Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, that QBO blip is a real fly in the ointment....i hope that doesn't f*ck the NAO again.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if the drought is going to have a say in things . Obviously winter is a different animal..but I wonder if there's any historical correlation to drier winters during a several year ongoing moderate to severe drought? Like maybe some of the 60's?

That NE drought ran from 1962 thru summer of 1966, with the abundant rain beginning Sept 1966.  IIRC, winters 61-62, 62-63, and 64-65 were well BN in the NYC area though the first two were quite nice here in Maine.  1963-64 was very good in the NYC area and 65-66 about average - great in Baltimore where the late Jan blizzard shut down the city.  I don't think the snow amounts in those 5 winters, whether in NYC or farther north, offer much solid info on correlation.

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

That NE drought ran from 1962 thru summer of 1966, with the abundant rain beginning Sept 1966.  IIRC, winters 61-62, 62-63, and 64-65 were well BN in the NYC area though the first two were quite nice here in Maine.  1963-64 was very good in the NYC area and 65-66 about average - great in Baltimore where the late Jan blizzard shut down the city.  I don't think the snow amounts in those 5 winters, whether in NYC or farther north, offer much solid info on correlation.

1956 to 1965 was the driest 10 year period on record for NYC...snowfall was way above average for that period...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1956 to 1965 was the driest 10 year period on record for NYC...snowfall was way above average for that period...

We bull$hit. We sales.

[uncle W]

since 2009-10 most of the major cities on the east coast got above average snowfall...Philadelphia, NY, and Boston are having their greatest decade so far...

decade.......................Washington.Baltimore. Philadelphia. New York. Boston
1889-90 to 1898-99..........25.7"..........24.5"..........23.8"..........35.8"..........53.5"*
1899-00 to 1908-09..........23.4"..........21.9"..........25.5"..........28.8"..........39.8"
1909-10 to 1918-19..........20.9"..........22.8"..........28.9"..........30.6"..........39.1"
1919-20 to 1928-29..........15.3"..........19.7"..........19.7"..........29.5"..........43.2"
1929-30 to 1938-39..........18.3"..........22.5"..........18.2"..........24.5"..........37.5"
1939-40 to 1948-49..........17.6"..........23.4"..........21.4"..........32.8"..........42.9"
1949-50 to 1958-59..........12.8"..........14.7"..........15.2"..........20.1"..........37.2"
1959-60 to 1968-69..........24.8"..........32.4"..........29.1"..........32.0"..........49.4"
1969-70 to 1978-79..........14.6"..........17.8"..........21.7"..........22.5"..........44.6"
1979-80 to 1988-89..........18.1"..........18.5"..........20.4"..........19.7"..........32.7"
1989-90 to 1998-99..........12.9"..........17.7"..........18.5"..........24.4"..........49.7"
1999-00 to 2008-09..........12.7"..........18.0"..........20.7"..........28.0"..........44.9"
2009-10 to 2015-16..........20.5"..........29.1"..........36.6"..........41.0"..........56.5"

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

since 2009-10 most of the major cities on the east coast got above average snowfall...Philadelphia, NY, and Boston are having their greatest decade so far...

decade.......................Washington.Baltimore. Philadelphia. New York. Boston
1889-90 to 1898-99..........25.7"..........24.5"..........23.8"..........35.8"..........53.5"*
1899-00 to 1908-09..........23.4"..........21.9"..........25.5"..........28.8"..........39.8"
1909-10 to 1918-19..........20.9"..........22.8"..........28.9"..........30.6"..........39.1"
1919-20 to 1928-29..........15.3"..........19.7"..........19.7"..........29.5"..........43.2"
1929-30 to 1938-39..........18.3"..........22.5"..........18.2"..........24.5"..........37.5"
1939-40 to 1948-49..........17.6"..........23.4"..........21.4"..........32.8"..........42.9"
1949-50 to 1958-59..........12.8"..........14.7"..........15.2"..........20.1"..........37.2"
1959-60 to 1968-69..........24.8"..........32.4"..........29.1"..........32.0"..........49.4"
1969-70 to 1978-79..........14.6"..........17.8"..........21.7"..........22.5"..........44.6"
1979-80 to 1988-89..........18.1"..........18.5"..........20.4"..........19.7"..........32.7"
1989-90 to 1998-99..........12.9"..........17.7"..........18.5"..........24.4"..........49.7"
1999-00 to 2008-09..........12.7"..........18.0"..........20.7"..........28.0"..........44.9"
2009-10 to 2015-16..........20.5"..........29.1"..........36.6"..........41.0"..........56.5"

