mreaves Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yea, I've been with you on the Bourn bridge idea. Me, PF, JSpin, klw, ono, hitman, backedgeapproaching and the rest of the VT crew highly endorse you and the Rev's thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It becomes an intense low, just more at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It becomes an intense low, just more at our latitude. I like that trend....keep it diffuse until the last possible moment. Watch, 2016 can fu&* up a bomb like no other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GFS got much better out this way, would really like to see the rest of the suite nudge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yea, I've been with you on the Bourn bridge idea.#climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEM is well east too. Actually a pretty nice thump for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 #climo ....And at least if we meet there, and the low should still opt for VT, we can just plunge into Cape Cod, MA, US Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Canadian is a DC area crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Opining aside ... it really comes down to wave-space geometry, which in its self is a question of certain complexity because that can be shrunk or stretched based upon the wind velocities circuitous about the ridges and trough. Faster over all means longer wave lengths (usually...there are extreme scenarios where that's not the case); contrasting, when the gradients weaken as we head toward warm seasons, the wave-lengths shrink. That's the basic gist. Here, that trough in the east ...it really has two distinct waves sort of vying for proxy inside the totality of the trough translation. You know ... not too dissimilar to the last series of events that brough the big bomb off the SE coast, and nudged it too far E to really more profoundly impact our area. It's just that in the case with the last, the wave spacing was spread out over a somewhat larger area.. but the concept/interaction of streams is still the same; and really, it's been the tenor of the entire winter - waves inharmonious in their interactions (deconstructive). In any case, if you take the two in situ waves in that trough, and average their longitude, that's probably a good measure for where the actual long-wave trough axis is situation. Using the last several runs of the GFS, that appears to be right around 80 W. That's important because, the ridge in the west is situated near the longitude of Idaho while the trough in the east reaches it's greatest amplitude - therein begs the question for the astute synoptician: 'is that an acceptable, or correctable wave spacing' The latter part of that question is definitely going be a complicated one because as said, ...the wind velocities everywhere are just screamin'. Jesus. It's a stretchy season. Probably related to the multi-decadal signal for the north Pacific to be predominantly AA in phase, while a broiling warm ENSO bubbles away down south ... i.e., unusually high gradients in the means. So I don't know... could go either way. The winds could be over-assessed all if the wave comes off the Pac somewhat less in strength ... it would feed back in a more west track ironically, because that ridge in the west a bit too far west for ideal theoretical wave spacing. It's almost like because we have a lack of antecedent lower tropospheric blocking (as Will and Scott have hammered correctly all week) you want the wave wind velocities et al to be stronger, such that it stretches the flow more and parlays to a track more needle threading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEM is well east too. Actually a pretty nice thump for SNE #2-5watchwait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEM looks like a BOS track...pretty decent snow on the front end and obviously a really nice storm for places like VT and N NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 S+ for JI and R+ for Ray. He'll love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So yesterday some piece of data came in that pushed everything west. Today it looks like something is pushing everything east. They do seem to be moving in unison though not at the the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I want this whole system to get the f out of the way for the next one to miller B. But what I want doesn't matter :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nice front end thump on the GGEM up in NNE, Meanwhile PF enjoying some currier & Ives snow on the NW edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 S+ for JI and R+ for Ray. He'll love that. I'm resigned to not getting much from it. May as well pound mid atl verification into the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Canadian is a DC area crushing. Huh, that far south - interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That's so close on the GFS....huge bomb but would rain a little in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Getting back to those GFS maps I saved For PF, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That's so close on the GFS....huge bomb but would rain a little in the middle. You'll end up getting smoked imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That's so close on the GFS....huge bomb but would rain a little in the middle.Gore and Whiteface crushed that would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nice front end thump on the GGEM up in NNE, Meanwhile PF enjoying some currier & Ives snow on the NW edge At this point just don't rain. Would love snow but do know it's not our season...just don't pour for 18 hours like the ECMWF last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Waiting for Eyewall to come in and tell us the 100 ways this won't happen in VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Jbenedeet ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 At this point just don't rain. Would love snow but do know it's not our season...just don't pour for 18 hours like the ECMWF last night. 12z GFS looked good up there for you guys, You're probably in the best position for tues as it stands right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Jbenedeet ftw Ah, the classic >100 hours out "win" call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Getting back to those GFS maps I saved For PF, congrats Haha I have some EPS runs saved from January showing all of NNE getting like 30" each run all the time. The mean maps have been horrible for snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 John, really interesting post....so this may be unusual in the sense that in order to get the low east, we may want to hope a STRONGER sw emerg onto the western shores, because the associated higher jet velocities would ultimately help shunt this east. Awesome post....never would have thought of that. The seasonal trend may work in our favor for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That kicker on its heels is causing this to shift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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