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Ji

Presidents Day storm Part 2

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Shame. Could have been an awesome event for everyone.

I guess its a shame, but I really don't think this had much of a shot at becoming an awesome event for everyone. Its been clear for a while this is a pretty bad setup, despite what any one model cycle has shown. The CMC is a crap model, but hey its great to hug right now for the blind weenie.

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I guess its a shame, but I really don't think this had much of a shot at becoming an awesome event for everyone. Its been clear for a while this is a pretty bad setup, despite what any one model cycle has shown. The CMC is a crap model, but hey its great to hug right now for the blind weenie.

 

CMC is definitely too far east with the system IMO. It'll eventually correct westward. I'm not a huge fan of that model. It's just eye candy to me, but I take it with a grain of salt. 

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Looks like 6z gfs actually improved for winter weather

  

6z GFS is a disaster.

?????????? This doesn't help anyone trying to get a quick rundown by reading the thread. But I knew nothing good happened overnight when I saw only 1 new page added. When I get up and there are 10 new pages I know it will be good.

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Glancing over the Euro individual ensemble members and there has been a very noticeable shift over the last 2 days of runs with the low moving through the region. 2 days ago we were looking at solutions where roughly 90% (just by eyeballing not counting) of the members showed a deeper low (999 mb or less). Each run since has shown less and less members with this solution to where we are now looking at only roughly 30% (again by eyeballing) with the deeper low. And last nights ensembles was a fairly significant shift from the 12Z which had roughly a 50/50 split between 999mb- and 1000mb+ lows. Also these deeper lows are not as wound up as what we were initially seeing just 2 days ago.

 

Now one would think that the means would reflect this shift towards a weaker low with an adjustment to the east with the track and yet we not only do not see that but have actually seen an adjustment slightly to the west. Now either the Euro is hell bent on that track irregardless of the low or possibly we are seeing a skewing of the means with the deeper lows to the west. If we continue to see the shift to the weaker solution I would not be surprised whatsoever if we also see a shift east with the track over the next few runs. Now would it show a washed out solution running up the coast like both the 06Z GFS and NAM show? Probably not but I think a track over head is not out of the question.

 

Something else I noticed with all the runs over the last few days. Though there are quite a few exceptions there are enough solutions with the different models to suggest there is a fairly direct correlation between the storm and the kicker following on its heels. Overall the models generally suggest that just minor variations on the kicker is having fairly significant changes to the storm. The stronger and quicker solutions are producing a more easterly track and washed out low. Just something to keep an eye on.

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I just want to get enough then keep temps down enough to hold snowcover through to the torch coming later next week. Gfs might do it. What's wrong with me that I care about having frozen crystallized water on my lawn so much???

I've wondered this about myself my entire life. For as far back as I can remember watching snow melt and reveal a bare and muddy ground is depressing... Rationally it makes no sense what so ever, but as I have gotten older I found that old quote applies to snow as well, "Tis better to have snowed and melted than to have never snowed at all".

 

I'm sure there are enough people on the board that feel the same way that we could probably start some sort of "Snowcovers Anonymous Group" or something! :)

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The eps is worse because it lost that cluster of solutions to our east. 12z had 18 by my count. 0z only 5. 90% now agree on a track to our west. Yes they are weaker also which may help get more of a front end event, and the op did trend that way but it won't improve the ground truth when the storm is over.

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Glancing over the Euro individual ensemble members and there has been a very noticeable shift over the last 2 days of runs with the low moving through the region. 2 days ago we were looking at solutions where roughly 90% (just by eyeballing not counting) of the members showed a deeper low (999 mb or less). Each run since has shown less and less members with this solution to where we are now looking at only roughly 30% (again by eyeballing) with the deeper low. And last nights ensembles was a fairly significant shift from the 12Z which had roughly a 50/50 split between 999mb- and 1000mb+ lows. Also these deeper lows are not as wound up as what we were initially seeing just 2 days ago.

Now one would think that the means would reflect this shift towards a weaker low with an adjustment to the east with the track and yet we not only do not see that but have actually seen an adjustment slightly to the west. Now either the Euro is hell bent on that track irregardless of the low or possibly we are seeing a skewing of the means with the deeper lows to the west. If we continue to see the shift to the weaker solution I would not be surprised whatsoever if we also see a shift east with the track over the next few runs. Now would it show a washed out solution running up the coast like both the 06Z GFS and NAM show? Probably not but I think a track over head is not out of the question.

Something else I noticed with all the runs over the last few days. Though there are quite a few exceptions there are enough solutions with the different models to suggest there is a fairly direct correlation between the storm and the kicker following on its heels. Overall the models generally suggest that just minor variations on the kicker is having fairly significant changes to the storm. The stronger and quicker solutions are producing a more easterly track and washed out low. Just something to keep an eye on.

Do the 2 models handle weaker storms the same way all the time? And if so, why is there so much confidence or in this case resignation that the EURO is right about its more western track, since the EURO is also showing a weaker system like the GFS?

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I've wondered this about myself my entire life. For as far back as I can remember watching snow melt and reveal a bare and muddy ground is depressing... Rationally it makes no sense what so ever, but as I have gotten older I found that old quote applies to snow as well, "Tis better to have snowed and melted than to have never snowed at all".