not to single you out here ... but, i'm curious what the numbers look like if we remove the mega February? 

this post could be a nice example of why statistics sort of belies the reality. 

 ... in other words, if we remove that one single month's worth of data, what is that for Boston.  it was just such an absurd anomaly that it may just be pulling the last 7 years along into an unrealistic impression of that the general theme has been.  it's always a risk using scalar numbers to describe a system -

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not to single you out here ... but, i'm curious what the numbers look like if we remove the mega February? 

this post could be a nice example of why statistics sort of belies the reality. 

 ... in other words, if we remove that one single month's worth of data, what is that for Boston.  it was just such an absurd anomaly that it may just be pulling the last 7 years along into an unrealistic impression of that the general theme has been.  it's always a risk using scalar numbers to describe a system -

you can say that for many years including 1969...I don't have access to Boston records but the same goes for NYC on a greater scale...

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you can say that for many years including 1969...I don't have access to Boston records but the same goes for NYC on a greater scale...

yeah was going to say the same. I mean pull 5 weeks out of any winter and you are only left with 7. Jan 21 78 and Feb 6 78 accounted for 85% of my snow that year. It just doesn't work in statistical decadal analysis. 

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

since 2009-10 most of the major cities on the east coast got above average snowfall...Philadelphia, NY, and Boston are having their greatest decade so far...

decade.......................Washington.Baltimore. Philadelphia. New York. Boston
1889-90 to 1898-99..........25.7"..........24.5"..........23.8"..........35.8"..........53.5"*
1899-00 to 1908-09..........23.4"..........21.9"..........25.5"..........28.8"..........39.8"
1909-10 to 1918-19..........20.9"..........22.8"..........28.9"..........30.6"..........39.1"
1919-20 to 1928-29..........15.3"..........19.7"..........19.7"..........29.5"..........43.2"
1929-30 to 1938-39..........18.3"..........22.5"..........18.2"..........24.5"..........37.5"
1939-40 to 1948-49..........17.6"..........23.4"..........21.4"..........32.8"..........42.9"
1949-50 to 1958-59..........12.8"..........14.7"..........15.2"..........20.1"..........37.2"
1959-60 to 1968-69..........24.8"..........32.4"..........29.1"..........32.0"..........49.4"
1969-70 to 1978-79..........14.6"..........17.8"..........21.7"..........22.5"..........44.6"
1979-80 to 1988-89..........18.1"..........18.5"..........20.4"..........19.7"..........32.7"
1989-90 to 1998-99..........12.9"..........17.7"..........18.5"..........24.4"..........49.7"
1999-00 to 2008-09..........12.7"..........18.0"..........20.7"..........28.0"..........44.9"
2009-10 to 2015-16..........20.5"..........29.1"..........36.6"..........41.0"..........56.5"

You should run ALB, BTV, SYR or something to see what the interior Northeast looks like.

I believe 2000-2010 is BTV's snowiest decade on record.

 

[dendrite]

It's hard to compare the last 10-15 years to the past when airports are clearing every 6hrs now.

[ORH_wxman]

17 hours ago, dendrite said:

It's hard to compare the last 10-15 years to the past when airports are clearing every 6hrs now.

 

We'd almost certainly still have prolific numbers if we did the "ruler at the end of the storm" method too...given the nearby coops who do that have produced some big totals too recently. But yeah, it's inflated a bit...especially if you have a winter with several 15"+ storms. In nickel and dime winter, the 6 hour effect is not as much.

