Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2016 Author Share Posted July 11, 2016 in any event ... i'm not completely sold on a three-day verified heat wave. I spoke a bit about this yesterday, not... the overnight machine MOS outputs (at least from the American side) fail to bring anything more than nuisance warmth with holes punched in 'heat wave' chances. until the tenor of the summer stops engineering anomalies just perfectly wrongly with staggering persistence to do so... eh hm, this summer's mediocrity seems strangely preordained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Tell me this is wrong please http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/RI.MRF.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Wednesday looks DIT-approved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Wednesday looks DIT-approved... image.png TORCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Whole lotta meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Whole lotta meh.I dunno, Wednesday does look quite warm...though pretty standard summer fare with low 90s in the valleys and upper 80s in the hill towns...but dews look to be increasing too for mid/late week.Forecasts showing 90F in Conway and Montpelier, plus 87F at 2,000ft in Lake Placid is a decent summer airmass. Thursday and Friday also look hot...can BDL do a heatwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Yawn... Another seemingly countless... cool, non humid evenings in the gazebo watching the baby deer feed on the back lawn. Every torch lasts a day or two and COC resumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Lolneed a very important 7 day forecast from you hi lows daily qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2016 Author Share Posted July 12, 2016 starting to think it's just going to be 87 to 92 or 88 to 93 for like 10 straight days... wouldn't shock me if any given site fails a heat-wave by a single day in that stretch ... i.e., 2 on 1 off heat, right out to the end... Make sure the period is historically above normal WITHOUT the benefit of the historical annuls having registered officially. noting the (not going to happen??) 10 -day Euro with historic ridging and giant continental heat plume from Venus enveloping all the MW/Lakes and MV region - rivaling 2012 actually. while i wouldn't ever gamble on a day 10, SOME sort of extravagant ridge episode does have merit (i.e., perhaps 10% chance) given to the talking points yesterday and prior re the huge TC frequency event in the far E Pacific ...exhausting anomalous latent heat flux immediately down stream into the sub-40th latitudes of N/A. Iso' keyed ridge potential more into observing subtle modeled, hemispheric scaled constructs ... which certainly may be true. but i also think the causal link can almost operate less connected and more coupled with local hemispheric events. it is summer ..it's harder to blame the western and central Pacific because normal seasonal to r-wave discord/disarray interferes (somewhat) with statistical correlators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Absolute Furnace next week all models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 We Breeze ah love the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2016 Author Share Posted July 13, 2016 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Absolute Furnace next week all models 12z runs? not really .... the mean has a mega heat dome and ridge out there in the Plains with some arming tendency into the Lakes - granted. but there is a whole lotta NW flow at mid lefts cheese grading the heat from ever really getting here... it's possible they models are denting heights too low into the lower maritimes, which is what is causing that preventive flow set up ... but it's probably meaningless to speculate until the model runs this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 It's hot out. We've hit 90F at MVL at 750ft, with 87F so far at the office at 1,500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 28 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's hot out. We've hit 90F at MVL at 750ft, with 87F so far at the office at 1,500ft. It's hotter up there than it is down here. Topped out at 85° at my place (675') and 83° at the nearly 1000' site in town. That's not bad considering I'm at my climo peak of 81°. It stays at 81 until the 30th and then starts ticking backwards. I don't know if I'd call 80s hot this time of year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 1 hour ago, MetHerb said: It's hotter up there than it is down here. Topped out at 85° at my place (675') and 83° at the nearly 1000' site in town. That's not bad considering I'm at my climo peak of 81°. It stays at 81 until the 30th and then starts ticking backwards. I don't know if I'd call 80s hot this time of year though. Yup, at least 88F at 1200ft at MPV ASOS up here today. Looks like at least 86F at ORH at 1,000ft. With dews in mid-60s it feels plenty hot even if it is "80s". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Ct Rain station has 89, 92, 88, ,88, 92,92 ,89 next 7 days. