Sign in to follow this  
WinterWxLuvr

Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

Speaking of ensembles, the Wxbell ensembles must use the same voodoo science as the operational when it comes to snowfall maps. That would explain much of the crummy forecasts it has showed this season.

It's better than it was but it could still use some work. Or people could stop being snow map weenies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's 6 hr ending 18z. You mostly get precip from about 6z till 18z. Bulk falls 12z-0z in I95 corridor.  

Ouch.  That's the worst possible time for the I-95 corridor.  I suppose hoping it comes 6 hours earlier isn't that much of a fantasy hope.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's better than it was but it could still use some work. Or people could stop being snow map weenies.

I know it's been mentioned that the operational snow maps improved this year (since I didn't have Wxbell before this year, I can't say), but I'm more speaking of the ensemble snow maps. If they haven't been improved since last year and considering this year they have seemed determined to show more snow than reality, at least the mean, then my thought was maybe they haven't been adjusted like the operational. Or maybe they just suck too, idk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1/26/11 was about the warmest I've can remember it being with it still accumulating snow. Of course rates were heavy that day, which helped cool the boundary layer. With the Euro at 35 most of the time on today's run, I can't see it accumulating. But 1/26/11 shows that 33.8 is just cold enough to support snow. These are BWI's obs from that day off Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/2011/1/26/DailyHistory.html

 

So verbatim, we're screwed. Drop it a degree and a half, ideally 2, and there can be some moderate accumulations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1/26/11 was about the warmest I've can remember it being with it still accumulating snow. Of course rates were heavy that day, which helped cool the boundary layer. With the Euro at 35 most of the time on today's run, I can't see it accumulating. But 1/26/11 shows that 33.8 is just cold enough to support snow. These are BWI's obs from that day off Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/2011/1/26/DailyHistory.html

 

So verbatim, we're screwed. Drop it a degree and a half, ideally 2, and there can be some moderate accumulations.

 

Yes, I'm being a weenie...but March 30th, 2014, to me, put to bed the notion that it's impossible for snow to stick during the day this late in the year without absolutely insane rates. I forget what the exact temps were at the time (reading the obs thread, it appeared to be anywhere from 32-35 across the area), but this picture was taken in Howard County in the middle of the afternoon on March 30, 2014, and, if I remember correctly, we torched before this. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-523-0-01704800-1396213592.jpg

 

To be fair, it didn't last long, and when we lulled, all the pavement accumulation melted. But, if I remember correctly, the rates weren't terribly impressive at the time that picture was taken. It was an impressive event, at least to this weenie. ;) Here's the link to the part of the thread discussing that event.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43098-march-14-obs-and-general-discussion/page-24

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I'm being a weenie...but March 30th, 2014, to me, put to bed the notion that it's impossible for snow to stick during the day this late in the year without absolutely insane rates. I forget what the exact temps were at the time (reading the obs thread, it appeared to be anywhere from 32-35 across the area), but this picture was taken in Howard County in the middle of the afternoon on March 30, 2014, and, if I remember correctly, we torched before this. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-523-0-01704800-1396213592.jpg

 

To be fair, it didn't last long, and when we lulled, all the pavement accumulation melted. But, if I remember correctly, the rates weren't terribly impressive at the time that picture was taken. It was an impressive event, at least to this weenie. ;) Here's the link to the part of the thread discussing that event.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43098-march-14-obs-and-general-discussion/page-24

BWI a trace that day.    lol

We don't do well in those kind of events.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We can downplay it all we want but this is becoming a legit threat in general. Maybe we're too warm. Maybe we're not. But for a late season storm, this one is looking pretty good right now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1/26/11 was about the warmest I've can remember it being with it still accumulating snow. Of course rates were heavy that day, which helped cool the boundary layer. With the Euro at 35 most of the time on today's run, I can't see it accumulating. But 1/26/11 shows that 33.8 is just cold enough to support snow. These are BWI's obs from that day off Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/2011/1/26/DailyHistory.html

So verbatim, we're screwed. Drop it a degree and a half, ideally 2, and there can be some moderate accumulations.

And the sun angle will be 20 degrees higher now than it is on 1/26.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro ens look solid. Mitch still doesn't approve though. 

Actually, I do. I'm just not confident with the ensemble snowfall maps. If true, however, they are darn good considering the date.

Did you look at the qpf maps? They are incredibly wet for an ensemble run imho.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually, I do. I'm just not confident with the ensemble snowfall maps. If true, however, they are darn good considering the date.

Did you look at the qpf maps? They are incredibly wet for an ensemble run imho.