[tamarack]

21 hours ago, uncle W said:

you can say that for many years including 1969...I don't have access to Boston records but the same goes for NYC on a greater scale...

Having those decades start with x9-x0 boosts the avg for DCA/BWI/PHL by 6-8" over a start of x0-x1, as those locations had 300-400% avg snowfall in 2009-10.  (NYC, only a 2" change, and BOS avg would actually go up.)  Since 06-07 thru 08-09 ran about half normal for those first 3 - less than half at DCA and above half for PHL thanks to 13-14 - taking decades backwards from the most recent 10 years would still be well AN, but les dramatically.   (Of course, it was a "pro-weenie" post, so nbd.)

You should run ALB, BTV, SYR or something to see what the interior Northeast looks like.

Farther east, Farmington co-op average is 83.4" for those 7 winters, compared to the LT average of 89.5".  Of course, both the 1st and last of those seven were ratters here - just a different kind of statistical fun.

[uncle W]

31 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Having those decades start with x9-x0 boosts the avg for DCA/BWI/PHL by 6-8" over a start of x0-x1, as those locations had 300-400% avg snowfall in 2009-10.  (NYC, only a 2" change, and BOS avg would actually go up.)  Since 06-07 thru 08-09 ran about half normal for those first 3 - less than half at DCA and above half for PHL thanks to 13-14 - taking decades backwards from the most recent 10 years would still be well AN, but les dramatically.   (Of course, it was a "pro-weenie" post, so nbd.)

You should run ALB, BTV, SYR or something to see what the interior Northeast looks like.

Farther east, Farmington co-op average is 83.4" for those 7 winters, compared to the LT average of 89.5".  Of course, both the 1st and last of those seven were ratters here - just a different kind of statistical fun.

I started with 1869-70 because it was the first recorded season from start to finish...January 1869 is when Central Park started to record daily weather...there have been many years in NYC when the bulk of the seasonal snowfall came in one month...2010-11 was a great winter but most of the snow fell in 32 days...I have a list of how many times NYC got 30" of snow in 30 days...It's a short list but has many recent years on there including last year...Boston must have many more 30 day periods with 30" of snow...I wonder how many 30 day periods had 40" of snow?...NYC has only two...

[CoastalWx]

This goes with what Will was saying, but the guy near me who I assume has been doing the same method since 1960, shows a big uptake the last decade. It beat the 60s by a fair amount. I'll have to run the numbers again. There were a few "Ms" in the yearly total, but I think adding the months up was ok.  The 60s were just steady good snow years with not many obscene amounts like we have seen recently. At least down here. 

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This goes with what Will was saying, but the guy near me who I assume has been doing the same method since 1960, shows a big uptake the last decade. It beat the 60s by a fair amount. I'll have to run the numbers again. There were a few "Ms" in the yearly total, but I think adding the months up was ok.  The 60s were just steady good snow years with not many obscene amounts like we have seen recently. At least down here. 

Just for context, if you have time I'd be curious to see yearly totals for your local Coop for the 1960s compared with say the past 10 years.  

Or is it just the Hingham Coop on NOWData?  

I think more than even than the seasonal totals, the number of large KU style events since 2013 is incredible.  Especially after pretty much 0 from Jan 2005 until Boxing Day 2010.

I remember Ray posting in the 2010-11 winter that they were his first KUs on the boards and he joined in like 2006.  For comparison you guys must've had a half dozen since 2013.  It's getting to the point where it's a bad winter if there isn't at least one 18-24" event lol.

[Isotherm]

40N has essentially been the demarcation line insofar as persistently snowy winters vs. much less snowy since the year 2000. Particularly in the early-mid 2000s, there were a handful of 40N+ weighted winters. At my spot in inland CNJ, I've only recorded 3 below average snow years since 2000 (06-07, 07-08, and 11-12). My 2000-2016 average is 36.8" (similar to the average of just south of BOS); 2010-2016 is 41.9"; 2000-2010 is 33.9". My 30-year running (1985/86-2015/16) is now up to 31.2". This is also corroborated by nearby locations. EWR is now up to 30.6" for their 30-year running average. New Brunswick, NJ is 29.7".

