Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam, we thump then ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 LOL I'll take the 18Z NAM. It gives me like 15" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 LOL I'll take the 18Z NAM. It gives me like 15" of snow nice run for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ensembles including SREF as well as the globals are roughly split in two camps. 1) Weaker wave that slides NE through SNE and wound up, strong low that tracks NNE through CNY into NNE. There are some in-between solutions, but overall there are two camps with a lot of spread. I don't think we'll really have a good feel with this until sometime tomorrow. It has obvious implications for CNE and NNE for Mon. night/Tue. but also for any potential followup wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam, we thump then ice That run verifying would lead to a nice glacier here even with it turning to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ensembles including SREF as well as the globals are roughly split in two camps. 1) Weaker wave that slides NE through SNE and wound up, strong low that tracks NNE through CNY into NNE. There are some in-between solutions, but overall there are two camps with a lot of spread. I don't think we'll really have a good feel with this until sometime tomorrow. It has obvious implications for CNE and NNE for Mon. night/Tue. but also for any potential followup wave. No mattter how you slice it, you're in a much better position than any SNE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 LOL I'll take the 18Z NAM. It gives me like 15" of snow Haha this event is pretty funny... some models have rain here and snow to the west, others have us on the northern fringe of the snow. Quite the spread. My bet though is on all the globals with a track through eastern NY, maybe into VT or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 4k nam has a little thump for most N of Ct border. Maybe 2-4 deal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would hit the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would hit the Namnice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam is good for 2-4 for CT north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would hit the Nam I might even take two hits. 8" front ender here. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There is going to be one camp that's gong to shat the bed on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There is going to be one camp that's gong to shat the bed on TuesdayHmmmmmmm, I wonder which camp is most likely to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hmmmmmmm, I wonder which camp is most likely to do that? Hint, Hint, It's running now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS will be west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Congrats Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS will be west. Cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hint, Hint, It's running now. LolThe GFS vs Euro is just like the Ryder Cup. The Americans get thumped time and time again. On the rare occasion the GFS pulls a coup, everyone is stunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro is back to its old self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 One full year without a 2" snowstorm. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Congrats Euro GFS got schooled...pwned. Gives us 3-6" of snow followed by about 2" of rain and then another 2-5" backside. Total of 3.0" QPF at MVL . Following the thermal profiles, the snow map isn't too bad but its combining both front end and back end snows....and there's 2" of rain in-between at MVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 One full year without a 2" snowstorm. Wow. That's absolutely incredible for ALB, averaging 62" a year and can't get a 2"+ snowstorm in an entire 365 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's weird to have a low track north northeast from Western CT and have temps so torched in the ALB area to west of the track and upper levels torched all the way into central NY with ice. Normally you get a low in that position and I would think he might be pounding heavy wet snow out here near Schoharie. It still looked do-able to me until I saw the thermal profile. One full year without a 2" snowstorm. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It didn't go as far west as the Euro, Your getting a major dump of snow there on the GFS. Of course it go further west on subsequent runs. That's absolutely incredible for ALB, averaging 62" a year and can't get a 2"+ snowstorm in an entire 365 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That run is fascinating from the razor thin line of big snow vs. more "meh". This would be enough to send Eyewall off the Champlain Bridge between NY and VT... if BTV is heavy rain and PBG on the NY shore of the Lake is isothermal snow bomb. Such a tight gradient...here's 925mb temps at the peak of the warmth...that NE flow upsloping into the northeast Adirondack foothills causing dynamic cooling isothermal snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It didn't go as far west as the Euro, Your getting a major dump of snow there on the GFS. Of course it go further west on subsequent runs. No major dump here on the GFS...front end snow and back end snow sandwiched between 2" of rain. It is very close though...major dump on the NY side of the Champlain Valley and westward. Edit: Actually this year, 3-6" before heavy rain would be a major dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I guess you were too young to recall the atrocious winter of 88-89 in ALB. with 18" total. I hoped not to go through that again. That's absolutely incredible for ALB, averaging 62" a year and can't get a 2"+ snowstorm in an entire 365 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's weird to have a low track north northeast from Western CT and have temps so torched in the ALB area to west of the track and upper levels torched all the way into central NY with ice. Normally you get a low in that position and I would think he might be pounding heavy wet snow out here near Schoharie. It still looked do-able to me until I saw the thermal profile. Yeah we finally get a low to track far enough west where we're in the game and of course there's nothing to keep the cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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