CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 BTV WRF has a mini cold tuck after wave 1 goes by. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Obliterated? Probably not completely. But I'm expecting at least grass showing in the south facing areas where the snow has been sublimated/melted by the February sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Keeps zr in here a little longer BTV WRF has a mini cold tuck after wave 1 goes by. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Probably not completely. But I'm expecting at least grass showing in the south facing areas where the snow has been sublimated/melted by the February sun angle. This might hurt..Especially my area which furnaces on SSE winds.. But at least we can take some trees down/power issues and take some solace Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 31m 31 minutes ago Still a threat for damaging wind on Tuesday with storm cutting to our west. Rapid intensification supports strong isallobaric component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That solution sort of makes sense to me. If there is any semblance of a weak wave and that passes by, there will be NE drainage. Torch inevitable, but might make for a nasty Tuesday morning commute, inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That solution sort of makes sense to me. If there is any semblance of a weak wave and that passes by, there will be NE drainage. Torch inevitable, but might make for a nasty Tuesday morning commute, inland. Yeah and that would be just the model to pick up on those little details. It makes sense to me too that there might be some drainage from Maine into Mass following that first little wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 BTV WRF also keeps north central MA wedged in the 30s through the end of the run (7 pm Tue) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 BTV WRF also keeps north central MA wedged in the 30s through the end of the run (7 pm Tue) Yeah. Take it fwiw now....but something to watch for central areas of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Can see it now. 52 here and 31 with zr for Will ,Tip, Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Valley might be able to pick up .25 of zr by the looks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yeah. Take it fwiw now....but something to watch for central areas of MA. The warmth seems to flood in faster than progged Just anecdotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nam is cold while near .5 falls in my hood .3 white .25 ice then dry warm before strong frontal passage winds and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 We snow We ice We rain We wind We damage We refeeeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The warmth seems to flood in faster than progged Just anecdotal. I find the exact opposite seems to happen in N ORH county. Models often try and warm up the sfc faster than what actually occurs. The mid-levels are freuqnetly a different story. This one will be an easy test because all model guidance (save for that one 4km run) has all of ORH county above 40F by 12z Tuesday morning. So we'll have to see this time if that is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Valley might be able to pick up .25 of zr by the looks of it 4km NAM is probably pretty close to reality here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4km NAM is probably pretty close to reality here.This is one of those desks where Simsbury Rots at 32 until close to fropa and keeps most of their pack, while mine gone by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This is one of those desks where Simsbury Rots at 32 until close to fropa and keeps most of their pack, while mine gone by noon lol probably - though even there they'll mix out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 We snow We ice We rain We wind We damage We refeeeze We weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I find the exact opposite seems to happen in N ORH county. Models often try and warm up the sfc faster than what actually occurs. The mid-levels are freuqnetly a different story. This one will be an easy test because all model guidance (save for that one 4km run) has all of ORH county above 40F by 12z Tuesday morning. So we'll have to see this time if that is accurate. Ha - yeah no sh - talk to us when in early April we're waiting on a warm boundary to get N of the Pike for any reason at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ha - yeah no sh - talk to us when in early April we're waiting on a warm boundary to get N of the Pike for any reason at all! I'm talking winter events In April when you want the warmth it never shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I tend to think the srfc warmth is always modeled to come in too fast compared to actuality...especially up in the far interior where hubby is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm talking winter events In April when you want the warmth it never shows I understood where you were coming from... But warmth tends to retard at our location at all times, winter and summer, for a number of reasons topographical and circumstantial with regard to the ocean and so forth - neither of which the models resolve very well as they interfere at very low levels. That said, this is a unique situation - however. As we discussed earlier, an analog is late January 1994, with 50 F 12 hour turn around because of quintessentially perfect synoptics to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4km NAM is probably pretty close to reality here. Hippy for the win on that depiction. At least this will help the drought. 0.4/-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This is a professional forum, not a place for this gobblygook.He knows, he already said you made him leave the forum.Are we going to get any t storms in the warm sector? Our radar depiction looks like what the southeast usually gets for a benchmark storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just took a peak at the 18z Btv Wrf nice cold tuck You can see the boundary actually presses Se between 1 and 4 am tues am and is hung up over the pike region of NE mass away from Ocean. Nashua should see some nice snow to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NOHRSC says my pack is history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Interesting tool Ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Im ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Interesting tool Ginxall the Cocorahs sites are analysed and modeled,often why I laugh when Kev melts to Canada, there is a lot of info they showhttp://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?ey=2016&em=2&ed=17&units=0&station=CT-WN-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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