Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 ... i suspect the mechanisms that 'gear' the total fluid nature of the atmosphere, when considering how the ocean-atmospheric coupling (meaning ... as they physically effect one another) in part forces the former .. comes down to orders of magnitude. when we were undergrads, we learned at the 101 level that a very effective means to define any system in nature, in time, is a method called "equation scaling" what that is, is taking all variables in the physical equation that best describes the the system, and determining which one has the greatest ...thus, dominant influence on the whole. in this case, it doesn't take any kind of hugely imaginative intuitive leap, when realizing some basic physical laws, to assess the ocean as a potentially powerful variable in the equations defining; the specific heat of water is like ... several orders of magnitude more than free air. as whom ever rightfully described, .. .there is also the rotation of the Earth (the most powerful of all) forcing the base-line 'west-to-east' motion at middle latitudes. to me, it's very easy supposition to make, that the Pacific SSTs and how those thermal kisses with the atmosphere effect the atmospheric circulation, would have a greater impact across the land mass of North American, than the west Atlantic does - the latter is unlikely to transmit a signal back against the base-line west-to-east state. It does, however, had in situ power to alter the characteristic of events that 'curl' (cyclones/ anticyclones...etc); but those are local in both time and space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 On 9/18/2016 at 11:51 AM, Typhoon Tip said: ... i suspect the mechanisms that 'gear' the total fluid nature of the atmosphere, when considering how the ocean-atmospheric coupling (meaning ... as they physically effect one another) in part forces the former .. comes down to orders of magnitude. when we were undergrads, we learned at the 101 level that a very effective means to define any system in nature, in time, is a method called "equation scaling" what that is, is taking all variables in the physical equation that best describes the the system, and determining which one has the greatest ...thus, dominant influence on the whole. in this case, it doesn't take any kind of hugely imaginative intuitive leap, when realizing some basic physical laws, to assess the ocean as a potentially powerful variable in the equations defining; the specific heat of water is like ... several orders of magnitude more than free air. as whom ever rightfully described, .. .there is also the rotation of the Earth (the most powerful of all) forcing the base-line 'west-to-east' motion at middle latitudes. to me, it's very easy supposition to make, that the Pacific SSTs and how those thermal kisses with the atmosphere effect the atmospheric circulation, would have a greater impact across the land mass of North American, than the west Atlantic does - the latter is unlikely to transmit a signal back against the base-line west-to-east state. It does, however, had in situ power to alter the characteristic of events that 'curl' (cyclones/ anticyclones...etc); but those are local in both time and space. Exactly what I meant. The Atlantic really only matters during storm systems that induce onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 On 9/18/2016 at 10:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only during early season storms for the CP. If anything, the I think the alignment of ATL ssts is favorable. I was thinking more from a H5 standpoint from the warm waters near and west of Bermuda. Additional warmth to already warm waters may help that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was thinking more from a H5 standpoint from the warm waters near and west of Bermuda. Additional warmth to already warm waters may help that. You mean aiding in the development of season WAR? In a weak/neutral ENSO season, I'm not very concerned about that N of 40* lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You mean aiding in the development of season WAR? In a weak/neutral ENSO season, I'm not very concerned about that N of 40* lat. Somewhat, but there are other things that obviously override it. I wasn't trying infer something bad about winter...but I think it had helped over the last several years in the summer as far as the very warm east coast. I honestly have no idea what to expect down here. I hear conflicting thoughts, but I feel better about this winter, than last winter. Of course, that doesn't mean squat to Mother Nature..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Somewhat, but there are other things that obviously override it. I wasn't trying infer something bad about winter...but I think it had helped over the last several years in the summer as far as the very warm east coast. I honestly have no idea what to expect down here. I hear conflicting thoughts, but I feel better about this winter, than last winter. Of course, that doesn't mean squat to Mother Nature..lol. I'd be on Jerry's bus, but the QBO glitch gives me pause..