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ct Rain station has 89, 92, 88, ,88, 92,92 ,89 next 7 days. Nice! Yeah it's here it seems...but this time without lows in the 40s, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it's here it seems...but this time without lows in the 40s, haha. This is kind of what I think we will see for most of July and August. Going to go into an extended WAN pattern that wil probably be broken by some ring of fire storms up and over the monster ridge. Seems like they will be more like a dry line where the dews lower for a day , but temps stay upper 80's to 90, then dews come right back next day . If it sets up correctly, you can see us getting very active. Sort of like what's been happening in upper Midwest last 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ct Rain station has 89, 92, 88, ,88, 92,92 ,89 next 7 days. Nice! With the average normal high around 85°, I don't know how those 80s are anything special. It's all relative I guess but I wouldn't call 20s "cold" in January and I don't think we should call a few degrees above climo "hot" either. I mean, it's peak climo so you expect it to be warm. If we can push mid 90s, then we'll be talking about some heat. I get that it's more humid but I think you expect that from time to time. I won't even mention that those are numbers for the valley and you won't see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 12 minutes ago, MetHerb said: With the average normal high around 85°, I don't know how those 80s are anything special. It's all relative I guess but I wouldn't call 20s "cold" in January and I don't think we should call a few degrees above climo "hot" either. I mean, it's peak climo so you expect it to be warm. If we can push mid 90s, then we'll be talking about some heat. I get that it's more humid but I think you expect that from time to time. I won't even mention that those are numbers for the valley and you won't see them. I don't see why it needs to be down-played though. I give DIT a lot of flak but this time it is a hot (or warm) pattern with a good deal of HHH type conditions. I don't think it needs to be mid-90s to be hot. Even normal is pretty darn hot this time of year. Hot doesn't imply way above average necessarily...unless otherwise stated. Just like February climo is plenty cold in ski country, just because it's near normal doesn't mean it's not cold out that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 2 hours ago, MetHerb said: It's hotter up there than it is down here. Topped out at 85° at my place (675') and 83° at the nearly 1000' site in town. That's not bad considering I'm at my climo peak of 81°. It stays at 81 until the 30th and then starts ticking backwards. I don't know if I'd call 80s hot this time of year though. Still close to 80F here at 7:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Some NNE highs today...getting 90F up to 1,200ft is fairly impressive. CON...93F (300ft) BTV...91F (300ft) IZG...91F (500ft) BML...90F (1,200ft) MVL...90F (750ft) HIE...90F (1,000ft) MPV...88F (1,200ft) SLK...86F (1,700ft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 49 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it's here it seems...but this time without lows in the 40s, haha. This is kind of what I think we will see for most of July and August. Going to go into an extended WAN pattern that wil probably be broken by some ring of fire storms up and over the monster ridge. Seems like they will be more like a dry line where the dews lower for a day , but temps stay upper 80's to 90, then dews come right back next day . If it sets up correctly, you can see us getting very active. Sort of like what's been happening in upper Midwest last 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 This seems to be a major problem. The misunderstanding that 92-93 and dews 65-72 at BDL isn't hot . It is , and it means hills will be 85-89 with dews which for elevated areas is hot. It just doesn't often go above 90 in the hills. I thought folks knew that. When it does.. Guess what valleys ate 95-100. It's relative. I don't think anyone can argue looking at the progs that we are not settling into a hot , WAN pattern the next 2+ weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Sitting at the notorious Hotspot in I JD not hot feels very nice and I have no idea what the dews are but there is a beautiful cooling breeze Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This seems to be a major problem. The misunderstanding that 92-93 and dews 65-72 at BDL isn't hot . It is , and it means hills will be 85-89 with dews which for elevated areas is hot. It just doesn't often go above 90 in the hills. I thought folks knew that. When it does.. Guess what valleys ate 95-100. It's relative. I don't think anyone can argue looking at the progs that we are not settling into a hot , WAN pattern the next 2+ weeks Did you see the Euro What in the Sam Hell are you looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Did you see the Euro What in the Sam Hell are you looking at What? Dude.. The hot pattern is here. Just enjoy your beach vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Looks like BOS got at least a 91F today...not bad for being on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: I don't see why it needs to be down-played though. I give DIT a lot of flak but this time it is a hot (or warm) pattern with a good deal of HHH type conditions. I don't think it needs to be mid-90s to be hot. Even normal is pretty darn hot this time of year. Hot doesn't imply way above average necessarily...unless otherwise stated. Just like February climo is plenty cold in ski country, just because it's near normal doesn't mean it's not cold out that time of year. Not down playing anything. We'll just have to agree to disagree. I just don't consider 88 "hot" in the middle of summer. 92 maybe but again, that's just me. Like I said, it's all relative - someone in Arizona would laugh at us calling 90s hot or 80s in March would be hot. I just don't consider 80s in July to be hot. It is certainly a warm pattern not questioning that, just calling it hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.