 

I'm sure there are enough people on the board that feel the same way that we could probably start some sort of "Snowcovers Anonymous Group" or something! :)

Be hard for it to be anonymous since "you people" are so vocal about your need to see crusty or slushy snow everywhere. lol

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Do the 2 models handle weaker storms the same way all the time? And if so, why is there so much confidence or in this case resignation that the EURO is right about its more western track, since the EURO is also showing a weaker system like the GFS?

Don't think it is a case of which model handles weaker lows better I think it is more a case that the Euro is a better model then the GFS and CMC though this winter it has had some rough patches. So when you see the Euro at odds with the GFS and/or CMC you tend to lean towards the Euro. But in this case when I see the GFS, as well as other models, tend towards a weaker low over the last few days (there have been some hiccups) and now see the Euro moving from a wound up low to a weaker solution I would have to start leaning toward the weaker solution. As far as what that means in track is a good question. I think the GFS is too progressive and yet I think the Euro being lock into the far westerly track irregardless of the strength of the low is out to lunch as well. Therefore the solution lies somewhere in between and it is just a question of where. I am sort of leaning towards the eastern cluster on the Euro ensembles that would bring the low track just west of DC.

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not that it affects our weather necessarily but the cmc has been locked into the weak low scenario for several days and the euro is only now catching on to that. euro has raised the pressure of the low 25 mbs in last three runs i believe. hardly a rock. as far as track i guess u could say euro has been consistent.

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So have you all finally realized you are tracking a rain storm?

I am definitely confident we are tracking an H2O storm.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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So have you all finally realized you are tracking a rain storm?

I feel like everyone on here is being realistic. We know this isn't going to be a great event but at the same time every price of guidance gives us some snow to start. Is that 1" or 5" before the rain is really all were looking at but even the euro is 1-3 across the area. Para euro is better btw. 3-5 across the area befire the flip.

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Don't think it is a case of which model handles weaker lows better I think it is more a case that the Euro is a better model then the GFS and CMC though this winter it has had some rough patches. So when you see the Euro at odds with the GFS and/or CMC you tend to lean towards the Euro. But in this case when I see the GFS, as well as other models, tend towards a weaker low over the last few days (there have been some hiccups) and now see the Euro moving from a wound up low to a weaker solution I would have to start leaning toward the weaker solution. As far as what that means in track is a good question. I think the GFS is too progressive and yet I think the Euro being lock into the far westerly track irregardless of the strength of the low is out to lunch as well. Therefore the solution lies somewhere in between and it is just a question of where. I am sort of leaning towards the eastern cluster on the Euro ensembles that would bring the low track just west of DC.

It had some rough patches last year as well. People tend to have selective memory. I do that myself.

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?????????? This doesn't help anyone trying to get a quick rundown by reading the thread. But I knew nothing good happened overnight when I saw only 1 new page added. When I get up and there are 10 new pages I know it will be good.

Yeah, but posts like that are always good for a chuckle.

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Para euro is pretty good with the front running snow. 2" well east of 95, 3" along 95, and 6" in N fdk county.

Low is weaker and tracks right up central VA and basically overhead. Still plenty of rain though.

This will be a good test of the para's higher resolution at short range.

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Para euro is pretty good with the front running snow. 2" well east of 95, 3" along 95, and 6" in N fdk county.

Low is weaker and tracks right up central VA and basically overhead. Still plenty of rain though.

This will be a good test of the para's higher resolution at short range.

Haven't really delved to deeply into the para except for quick glances at the surface. How has it been generally holding up compared to the reg euro?

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We need to change the title to WTF2 storm lol. Im bored and was just reading last years 2/22 WTF storm thread and it sounds just like this one. Expecting 1-3 then rain and I believe we got 8" in  Leesburg. Anyways, carry on.....

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Haven't really delved to deeply into the para except for quick glances at the surface. How has it been generally holding up compared to the reg euro?

I'm not sure yet but it seems to do better with precip at short range. 0z is very similar to the op through hr72 but is juicier with the lead stuff. After that it's slightly east, weaker, and faster than the op.

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Para euro is pretty good with the front running snow. 2" well east of 95, 3" along 95, and 6" in N fdk county.

Low is weaker and tracks right up central VA and basically overhead. Still plenty of rain though.

This will be a good test of the para's higher resolution at short range.

 

Sign me up for 3 inches the para is giving us. Will go well with the half inch I have on the ground right now. Any snow on Monday is good snow imo.

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Looking at the para Euro actually suggests that there could be a fairly significant icing event carroll county and especially west.

Ice is definitely possible. Most guidance other than the Euro keeps max temps for the event in the mid 30's and give northern md southern pa a 6 hr or longer period of zr. Probably not much of a concern for the metros but for us it could be a much different story. 

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Freezing fog/rime or GTFO. This could be the rare storm around here where the surfaces/roads stay below freezing well after the air temp goes over. Not for the metro probably but could be interesting to the north and west.

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GFS isn't terrible up here, even during the day on Tuesday temps are 33-35 with 0 850 right overhead. Could be a messy mix versus all rain

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