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Atmosphere is showing signs of Nina though despite SSTs. OLR is out in the maritime continent, SOI going up etc. It's telling us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 the soi has been mostly positive the last 30 days...33.03 on day 256...compare that to a 81.43 the end of March 2011...todays number was 12.54...it is a constant weak positive soi over the last month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: the soi has been mostly positive the last 30 days...33.03 on day 256...compare that to a 81.43 the end of March 2011...todays number was 12.54...it is a constant weak positive soi over the last month... It will be interesting how atmosphere response is, despite SST classification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 All eyes on EPO NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: All eyes on EPO NAO I'm hopeful that the weak nina and the "warm blob" couplet can get an EPO feedback going....maybe some super nino hangover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 On September 18, 2016 at 10:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only during early season storms for the CP. If anything, the I think the alignment of ATL ssts is favorable. This software has me responding to the wrong post again. Anyways, Ray.....I think they'll be a hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 Positive PDO and weak Nina has a few examples...but not many. The examples we do have though are pretty good winters. 1983-1984 1984-1985 1995-1996 2000-2001 Only '84-'85 was kind of a dud, but January 1985 might have been one of the bigger squanders of a great pattern. You'd probably get a lot more snow out of that pattern 90% of the time if you repeated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Positive PDO and weak Nina has a few examples...but not many. The examples we do have though are pretty good winters. 1983-1984 1984-1985 1995-1996 2000-2001 Only '84-'85 was kind of a dud, but January 1985 might have been one of the bigger squanders of a great pattern. You'd probably get a lot more snow out of that pattern 90% of the time if you repeated it. FWIW, those were some nice winters in the Midwest...at least parts of them. 1983-1984: frigid December, including -25 in Chicago on Christmas Eve and -40s in the Northern Plains. MSP's avg temp in Dec 1983 was 3.7F. 1984-1985: all-time record low of -27 in Chicago on January 20...after it was in the upper 60s in late December 1995-1996: very up and down temps...including -60 in Tower MN on 2/2/1996 2000-2001: Very cold and snowy December (over 40" in Chicago)...but then winter ended after December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Positive PDO and weak Nina has a few examples...but not many. The examples we do have though are pretty good winters. 1983-1984 1984-1985 1995-1996 2000-2001 Only '84-'85 was kind of a dud, but January 1985 might have been one of the bigger squanders of a great pattern. You'd probably get a lot more snow out of that pattern 90% of the time if you repeated it. The polar blob that (IIRC) dominated January 1985 in all but the far West also kept the moisture away. State record cold was set that month in NC/SC/VA (and CO on Feb 1), and also gave NYC its only single-digit max since 1943. N.Maine missed the core, with the Jan low at the Ft. Kent co-op, -20, was just 1° colder than that SC state record. However, the max for the whole month was a mere 22. It was also my driest of 10 Januarys there, with barely half of the 2nd driest. The other 3 were great. 83-84 was when my 61" snow stake had to be extended as the depth reached 65" in the March 26.5" dump, biggest snowfall I've measured. 95-96 had loads of snow and cold, though it was badly marred by the 3 January torch-deluges, with Farmington depth plummeting from 40" to 8" in 15 January days. 00-01 set the standard for late snowpack, with 47" on April 1, an inch deeper in New Sharon than 4/1/84 in Ft. Kent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 GFS seems to be too progressive during EL Nino seasons and not progressive enough with La NIna seasons with the northern jet stream. Also influencing the northern stream is the situation of the NAO/PNA/AO indices. So depending upon their positions, will greatly influence the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Positive PDO and weak Nina has a few examples...but not many. The examples we do have though are pretty good winters. 1983-1984 1984-1985 1995-1996 2000-2001 Only '84-'85 was kind of a dud, but January 1985 might have been one of the bigger squanders of a great pattern. You'd probably get a lot more snow out of that pattern 90% of the time if you repeated it. the ao numbers for those analogs...1983-84 had stronger -ao the second half of the winter...March was cold and snowy...1984-85 had strong -ao in January...1995-96 had strong -ao in December...2000-01 had a strong -ao most of the winter... season December January February March.../lowest and date... 83-84....+0.186....+0.905.....-0.303.....-2.386.........-3.706...03/13/84...record cold at the time... 84-85....+0.446.....-2.806.....-1.440....+0.551.........-6.226...01/19/85...record cold at the time... 95-96.....-2.127.....-1.200....+0.163.....-1.483.........-4.353...12/19/95...snowstorm along the east coast... 00-01.....-2.354.....-0.959.....-0.622.....-1.687.........-4.854...02/25/01...snowstorm and cold around NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 10 hours ago, uncle W said: the ao numbers for those analogs...1983-84 had stronger -ao the second half of the winter...March was cold and snowy...1984-85 had strong -ao in January...1995-96 had strong -ao in December...2000-01 had a strong -ao most of the winter... season December January February March.../lowest and date... 83-84....+0.186....+0.905.....-0.303.....-2.386.........-3.706...03/13/84...record cold at the time... 84-85....+0.446.....-2.806.....-1.440....+0.551.........-6.226...01/19/85...record cold at the time... 95-96.....-2.127.....-1.200....+0.163.....-1.483.........-4.353...12/19/95...snowstorm along the east coast... 00-01.....-2.354.....-0.959.....-0.622.....-1.687.........-4.854...02/25/01...snowstorm and cold around NYC... All -AO seasons in the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 On 9/17/2016 at 0:45 PM, powderfreak said: Yeah his thought process made sense to a degree. Liked 4 of the 8 storm tracks too. Those are pretty typical tracks most winters outside of the clippers the last few seasons On 9/18/2016 at 1:50 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: All the warm great lakes imply to me is the likelihood of a hell of LES season. