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peteradiator

Feb 15th-17th. Just believe it or leave it.

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It will be a front ender to rain which amounts to crap here in the Champlain Valley. Just another knife in the back from this winter LOL.

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In all seriousness the final outcome of this thing within a 500 mile goalpost is unknown. Models aren't really locked in on one solution yet, and neither a snow to ice for SNE solution nor a snowpack erasing torch cutter for NNE could be completely ruled out.

Taking the average of the current modeling would bring you between the HRV and the CRV, but if one of these pieces is not being sampled properly and the timing is different between the streams, then we would likely see the models move towards a different solution in concert as we get closer.

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I personally favor a track over or just west of NYC, as that is where the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, 0z CMC and 0z Ukmet all track the low as of this morning. But I wouldn't call it above average confidence.

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Nothing really to disect anymore. Crappy setup,crappy track. Shame we waste the cold this weekend. Could hang on for deep interior so hopefully north ski resorts can salvage something, anything.

As Isotherm has pointed out, models tend to underdo WAA. One thing to watch is that we should see models start showing snow breaking out earlier than they currently do.

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Up the HV or CC, either way I will be drawing the shades sometime after the peak cold event happens in the next few days.  Quite possibly to not open them until Spring. 

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I find it hard to imagine this system succeeds in scraping all the cold out NNE's valleys.

Even if it tracks over NYC.

Couple years back, (not sure exactly) I remember we had about 10 of these mid Atlantic coast born storms that seemed to always track towards the Hudson valley/western vt. Early forecasts seemed to always call for snow to rain wash out. Once the storm began, forecasters quickly adjusted their forcast hence the slug of heavy snow that was hammering our area. We were even more lucky on a few of those storms to get 8-12" of snow then remain in the dry slot for the rest of the storm. no rain!

It seems this artic blast is if anything forecast to be colder. perhaps record breaking.  

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I find it hard to imagine this system succeeds in scraping all the cold out NNE's valleys.

Even if it tracks over NYC.

Couple years back, (not sure exactly) I remember we had about 10 of these mid Atlantic coast born storms that seemed to always track towards the Hudson valley/western vt. Early forecasts seemed to always call for snow to rain wash out. Once the storm began, forecasters quickly adjusted their forcast hence the slug of heavy snow that was hammering our area. We were even more lucky on a few of those storms to get 8-12" of snow then remain in the dry slot for the rest of the storm. no rain!

It seems this artic blast is if anything forecast to be colder. perhaps record breaking.  

That event probably didn't have a 1050 mb high trying to act as our 50/50 low.

This synoptic layout would end up raining on Pluto.

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'Twas only a matter of time before the "i find it hard to imagine this airmass budges" posts sprang up.

Similar denial phenomenon occurs at the onset of the grieving process upon learning that a love one has been terminally diagnosed....."with all of the medical technology at out disposal, there must be something that can be done"....but 'alas, as young and virile as this artic air mass is, that mass of high pressure over the N Atlantic is terminal.

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I find it hard to imagine this system succeeds in scraping all the cold out NNE's valleys.

Even if it tracks over NYC.

 

 

If the gfs-progged winds at 850 verify (Cat 2 speeds from the S or SSE) and we get the +RA, it will scrape.

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Similar denial phenomenon occurs at the onset of the grieving process upon learning that a love one has been terminally diagnosed....."with all of the medical technology at out disposal, there must be something that can be done"....but 'alas, as young and virile as this artic air mass is, that mass of high pressure over the N Atlantic is terminal.

 

The thing the NAM shows that the GFS, for instance, doesn't is much more robust WAA qpf out in front of the system. I'd still bet on everyone seeing at least some snow from this before a flip, if it weren't for the fact that I don't gamble.

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The thing the NAM shows that the GFS, for instance, doesn't is much more robust WAA qpf out in front of the system. I'd still bet on everyone seeing at least some snow from this before a flip, if it weren't for the fact that I don't gamble.

Sounds like 6-12 before rain

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It is too bad the NAM doesn't have much of a clue at 84h...that would be a much more wintry track for next week...probably would still mix or flip...but it wouldn't torch (or if it did, it would be brief) and there would be good snow before that. Probably a net-gainer.

 

But you can already see compared to 06z that it's getting sharper with the trough...probably a couple more cycles and it will start to look more like global models.

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It is too bad the NAM doesn't have much of a clue at 84h...that would be a much more wintry track for next week...probably would still mix or flip...but it wouldn't torch (or if it did, it would be brief) and there would be good snow before that. Probably a net-gainer.

 

But you can already see compared to 06z that it's getting sharper with the trough...probably a couple more cycles and it will start to look more like global models.

 

Yep. Although it has also been strengthening the high, not sure if that's a direct result of the track adjustment.

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for any takers..

lets imagine a professor of meteorology presents a mock forecast,( such as the one about to impose its warmth and rain on us)

He then explains that the forecasted event completely did not behave as science suggested and that a 40/70 benchmark storm occurred.

