40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 I'm not sold in a huge season yet. I don't think it looks terrible....but the QBO freaks me out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 QBO was high in some good years...I haven't studied it yet but 59-60 and 66-67 were two good years...this would be the first time the QBO was positive in September two consecutive years... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 I think we have a better shot of -NAO blocking this year despite a possible weak Nina. Maybe not prolonged, but I think the odds are better than previous years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we have a better shot of -NAO blocking this year despite a possible weak Nina. Maybe not prolonged, but I think the odds are better than previous years. Why, more lax solar? I'm not sure why people speak of weak la nina as though its negative....weak ENSO is good. My preferred ENSO states in descending order are: 1 Weak el Nino 2 Weak la Nina 3 Mod Nino 4 Neutral 5) Mod Nina 6) Strong Nino 7) Strong Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 November 1995 and 2010 had a very negative nao on average...both winters got off to a great start...July and August had a very negative nao on average but the first part of September started positive...It is negative again and forecast to drop near the lowest point this year before rising again...Hopefully it continues into the winter... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why, more lax solar? I'm not sure why people speak of weak la nina as though its negative....weak ENSO is good. My preferred ENSO states in descending order are: 1 Weak el Nino 2 Weak la Nina 3 Mod Nino 4 Neutral 5) Mod Nina 6) Strong Nino 7) Strong Nina I mean negative in a NAO sense. Ninas usually promote more of a progressive nature to the mid and higher latitudes. I agree a weak ENSO regime in general is good for us. Of course we can still have plenty of blocking in Ninas like the 60s showed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 the most positive NAO and negative NAO Decembers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 What is going on??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 20 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I mean negative in a NAO sense. Ninas usually promote more of a progressive nature to the mid and higher latitudes. I agree a weak ENSO regime in general is good for us. Of course we can still have plenty of blocking in Ninas like the 60s showed us. I'm not too worried about that given the futile nature of this cold event, coupled with the decaying background of the most intense el nino on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not too worried about that given the futile nature of this cold event, coupled with the decaying background of the most intense el nino on record. actually decent logic here (seein' as you never are - no j/k...) seriously though, the pattern et al was commented a few times by myself and others I had conversation with on this social media and outwardly, ...how the pattern was atypical globally during the span of the warm ENSO. Typical climate markers for warm ENSO events - certainly when considering how potent this one was - were registered with nominal impact; less than the same impacts as even weaker events of lore. in shorter words, ...where the hell was the NINO affect? sure there was some correlators popping up here in there... but nothing like California's 1982 "Pineapple Express" or Darwin hell zones ... or etc etc... Though we did have some heat this summer from time to time, we should have challenged the very endurance of man in NE U.S.; yet if anything... kept finding clever ways to fall short of the governing signal's warning cards. I advanced the [impertinent] jest a while ago that the global atmosphere is warmer now (GW etc) than that prior to and during NINOs of middle last century. You can see this outright with reanalysis products ...such that a warmer world weakens the total gradient during warmer events. Less gradient, less atmospheric response - pretty simple arithmetic there actually. I think it's an interesting supposition - but perhaps I represent a the only voice in the chorus. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 I think due to the neutral conditions the northern stream and southern stream will be equally active. We will have some warm storms, but by in large the northern stream will remain strong and more active, allowing the potential for more miller B snowstorms that go from NJ to the benchmark. Some of them could be massive snowstorms, that may in fact influence the coastal plain more so than inland. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 I think due to the neutral conditions the northern stream and southern stream will be equally active. We will have some warm storms, but by in large the northern stream will remain strong and more active, allowing the potential for more miller B snowstorms that go from NJ to the benchmark. Some of them could be massive snowstorms, that may in fact influence the coastal plain more so than inland. Just my opinion.Interesting...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 This October could feature a decent nor'easter that produces snow inland and rain on the coast with a massive wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 I just Ike seeing blue on the Model maps in the USA at lower els Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Stronger convergence occurring on the western side the tropical wave nearing 45w and 9n in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The seeding of Michael. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Wrong thread James. Big winter incoming however though inland will reassume their dominance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Yeah this has all the earmarks of big interior snows and coastal Ptype issues. This won't be a powder bomb SNE snow year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 All the earmarks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah this has all the earmarks of big interior snows and coastal Ptype issues. This won't be a powder bomb SNE snow year Probably a good year for pike region northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Probably a good year for pike region northward. Seems moreso north of route 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I'll gladly lose to ORH in exchange for banishing the pixie dust CJSs. So sick of seeing Scooter snort lines off of a hairy, barren and blistered P town bum Lets take some power lines/branches down and crack some backs. Place a damn CF on route 128...just like the ones we used to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 8 hours ago, weathafella said: Wrong thread James. Big winter incoming however though inland will reassume their dominance. December 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll gladly lose to ORH in exchange for banishing the pixie dust CJSs. So sick of seeing Scooter snort lines off of a hairy, barren and blistered P town bum Lets take some power lines/branches down and crack some backs. Place a damn CF on route 128...just like the ones we used to know. Not in this new climo regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Look at that OE on the models this week with cold NE winds. It's already starting. Get me that yay-yo to snort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Man, so many inland folks butt-hurt, even though that had about the same amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man, so many inland folks butt-hurt, even though that had about the same amount of snow. We're just going to bump all your meltdowns from Nov/Dec 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not in this new climo regime. I'm so sick of sugar cane..I want a real damn storm. I also want a shot at enhancement for once, as opposed to hoping the cocaine lines are far enough away as not to pork me too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man, so many inland folks butt-hurt, even though that had about the same amount of snow. Don't give the "same amount of snow" crap, either You know the anomalies were night and day. And actually...no, I didn't even get the same amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're just going to bump all your meltdowns from Nov/Dec 2012. Those are worthy of meltdowns. Getting 112" instead of 120" for the season is still pretty awesome in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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