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 Had some fun today running snow accumulation graphs since Oct 2000 for various tri state SNE locations. The majority of the 1000 plus inch club runs from NECT to ORH county to NE MASS, NW CT into the Berks. A decided drop off occurred in the CT valley in the 800's. Coastal communities from BDR to BOS also were much less, varying from 857 at Bos to 641 at BDR, however those coastal sites showed the greatest anomalies with BDR for example nearly 200 inches above normal while interior jackpot areas over 1000 were mostly 100 to 150 inches above normal. Even the HFD to Springfield areas despite having overall less snow than non valley locations also had significantly above normal accumulation since 2000. Long term reliable COOP data and ASOS sites were used. With those kind of positive anamolies since 2000 it will take multiple very poor seasons for accumulation graphs to drop back to normal levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Nice work, Steve...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Had some fun today running snow accumulation graphs since Oct 2000 for various tri state SNE locations. The majority of the 1000 plus inch club runs from NECT to ORH county to NE MASS, NW CT into the Berks. A decided drop off occurred in the CT valley in the 800's. Coastal communities from BDR to BOS also were much less, varying from 857 at Bos to 641 at BDR, however those coastal sites showed the greatest anomalies with BDR for example nearly 200 inches above normal while interior jackpot areas over 1000 were mostly 100 to 150 inches above normal. Even the HFD to Springfield areas despite having overall less snow than non valley locations also had significantly above normal accumulation since 2000. Long term reliable COOP data and ASOS sites were used. With those kind of positive anamolies since 2000 it will take multiple very poor seasons for accumulation graphs to drop back to normal levels. BDR is an odd case because they changed the location of their snowfall measurements and it's made a huge difference in their totals recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Had some fun today running snow accumulation graphs since Oct 2000 for various tri state SNE locations. The majority of the 1000 plus inch club runs from NECT to ORH county to NE MASS, NW CT into the Berks. A decided drop off occurred in the CT valley in the 800's. Coastal communities from BDR to BOS also were much less, varying from 857 at Bos to 641 at BDR, however those coastal sites showed the greatest anomalies with BDR for example nearly 200 inches above normal while interior jackpot areas over 1000 were mostly 100 to 150 inches above normal. Even the HFD to Springfield areas despite having overall less snow than non valley locations also had significantly above normal accumulation since 2000. Long term reliable COOP data and ASOS sites were used. With those kind of positive anamolies since 2000 it will take multiple very poor seasons for accumulation graphs to drop back to normal levels. Interesting. In and up seems decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2016 Author Share Posted September 23, 2016 48 minutes ago, CT Rain said: BDR is an odd case because they changed the location of their snowfall measurements and it's made a huge difference in their totals recently. surrounding areas like Central Park are way up Central Park is plus 133 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Quick math looks like ORH is at 1,256.2" of snow starting in the 2000-2001 season. That is 152 inches above expected normal. So they're averaging almost 10" above normal per season since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2016 Author Share Posted September 23, 2016 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Quick math looks like ORH is at 1,256.2" of snow starting in the 2000-2001 season. That is 152 inches above expected normal. So they're averaging almost 10" above normal per season since then. Pretty standard 10 to 15 across the 3 state area You don't need to do math for other areas as NOW data has accumulation parameters I know ORH has those missing years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty standard 10 to 15 across the 3 state area You don't need to do math for other areas as NOW data has accumulation parameters I know ORH has those missing years Yeah that's why I chimed in with the total...I have all the reconstructed data...hopefully it'll get into their database at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2016 Author Share Posted September 23, 2016 Starting to see lots of winter forecasts now with all of them pointing out cold and snowy for a good chunk of the USA. Still on the fence leaning warmer more towards climo. Snow amount is always a crap shoot but still think normal. I will wait until Nov 1 to see if I can make an educated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Starting to see lots of winter forecasts now with all of them pointing out cold and snowy for a good chunk of the USA. Still on the fence leaning warmer more towards climo. Snow amount is always a crap shoot but still think normal. I will wait until Nov 1 to see if I can make an educated guess. Not surprised. I've been on the epic train for the past 6 weeks or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Quick math looks like ORH is at 1,256.2" of snow starting in the 2000-2001 season. That is 152 inches above expected normal. So they're averaging almost 10" above normal per season since then. My NNE area looks about average for the period. Farmington had 1,460" in the 16 winters, 28" above average or about 2"/year, with the 1st winter +55" and the last -43". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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