BostonWX Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think we might get a nice little thump in bos before the flip, maybe 2 to 3 inches? Most media outlets seem to be going a coating . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This is obviously not the make up storm we were looking for up here. What POS event. If the low were 100 miles farther east we would have cashed in up here. It is going to take a KU before time is up to make this winter anything but an epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Pretty awesome temperature recovery underway... Granted, a goodly amount of my -14 was boot-legged off radiational cooling, but that -14 was as recent at 6:50 this morning. As of 10:50 it's up to +18 ... nice 32 F jump... It'll be interesting to see how far N the warmth penetrates before we clear out on the backside SW CAA flow tomorrow night. The synoptics as purported by the bevy of different models has been locked and unwavering on an unabated warm intrusion - the troposphere just flips over. The giant high slips SE into the Atlantic and the deep layer between 1300 meters and the 500 mb level just goes S unilaterally. Between the sfc and 1300 up there's the usual BL/friction resistance but that will prove truly futile against the majesty of the ensuing deep layer fire-hose. This is evidenced ... the warm advection terms are actually week here. The thickness isopleths are really moving N usually fast relative to these typical starting thickness/temperature profiles; indicative of an air mass that just up and moves out more than is being displaced by warm air/eroding mechanics. It's fascinating Meteorology for those that hobby for the sake of the science - Not saying much for anyone else ... oops. Better luck next time. Wouldn't it be awesome for a positive bust now tho? seriously - the best positive busts should really come completely out of nowhere. muah hahahaha. ...don't count on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This is obviously not the make up storm we were looking for up here. What POS event. If the low were 100 miles farther east we would have cashed in up here. It is going to take a KU before time is up to make this winter anything but an epic fail. It is actually ... but I think the narrow corridoring of output types in this is also symptomatic of mechanics encountering 0 fight after the wave turns the corner down in the lower/SE OV region.. It's fascinating to lose all the baroclinic gradient at about the exact same rate as the system's approach ... because if this thing were 12 hours sooner, we'd be talking a whoooole different story line with this thing, from N to S everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 What a shame that it's going to rain and be 50F. The inlets of Boston Harbor are beginning to freeze today. Thin ice covering pleasure bay/carson beach now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Euro, EPS is what I will go with.You? Everything but that. Even Euro gives some folks 1-2 on Monday Use it at your own risk..but this reeks of a euro collapse or slow move to the less amped models Some great calls throughout the thread by DIT... completely tossing the EURO and going with "everything but that". Its always fun to latch onto a GFS solution that shows snow while bashing the GFS all winter. Ginxy's right... save a horse and ride the EURO. Rochester is getting a huge snowstorm today. Well modeled by the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Some great calls throughout the thread by DIT... completely tossing the EURO and going with "everything but that". Its always fun to latch onto a GFS solution that shows snow while bashing the GFS all winter. Ginxy's right... save a horse and ride the EURO. Rochester is getting a huge snowstorm today. Well modeled by the EURO. It is easy to go with the Euro when it has multi-model support sans the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It is easy to go with the Euro when it has multi-model support sans the GFS. Yeah the UKMET was with it pretty much the whole time. GFS/NAM/GGEM pretty much all vomited on themselves 3 days out. Even without other support, when the Euro is *that* steadfast every single run with a given solution its hard to bet against it...especially when the GFS is going between strong low and weak POS (it even had runs that gave mostly snow or all frozen to like ORH). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Not bad by the Ukie either on this storm...though it was too wound up (like it often had a big bomb vs a more elongated low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah the UKMET was with it pretty much the whole time. GFS/NAM/GGEM pretty much all vomited on themselves 3 days out. Even without other support, when the Euro is *that* steadfast every single run with a given solution its hard to bet against it...especially when the GFS is going between strong low and weak POS (it even had runs that gave mostly snow or all frozen to like ORH). The Ukmet/JMA OP combo in its camp around day 4 was all I needed to see. But...the only time I wouldn't second guess the Euro in the face of an opposing model consensus is when it is insistent in the tropics. It rules the roost when it comes to warm core cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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