CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Regardless...as PF said...we all have the snow fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Guys....this is my new go-to mesomap.....bookmark it. https://www.wunderground.com/?cm_ven=PS_GGL_DSA_51620&http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html&gclid=Cj0KEQjw1K2_BRC0s6jtgJzB-aMBEiQA-WzDMcoD3hpzC7T-Z3iYKJTJV-qIknwYKrZMxi2E52zEdiUaAl3X8P8HAQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Outstanding update on the storm. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-rolls-through-lesser-antilles-huge-rains-for-dc-this-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 wet snow holds more water and melts slower than powder at the same depth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Don't forget wet snow globs up and piles up when pushed and plowed while more powdery snow is easily pushed aside. Wet snow is definitely more difficult to deal with. I've yet to have a snowfall so wet that my snowblower wouldn't easily handle it, as long as I don't try to move too fast. The one candidate, late Feb 2010 when 10.7" snow had 2.68" LE (4:1 mashed potatoes) came when I had no mechanical aids beyond a snowscoop. That one also came with my driveway thawed an inch or so and with 1.1" cold rain to boot, and moving it was not fun. The bottom of the scoop digging in (and occasionally grading) the driveway material only made a bad situation worse. In looking at my SWE records, I was surprised how little difference there was between the ratios at coastal plain Gardiner and foothills CAD-capital New Sharon. (Ft. Kent was different, though not by a huge amount.) The hills dam the cold at low elevations while the milder air probably streams overhead, producing frequent low-ratio snow even at temps well under 32. Perhaps the best examples came on VD2007, 15.5" of 8.6-to-1 stuff at single digit temps, and Jan. 2015, 20.0" of 9.2-to-1 at similar temps, the latter with high winds to help settle things. Average ratios for events 4"+ and 10"+, Ft. Kent (9.7 winters), Gardiner (13 winters), and New Sharon (18 winters.) Numbers in parentheses are number of storms. Ft. Kent: 4"+: 11.62 (107); 10"+: 12.06 (24) Gardiner: 4"+: 10.21 (92); 10"+: 10.69 (20) New Sharon: 4"+: 10.81 (131); 10"+: 10.63 (31) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Accuwx winter forecast. Candy to your eyes! http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-winter-forecast-frequent-snow-to-blast-northeast-freeze-may-damage-citrus-crop-in-south/ar-BBwJcq2?li=BBnb7Kz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 My analog blend for now is: 1959-60, 1978-79, 1983-84, 1984-85, 2005-06, 2013-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: My analog blend for now is: 1959-60, 1978-79, 1983-84, 1984-85, 2005-06, 2013-14 That H5 composite screams active eastern seaboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I see you just added precip.....that's what I figured... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 That composite really jives with the ACCUWX outlook....stormy ne, and dry lower plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see you just added precip.....that's what I figured... Yes....the departures for DJF do not tell the whole story for the east coast. Could be some big hitters when the storms track off coast. Actually had to delete a year on 500mb that I added by accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Yes....the departures for DJF do not tell the whole story for the east coast. Could be some big hitters when the storms track off coast. Actually had to delete a year on 500mb that I added by accident. The departures look fine no? Normal is all you need with that much precipitation. If precip is solidly above normal, it'll be a solid winter. I love that temp and precip combo...that's an active coastal hugger style look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 My simple statement that the New England area could see several big time snowstorms, miller Bs could be right afterall. Similar storms to the Blizzard of 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The departures look fine no? Normal is all you need with that much precipitation. If precip is solidly above normal, it'll be a solid winter. I love that temp and precip combo...that's an active coastal hugger style look. Looks like just an active pattern for coastals to me....not sure how you determine track within 50mi from an analog composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: My simple statement that the New England area could see several big time snowstorms, miller Bs could be right afterall. Similar storms to the Blizzard of 2005. I'll bet we get one that drops 38" in Harwichport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 True Ray, I can't wait. I am really excited for this winter, it might be a case where the South Coast gets the fun this winter, sorry NNE, I think you will see average to above average snowfall in the beginning of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: True Ray, I can't wait. I am really excited for this winter, it might be a case where the South Coast gets the fun this winter, sorry NNE, I think you will see average to above average snowfall in the beginning of the season. Some don't understand the new climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I know Ray, I know you are sending sarcasim my way, but I am serious, this winter is going to be long and bad, above average snowfall which is pretty easy for the South Coast, I mean Cape Cod's Harwich, MA snowfall average is around 30-32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 This is a neutral winter season coming up, most likely the northern stream will be more progressive than last year, but how progressive will determine the kind of nor'easters we expect to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 There fore the PNA and NAO will be much more impactful this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I'll take whatever I can get. Lol. Blue bombs. Snow globe bombs. I'm not greedy. Winters can be fickle so I'm happy with anything that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Yes it is for Nova Scotia fickle, but for New England it is pretty uniform most seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes it is for Nova Scotia fickle, but for New England it is pretty uniform most seasons. New England weather is very fickle, and anything but uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like just an active pattern for coastals to me....not sure how you determine track within 50mi from an analog composite. True but when you have positive precip anomalies out to Buffalo, it makes us all feel warm and fuzzy haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Lol powderfreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I wish there was an actual forum I was a part of for the Blizzard of 2005, I kind of regret not finding one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, powderfreak said: True but when you have positive precip anomalies out to Buffalo, it makes us all feel warm and fuzzy haha. Yea...I'm not saying it won't be a deep interior year, but the underlying point is that is seems stormy along the coast.....I'm sure some analog years were full of huggers, some weren't...its a composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 19 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: True Ray, I can't wait. I am really excited for this winter, it might be a case where the South Coast gets the fun this winter, sorry NNE, I think you will see average to above average snowfall in the beginning of the season. True. Harwich, MA CAPE COD USA is the new Jay Peak, Pinkham Notch, and Sugarloaf all rolled into one epic oceanside snow paradise. You are a lock for big snows man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea...I'm not saying it won't be a deep interior year, but the underlying point is that is seems stormy along the coast.....I'm sure some analog years were full of huggers, some weren't...its a composite. Yeah I'm just being a weenie. I'm certainly not saying it will be a deep interior winter, just from a place where moisture surplus is often a snow surplus, that *look* of all three charts is favorable. That 500mb is perfect, as long as it's not overhead we'll all have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I don't know Powderfreak, one area that is very fickle for New England winters is Cape Cod especially Harwich, Chatham, Brewster, Orleans, Eastham, Wellfleet, Truro and Provincetown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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