ORH_wxman Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: fyi and fwiw there is still another heat signal for the ~ D7 -11 time range. it's moved closer since it emerged a few clicks ago, but it's behaving in the runs the way all the heat has this summer ... as though it is being fought against - just when one frame looks like it's going to bulge... it just somehow doesn't. funny how we've still managed an extended heat wave here - i guess the observation fits more with what has taken place June 1 through July 15 rather than since then. nevertheless, this summer's crept back into respectability for heat and recent convection. it's rescued from F to C- ... got a ways to go obviously. btw, CV season may get under way here over the next couple few days. Yeah it looks like early August may have some of that fringe heat again...where it is roasting the Midwest and great lakes down to the mid-atlantic, but only clipping us. Definitely would be warm/hot, but nothing crazy....unless we can roll that ridge over the top a bit further east. Seems to run into a brick wall though in the eastern lakes and gets shunted to our southwest. The ensembles have been showing a really intense setup for heat over the central U.S. into the 2nd week of August...that is a very strong look. Just baking in a huge ridge there. It keeps it mostly west of us though....but it wouldn't take a whole lot to give us an impressive day or 3 if we can break off a hunk of that ridge and roll it over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2016 Author Share Posted July 27, 2016 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it looks like early August may have some of that fringe heat again...where it is roasting the Midwest and great lakes down to the mid-atlantic, but only clipping us. Definitely would be warm/hot, but nothing crazy....unless we can roll that ridge over the top a bit further east. Seems to run into a brick wall though in the eastern lakes and gets shunted to our southwest. The ensembles have been showing a really intense setup for heat over the central U.S. into the 2nd week of August...that is a very strong look. Just baking in a huge ridge there. It keeps it mostly west of us though....but it wouldn't take a whole lot to give us an impressive day or 3 if we can break off a hunk of that ridge and roll it over us. Interesting ... are you referring to the EPS ? though the PNA is supposedly less than correlated this time of year (CDC doesn't even calculate the matrices JJA)... there is a very strong signal (GEFs) from both agencies of -PNA ... circa August 10. even thought it doesn't correlate as well...seems like a 'hot' coincidence. but your right - playing with fire so to speak - ...this kind of reminds me of the antithesis of the 2013 winter.. That xmass that year was balmed out and miserable... not a week prior, 9 F type cold waft in and out mockingly doing nothing other than hardening the earth and smacking snow starved faces. Point being, it was cold as hell ... then it was annoyingly warm and rainy, followed by more sluggish starter cold much of Dec in to Jan. a met buddy and i thought of that winter as playing with matches because there were no shortages of either events, or cold, they were just spatial-temporally out of sync. then .... Feb comes along and they were suddenly IN sync. boom - seems the heat domes been there when the shunt wall (perhaps nuanced NAO ??) was in place. it's been hot the last 10 days, but it hasn't had that 'brown out' appeal...with advisories from Georgia to Maine, either. we've sorta been getting the sloppy seconds - eew. but, heh - 90+ is 90+ so it is what it is. i guess what it is, is that there's been a lot of unrealized potential despite how warm it has been - it simply could very easily have been a lot worse. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty amazing yesterday when the wind switched to Northerly on the beach, some 10 degrees warmer than inland. Low 90s at 7pm while inland was in the 80s. Probably the best beach vacation I ever had complete with some great surf days. Spectacular weather with inland Tstoms watching from afar. Seems to me a pattern similar to early July with rapid changes is imminent. Also seems a wetter turn. I would not be surprised if we are watching the tropics pretty closely by mid August if the SAL gets washed out. We rain, Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 And yet another 90F (89.9 on a local Davis) IMBY can we do it again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: And yet another 90F (89.9 on a local Davis) IMBY can we do it again? Jeez, you hitting 90F a few times is more impressive than any BDL number haha. Up this way BTV has hit 90F while MVL here in the valley has hit 86F. Still waiting for our first 90F at the Stowe-Morrisville ASOS. 1500ft at the office hit 84F briefly but mostly 82F all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Jeez, you hitting 90F a few times is more impressive than any BDL number haha. Up this way BTV has hit 90F while MVL here in the valley has hit 86F. Still waiting for our first 90F at the Stowe-Morrisville ASOS. 1500ft at the office hit 84F briefly but mostly 82F all afternoon. I think we had zero 90s in 2014 and 2015. I think this makes 6 this season The PWS could be off, too but it looks to match my own thermometer, my car thermo, and some nearby stations. I will check what Barre Falls Dam got to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Pray Sept and Oct don't play out like this . Endless summer FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pray Sept and Oct don't play out like this . Endless summer FTL Why wouldn't we want endless summer? Sept is by far the best time to on the lakes, beaches. Touristas and soccer Moms are all back home or in school and the water is the warmest of the year. Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 unfortunately the CFS is not as robust as NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Why wouldn't we want endless summer? Sept is by far the best time to on the lakes, beaches. Touristas and soccer Moms are all back home or in school and the water is the warmest of the year. Bring it on I like warm falls. I do like the occasional cool snap to remind us the season is changing, but I have absolutely zero use for days and days of 40s/50s in the fall. I like those 67/40 type days. At any rate, models definitely converging on us getting rain for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I like warm falls. I do like the occasional cool snap to remind us the season is changing, but I have absolutely zero use for days and days of 40s/50s in the fall. I like those 67/40 type days. At any rate, models definitely converging on us getting rain for Friday. I don't think any of us mind mild Septembers as that's still summer. But there's probably not many that want warm Octobers and Novembers with green leaves etc.. This fall looks awfully warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 100% agree with Will. Warm fall with potent cold shots interspersed. Then have the rubber band snap in late Nov/early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don't think any of us mind mild Septembers as that's still summer. But there's probably not many that want warm Octobers and Novembers with green leaves etc.. This fall looks awfully warm. Above normal October/November does not equal endless summer or green leaves through Thanksgiving. The leaves may fall later but they will fall. Remember that daylight will be declining regardless of temperatures. Also, normal highs are in the 50s so technically a high around 60 would qualify as "above normal". I wouldn't call that summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don't think any of us mind mild Septembers as that's still summer. But there's probably not many that want warm Octobers and Novembers with green leaves etc.. This fall looks awfully warm. Above normal October/November does not equal endless summer or green leaves through Thanksgiving. The leaves may fall later but they will fall. Remember that daylight will be declining regardless of temperatures. Also, normal highs are in the 50s so technically a high around 60 would qualify as "above normal". I wouldn't call that summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Driving around seeing temps in the low 90s at 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 100% agree with Will. Warm fall with potent cold shots interspersed. Then have the rubber band snap in late Nov/early Dec. perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 56 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Driving around seeing temps in the low 90s at 7PM glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Driving around seeing temps in the low 90s at 7PM lol BTV is still at 81F as of 9:10pm...right there with BDL. Over on the east side of the Spine we are down to 70F with the window fans on high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 43 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol BTV is still at 81F as of 9:10pm...right there with BDL. Over on the east side of the Spine we are down to 70F with the window fans on high. 73/53 here right now. Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: glad we don't live there We saw a car thermo temp of 93 in Bolton at 6:45. 90 near KFIT at 7:05, 83 at the Hubb at 7:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Warm fall means extended golf season, yard activities, etc. love them, best season down here since our springs can be wet and cold with the cold ocean influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 I like these kind of under the radar battles... we have the old dry begets dry phenomenon clearly in place. heck, the convective wall punching S out of NH the other night ran into meso-beta scaled pocket of soil-sucked dry air down here and poof... gone. SPC even noted that they were hesitant to extend the watch s because of the noted dry air over our neck of the woods - they did anyway and all we got was a near severe gust front of eye stinging dust transport, some dark clouds and a sprinkle. that's basically how dry begets dry - or at least one example. anyway, on the flip side we have a high DP transport but weak baroclinic wave rippling up the nodal trough slope out of the lower Ohio and Tennessee V region right at this dry region. i'd have to bet on the synoptics winning over a meso-beta scaled negative feed-back process like a small scaled short-term drought scenario taking place in a smaller scale geographical region. but, it'll be interesting to see, and see if we have heavy rains and tropical misty fog over beige fields. kind of a dichotomy of physical states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 GEFs appear to be sniffing out the warm first week of August that Will and I were covering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Day 9 straight of 90+ at BDL. Tomorrow should make 10. That's a record.But, no-one will remember this as a hot stretch it seems. I will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Day 9 straight of 90+ at BDL. Tomorrow should make 10. That's a record.But, no-one will remember this as a hot stretch it seems. I will Do you remember the highly touted July 2013 or July/August 1995? That's when the current record of 10 was set so if tomorrow hits 90, it only ties the record. And if no one is cranking out the "remember the summer of 1995" statements, I don't think most people will remember this July or stretch of weather. Not saying it's not different, but just not the way you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 52F...perfect sleeping weather. SLK with 43-44F lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 11 hours ago, MetHerb said: Do you remember the highly touted July 2013 or July/August 1995? That's when the current record of 10 was set so if tomorrow hits 90, it only ties the record. And if no one is cranking out the "remember the summer of 1995" statements, I don't think most people will remember this July or stretch of weather. Not saying it's not different, but just not the way you think. The summer of 95 was very memorable for any wx weenie that was old enough to remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Sticky 15 mile run this morning. Looks like BDL will tie the record today with a 90 or 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Most forgettable so called hot period ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sticky 15 mile run this morning. Looks like BDL will tie the record today with a 90 or 91 Good thing nobody lives on the Tarmac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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