Should be interesting when the new 1990-2020 normals are released, particularly if the next few winters are snowy in the Northeast. I expect most NYC stations will be up near 30" (over for some). 

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

40N has essentially been the demarcation line insofar as persistently snowy winters vs. much less snowy since the year 2000. Particularly in the early-mid 2000s, there were a handful of 40N+ weighted winters. At my spot in inland CNJ, I've only recorded 3 below average snow years since 2000 (06-07, 07-08, and 11-12). My 2000-2016 average is 36.8" (similar to the average of just south of BOS); 2010-2016 is 41.9"; 2000-2010 is 33.9". My 30-year running (1985/86-2015/16) is now up to 31.2". This is also corroborated by nearby locations. EWR is now up to 30.6" for their 30-year running average. New Brunswick, NJ is 29.7".

Should be interesting when the new 1990-2020 normals are released, particularly if the next few winters are snowy in the Northeast. I expect most NYC stations will be up near 30" (over for some). 

 

BOS might breach 50" for their 30 year normal by 2020 if we don't get some cruddy winters in the next 4-5 seasons. That's insane to me. I remember when BOS had a 30 year snow of like 41-42"..that was back in '61-'90 and '71-'00 normals.

[uncle W]

I was looking for Boston seasonal snowfall and found Logan Airport from 1936 to present...There are some missing days which I hate using but it's all that I found...Since 1936 Logan got...

00-09.9".....2

10-19.9".....5

20-29.9"...14

30-39.9"...18

40-49.9"...18

50-59.9".....9

60-69.9".....5

70-79.9".....3

80-89.9".....6

90-99.9".....0

100"+.........1

............................

00-39.9"...39/81

40"+.........42/81

50"+.........24/81

the years are pretty even using 40" as the Norm...using 40" as the norm isn't exact but using data with days missing is also not exact...21 of 81 winters or about 25% of them had less than 30" of snow...36 of the 81 had 30-49.9"...about 30% had 50" or more...

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I was looking for Boston seasonal snowfall and found Logan Airport from 1936 to present...There are some missing days which I hate using but it's all that I found...Since 1936 Logan got...

00-09.9".....2

10-19.9".....5

20-29.9"...14

30-39.9"...18

40-49.9"...18

50-59.9".....9

60-69.9".....5

70-79.9".....3

80-89.9".....6

90-99.9".....0

100"+.........1

............................

00-39.9"...39/81

40"+.........42/81

50"+.........24/81

the years are pretty even using 40" as the Norm...using 40" as the norm isn't exact but using data with days missing is also not exact...21 of 81 winters or about 25% of them had less than 30" of snow...36 of the 81 had 30-49.9"...about 30% had 50" or more...

 

Looks like that list is missing some recent years...1995-1996 had 107.6", so the 100+ column should be 2...and 1993-1994 had 96.3" so the 90s column should have 1. I have some differences in other columns too.

 

My breakdown for BOS since 1936 is:

 

0-9.9: 2

10-19.9: 9

20-29.9: 13

30-39.9: 15

40-49.9: 14

50-59.9: 11

60-69.9: 7

70-79.9: 1

80-89.9: 5

90-99.9: 1

100+: 2

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

I started with 1869-70 because it was the first recorded season from start to finish...January 1869 is when Central Park started to record daily weather...there have been many years in NYC when the bulk of the seasonal snowfall came in one month...2010-11 was a great winter but most of the snow fell in 32 days...I have a list of how many times NYC got 30" of snow in 30 days...It's a short list but has many recent years on there including last year...Boston must have many more 30 day periods with 30" of snow...I wonder how many 30 day periods had 40" of snow?...NYC has only two...

