anticipate if the base-line PNAP pattern finally can no longer protect us and people have NO idea how bad it can get ...eegh.   

 

 

9 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

No one has put forth a sensible solution to solve gw. so maybe we just have to adjust especially since India and China won't cooperate.

 

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

please - the "sensibility" has nothing to do with the solution.  Logically, there are technologies available that would curtail much of the detrimental affects of Human presence.  that's the sensible solution - the problem isn't "sensible" - it's motivation.     

 

5 hours ago, MetHerb said:

Talk about motivation, it's all political with both sides trying to gain something.  That's why nothing sensible will be done.

One thing we could do is to stop land reclamation.  If you add up all the land reclamation projects in the world it contributes to at least 6" of sea level rise if not more.  Shorelines used to be fluid and moved all the time but then we started putting up fixed barriers and even adding land mass.  As human development spread we've made more and more of the coastline fixed and added more land.

Then there's things like beach visitation which contributes to sand removal which starts the whole process over again.  Huge portions of our beaches are literally driven away by vistors every year.  We wind up spending billions replenishing beaches which contributes to the problem.  Everyone focuses on melting ice as the problem but ignores other contributors.

There's a whole host of contributors but we seem to only focus on certain ones and I don't think that's a motivational issue but a political one.  We shouldn't do something because someone gains from it but because it makes sense.

if only this website had a place dedicated to climate change discussion-oh wait, it does!

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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4 hours ago, rimetree said:

I'm just a hobbyist but it seems like those of us in central NE are getting the shaft when it comes to any kind of precip. Seems like it's been that way all summer, even going back to spring of 2015. I look at radar and see storms fire in SE MA or up in to the north. Invariably, we're splitting the uprights more often than not. Is there something new going on to maintain such persistent patterns? Is it just my perception and we'll eventually get into a stormy regime here while those in southern and northern NE get little to nothing? Just curious. Thanks.

It's the nature of convection. I live just S of Boston and haven't had much either. 

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West Point, NY

West Point, NY

Posted
Posted

COC on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Still in the 80s with moderate humidity on Thursday.   Hot or very hot for the beachgoers next weekend. Still can't complain about this summer. Let next week be summer's apex. I will be at my timeshare on the Delaware River in PA. I like the water warm as I tie my tube to the raft and float down the river. 

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

if only this website had a place dedicated to climate change discussion-oh wait, it does!

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

It's not like there were pages of comments...just three.  It's a mundane pattern and this is a pattern thread.

Speaking of the pattern, looks like a nice pair of CoC coming up this week but I think that will be over shadowed by the heat next weekend but let's see how that plays out as we get closer.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Overall pattern is warm and humid.   Doodle doo will be less frequent it would seem.

Yup..the rest of the summer will be pretty much like what we've seen the past 4-5 days. A couple fronts break it for a day own 2 and it comes right back. Really what many folks expected to happen this summer. One that will be remembered for the heat

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup..the rest of the summer will be pretty much like what we've seen the past 4-5 days. A couple fronts break it for a day own 2 and it comes right back. Really what many folks expected to happen this summer. One that will be remembered for the heat

I wouldn't go that far, but the next week will be warm. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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heat this weekend could be in trouble tho - it's a not a slam dunk for those bigger numbers..

00z oper. versions ... pretty much across all of them, struggled and fumbled until they each found ways not to paint the same "appeal" as they had over the previous several cycles. 

THAT would be fitting for this summer, as it would be a theme played out relentlessly ... big signal vanished inside of D6.  We'll see if the erosion of the heat continues in this 12z.

in more practical terms ... the key appears to be what actually gets ejected out of the west through mid week.  the runs have been inconsistent with the amount of mechanical power that will pass west to east immediately astride/above the Can border with the lower 48 .. that feature is key.  00z brought it back significantly stronger after having trended the other direction across the previous day and half worth of runs.

the impact of that is important for heat this weekend, because it turns/carves SE ...probably with a sequential MCS/cloud debris as it does so... In fact, the 00z GFS doesn't bring heat at all and is some 10 to 20 F sensibly cooler and probably wetter with that 00z solution.  if the feature goes back to flatter and more inconsequential ... the flow renders it's self to "ridgyness"/positive anomalies and those bigger thickness get pulled up throughout the area.  the GFS isn't alone in that trend break-down; the Euro has it too and caves the heights and even brings CAA on Saturday ... albeit weak.  yes, there are impressive 850 mb numbers still around ... but this is how the game has been played this summer.  

point being... next week hot?   can't even get this weekend to overcome this performance game...

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WEATHERBUFF

WEATHERBUFF

Posted
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22 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

please - the "sensibility" has nothing to do with the solution.  Logically, there are technologies available that would curtail much of the detrimental affects of Human presence.  that's the sensible solution - the problem isn't "sensible" - it's motivation.     

I agree with you on that. I have heard of many technologies available to cool off the oceans and atmosphere ,not sure if they are taken seriously as much as reducing carbon emissions.

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