He asks his students for a valid scientific explanation, (regardless of the probabilities) of what could have occurred to the n. Atlantic terminal high, or what could have caused the system to change course.

20 minutes till pencil's down

 

A storm was forecasted to undergo cyclogenesis in the southern US and ride up the coast bringing heavy snowfall to Western NY State and rains to NYC and New England. This storm occurred as modeled. However, a follow-up wave that was originally modeled to be a weak sheared out low pressure system was stronger and dug deeper into the Eastern CONUS than anticipated, and 36 hours after the first storm it rode up the coast and induced cyclogenesis off the southeast coast of New England near 40N latitude 70W longitude, bringing heavy snows to Connecticut, Rhode Island, and parts of Massachusetts, and overcast conditions to locations north of the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border.

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You aren't going to get that large of a correction relative to large scale synoptic features within 5 days of lead time.

 

For his location, I don't think I agree with that. I also wouldn't rule out a benchmark storm quite yet.

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You aren't going to get that large of a correction relative to large scale synoptic features within 5 days of lead time.

 

 

Unlikely, but it's possible.

 

If this shifted like 100-150 miles east, I don't think it would be shocking at this lead time at all. That said, I completely agree that the favored position at this time is west. There's more room for west vs east...of the goal posts in this storm, like 80+% of the area is a rainer for us.

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The year as a whole is scoring pretty close to an F grade for winter enthusiasts.  It needs a pretty good score on the final to save it. 

 

I've never seen so many carefully crafted synoptic scenarios play out this way, so often, in one winter. But then again ... I was thinking precisely the opposite last February 20th 2015, too.   Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the "bare" gets you ;)

 

And so be it if that must be the case ... and somehow in some quirky way this is all by nature's design, to climatologically atone for last years absurd 120", 5-week span.  I opined and mused on a couple of occasions back in October ...when in any given post made the impertinent jest of this not being a good snow year aroused a most unsavory din ... , that if we had 0 inches of snow this year over eastern Massachusetts, that would make the 2-year average solidly above normal!   

 

I don't recall anyone responding, which is typical for a bastion of people sharing in the same winter-opiate.  Understood. 

 

But the muse in the numbers is still clad.   That being said ... obviously we are not getting 0 inches this year.  The point, however, has merit that we should probably be so lucky - I know that doesn't offer much commiseration but it is probably the best possible way to look at matters that may appease the unrelenting assault on psychology for this miserable ...seemingly deliberate string of nearly perfectly wrong events. 

 

And now ...?   This could very well be the most extreme version of frigid-freeze to rain scenario I've ever seen.  I've been a sentient Meteorologist and edjucated/ functional for the better part of 30 years at this point and I don't recall such an intense 2 day whiplash.  -10 F northerly blood clotting cold, to 55 F subtropical wind swept rain  (and probable thunder) is fascinating pure Meteorological phenomenon in its self; sans anyone really interested experiencing that play out. 

 

I've officially checked out on this failed winter, but will always be interested should something fantastic come along.  I don't believe in "bowling season" per se - knowing full-well we've had a few memorable hall-of-fame inductees.  They just don't come often enough to warrant devotion; but will keep it in the back of one's mind that it does happen once every so many fleeting years. But I'm post February 10th and can feel the bright sun warming in spite of the winter trying to cheat its way to a passing grade by inserting obnoxious wasted cold.  Just the photo-electric affect alone on the ocular brain is reminding me of crispy, towering cumulus on humid afternoons ... taking long bike rides ... camping and the beach. 

 

Yet ... yes ... it is true that the PNA is rising hugely beyond this 7 day period.  And that the MJO wave strengthens through 7 into 8.   The +PNA is actually correlated well with the ENSO state; placing an MJO wave over top on the 7-1/2 regions of the wave space is a constructive wave interference, and that should further support western heights surging/bulging ... So much so, in fact, that we see a brief interval of -EPO out there in time at CDC... That's actually the PNA being so positive that it lops over some of it's height field into the EPO domain space, and that falsely (for lack of better word..) signals the EPO as briefly negative. Nevertheless, this current cold spike we are going through and about to get really nasty with for 24 hours ... it was preceded by the a similar PNA spike that also kissed the EPO and motivated it to go down for just a moment.  

 

By the time all that pays dividends .. we are every day steepening the slope out.  It is a critical time frame, Feb 20 through March 10 ... but I intuit that last 5 days of the month and firsts week of March as being the best time to cash-in off these Pac indicators.  Notwithstanding ... strengthening insolation off-setting, can we cold load into Canada prior to the equinox - obviously yes. 

 

But it is also undeniable that spring is evidencing its self in the southern tier, among the various guidance'.  In fact, circa D9, we see that the deepest continental cold (that being solidly beneath -10 C at 850 mb) has retreated well N, and +10 C is enveloping quite a large area of the CONUS.  That's the first appeal of that I've seen since last autumn at some point.   

 

I tell ya, if that PNA/MJO works out, it would set up some big time baroclinic action. 

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