Logical, non-cherrypick methodology, and any sequence of 10-winter periods will include some oddities.

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Looks like that list is missing some recent years...1995-1996 had 107.6", so the 100+ column should be 2...and 1993-1994 had 96.3" so the 90s column should have 1. I have some differences in other columns too.

 

My breakdown for BOS since 1936 is:

 

0-9.9: 2

10-19.9: 9

20-29.9: 13

30-39.9: 15

40-49.9: 14

50-59.9: 11

60-69.9: 7

70-79.9: 1

80-89.9: 5

90-99.9: 1

100+: 2

this is the sight I used...

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0770

[dendrite]

9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

We'd almost certainly still have prolific numbers if we did the "ruler at the end of the storm" method too...given the nearby coops who do that have produced some big totals too recently. But yeah, it's inflated a bit...especially if you have a winter with several 15"+ storms. In nickel and dime winter, the 6 hour effect is not as much.

Sure. I'm just saying in general that the change in methods has to be taken into account. If BOS gets 65" this season with a couple of fluff bombs you can't definitively say that it is a snowier winter than some hypothetical year in the 1920s that dropped 57". Obviously most of us know and understand that...I'm just throwing it out there. I definitely agree with your point though. The big recent winters haven't been cheap.

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just for context, if you have time I'd be curious to see yearly totals for your local Coop for the 1960s compared with say the past 10 years.  

Or is it just the Hingham Coop on NOWData?  

I think more than even than the seasonal totals, the number of large KU style events since 2013 is incredible.  Especially after pretty much 0 from Jan 2005 until Boxing Day 2010.

I remember Ray posting in the 2010-11 winter that they were his first KUs on the boards and he joined in like 2006.  For comparison you guys must've had a half dozen since 2013.  It's getting to the point where it's a bad winter if there isn't at least one 18-24" event lol.

Yeah It's Hingham which is just several miles or so to my E.  You can see how variable the last 10 yrs have been (mostly good) compared to the 60s which had remarkable consistency. 

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box

 

 

[CoastalWx]

I take it back. Maybe I did this prior to last winter. 

 

The 60s 1960-1961 through 1969-1970 has 58.8" as yearly avg.  Last 10 yrs 2006-2007 trough 2015-2016 had 54.8"   Not bad considering there was 2 big clunkers in the last decade.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

FWIW his recent 30yr avg 81-10 is 46.5"

[powderfreak]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah It's Hingham which is just several miles or so to my E.  You can see how variable the last 10 yrs have been (mostly good) compared to the 60s which had remarkable consistency. 

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box

 

 

Wow man that stretch from 1963-64 through 1971-72 is crazy consistent.  That's 9 straight winters that fell between 52" and 73.4"...crazy given the variability of snowfall in general.

And Feb 2015 stands out like a sore thumb lol...69.7" is like twice as high as the other monthly records except January 2005's 43.7"....but that's still only 67% of Feb 2015 and it's the next largest month.  That's definitely got some crazy return rate associated with that.

[weathafella]

And we begin thread has been launched.....

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wow man that stretch from 1963-64 through 1971-72 is crazy consistent.  That's 9 straight winters that fell between 52" and 73.4"...crazy given the variability of snowfall in general.

And Feb 2015 stands out like a sore thumb lol...69.7" is like twice as high as the other monthly records except January 2005's 43.7"....but that's still only 67% of Feb 2015 and it's the next largest month.  That's definitely got some crazy return rate associated with that.

That 69.7" is remarkable.  Not many Maine locations have recorded more in a calendar month.  A few in the mountains had more in Feb. 1969 (88" at Long Falls Dam the highest) and 2-3 in Dec. 1970.  In northern Maine, Clayton Lake with 76" in Dec 2003 stands alone.  Machias had 74" in Feb 2015 and EPO had more.  That's it.

[mitchnick]

I don't think this was posted in the thread. JB/Weatherbell early call for winter. 

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

[Ginx snewx]

First call Dec to March climo normal for all on all metrics