 

I'm not worried about snow maps. I know expecting 10:1 is totally insane. However, if 1" of liquid falls as mostly snow then it gets interesting. Really interesting. The only way to overcome crappy temps is to puke snow. And this storm might do that. It's a good month for a dynamic system. And it's not a wimpy vort/storm showing up on the panels. 

 

I totally understand how much is working against the majority of our yards. If I get 2" of mashed potatoes I would be pretty thrilled to be honest. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not worried about snow maps. I know expecting 10:1 is totally insane. However, if 1" of liquid falls as mostly snow then it gets interesting. Really interesting. The only way to overcome crappy temps is to puke snow. And this storm might do that. It's a good month for a dynamic system. And it's not a wimpy vort/storm showing up on the panels.

I totally understand how much is working against the majority of our yards. If I get 2" of mashed potatoes I would be pretty thrilled to be honest.

mmmm garlic mashed potatoes

Great trends today. At least we have something to track. It was dead in here

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We don't accumulate well at this time of year unless it's heavy snow or nigh time or both.  Lets hope this storm is hard and fast and all night long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

mmmm garlic mashed potatoes

Great trends today. At least we have something to track. It was dead in here

It's a tough time of year. Temps are a problem with this one too. A scraper with .5 qpf spread over 12 hours isn't going to do it. We have to get nuked. Especially the 95 corridor. You probably have one of the better chances at hitting 32 overnight. It's pretty unlikely that I get there.

Luckily 850s are plenty cold. A good dose of frontogen and a side order of VV's can get the parachutes and white asteroids going hard enough to cover some stuff in my yard. It's asking a lot but there's a chance so...

It can't go down like snoquester. That wimpy pulsey precip shield sucked. It wasn't supposed to go down like that bit it did. In some ways this is a similar setup with reliance on dynamics. Trending better in that dept today for sure

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The control is pretty drool worthy. And I've not seen a mean as bullish as the eps this late ever. I was shocked when I saw it.

You gotta specify.  Drool worthy for you may not be drool worthy for the rest of us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a tough time of year. Temps are a problem with this one too. A scraper with .5 qpf spread over 12 hours isn't going to do it. We have to get nuked. Especially the 95 corridor. You probably have one of the better chances at hitting 32 overnight. It's pretty unlikely that I get there.

Luckily 850s are plenty cold. A good dose of frontogen and a side order of VV's can get the parachutes and white asteroids going hard enough to cover some stuff in my yard. It's asking a lot but there's a chance so...

It can't go down like snoquester. That wimpy pulsey precip shield sucked. It wasn't supposed to go down like that bit it did. In some ways this is a similar setup with reliance on dynamics. Trending better in that dept today for sure

that storm was weakening and washing out some before redeveloping off New England. We got stuck in between. Plus that convective qpf near Richmond robbed the moisture transport up here. It just went wrong. Doesn't mean this will. We need to get into that developing deform band. If we do though someone will be happy. This is the right setup for late March. Fresh cold air and a developing fast moving coastal with a heavy precip band.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You gotta specify. Drool worthy for you may not be drool worthy for the rest of us.

come on Randy do I really do you guys like that? It's about 8-12" in DC and Baltimore. 10-12 nw burbs. 4-8" se burbs but it goes down fast as you head southeast of the cities but you do good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

come on Randy do I really do you guys like that? It's about 8-12" in DC and Baltimore. 10-12 nw burbs. 4-8" se burbs but it goes down fast as you head southeast of the cities but you do good.

Ha, I wasn't saying you were dogging us, I know you wouldn't..but still..I just wanted to be sure because we might as well live at opposite ends of the earth climate wise. :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I defInitely wouldn't write it off because of the date. Some are leaning a little too hard there given the setup I think. But the 12z is about best case probably. So... Be a little cautious at least. I'd think 2-4 maybe 3-6 is certainly in reach IMBY in that kind of scenario. 10-12 is nonsense for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I defInitely wouldn't write it off because of the date. Some are leaning a little too hard there given the setup I think. But the 12z is about best case probably. So... Be a little cautious at least. I'd think 2-4 maybe 3-6 is certainly in reach IMBY in that kind of scenario. 10-12 is nonsense for now.

Of course it is.   2 to 4 would be big here because of the time of year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha, I wasn't saying you were dogging us, I know you wouldn't..but still..I just wanted to be sure because we might as well live at opposite ends of the earth climate wise. :(

I know but when it looks good here and bad for the metros I disappear and hang out with the interior pa crowd. I'm not going to inflict insult to injury in here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of course it is. 2 to 4 would be big here because of the time of year.

It's a really good setup in theory. If it wasn't spring id be pretty pumped.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.