dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The other thing with tues is its not a prolonged torch either, Once the system moves thru temps will fall back off sharply for a few days thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The other thing with tues is its not a prolonged torch either, Once the system moves thru temps will fall back off sharply for a few days thereafterUntil the next rainer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Another poster uses "us" and "we" to describe outcomes for one specific spot in CT, so probably ok. lol that's so true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Until the next rainer lol Meh, That's further out and looks northern stream driven and could end up further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Eh, I would not worry to much at what the GGEM shows, Come verification time it won't be around That's true but you know what I mean...if it stays more of an overrunning frontal wave, the snow zone will be real small. If it can mature to a nice cyclone with developed WCB and CCB, it will pump more moisture into the cold side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hmmm, 5 days out on the GEM... Good enough, 1.5" QPF here, wake me when it's game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Meh, That's further out and looks northern stream driven and could end up further southI think so too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That's true but you know what I mean...if it stays more of an overrunning frontal wave, the snow zone will be real small. If it can mature to a nice cyclone with developed WCB and CCB, it will pump more moisture into the cold side of the storm. That comes with some good and bad as well as a stronger low would favor a more westward track, Whatever the outcome ends up being, Its still going to involve some rain for many and all rain for some others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That looks like a real weenie map. 12" on the GFS to the NH border?talk to Mr Kuchera Wonder what Bufkit has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 talk to Mr Kuchera Wonder what Bufkit hasBufkit smokes BTV on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I actually did read it as I do most of your posts, but it really doesn't belong in this thread probably right ... i started out more serious in that diatribe but ended up digressing - d'oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Bufkit smokes BTV on the GFS There a little gun shy up there but i think there in a great seat for this next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I hope to continue my atrocious record of forecasting with this one. I said cutter and meant it. Been a nice trend east since at least looking at the GFS. 12z run seems to be the first to track the low to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Bufkit smokes BTV on the GFS Yeah that's fine, that map looked very generous on the eastern side was all. All fodder anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 John, really interesting post....so this may be unusual in the sense that in order to get the low east, we may want to hope a STRONGER sw emerg onto the western shores, because the associated higher jet velocities would ultimately help shunt this east. Awesome post....never would have thought of that. The seasonal trend may work in our favor for once. Particular to this synoptic period of time, right - Keep in mind, that all pertains to "needle thread" necessities ... though there are also other ways to thread needles, in this scenario, the outline stands. If there were more lower tropospheric blocking to the N ... that would change the landscape of requirements, too. Obviously you'd have more bandwidth of tracks to play around with. Having said that, there is in fact a subtle more lower tropospheric blocking to our N on this 12z GFS run. Compare the 00z low level barometric pressure layout to the 12z version, between 84 and 72 hours respectively ...there is a subtle yet coherent delay on the 12z with retreating polar high, but an important one nonetheless. That would mean "that" much boundary layer inhibition over land, which feeds (also) back on forcing more seaward adjustments for those arguments too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah that's fine, that map looked very generous on the eastern side was all. All fodder anyway. Agreed. Some of those algorithms are just head scratchers. But it doesn't matter until we get closer anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Particular to this synoptic period of time, right - Keep in mind, that all pertains to "needle thread" necessities ... though there are also other ways to thread needles, in this scenario, the outline stands. If there were more lower tropospheric blocking to the N ... that would change the landscape of requirements, too. Obviously you'd have more bandwidth of tracks to play around with. Having said that, there is in fact a subtle more lower tropospheric blocking to our N on this 12z GFS run. Compare the 00z low level barometric pressure layout to the 12z version, between 84 and 72 hours respectively ...there is a subtle yet coherent delay on the 12z with retreating polar high, but an important one nonetheless. That would mean "that" much boundary layer inhibition over land, which feeds (also) back on forcing more seaward adjustments for those arguments too. Yes, I'm not sure if this still holds valid, but I do know that as of yesterday, there was a trend to "arch" that +pp pattern back to the west and south west to the north of Maine. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 There are a few reasons for this track. One being a nice lobe to our northeast. Not just the flow out in srn Canada. Jbenedet had a theory about he PNA dropping and AO rising. While these usually promote cutters, the AO can be such to help cause destructive interference too. But you really play with fire if you hope for that. yeah, agreed ... there are a few reasons any track of any storm would go east. for example, a standard Miller B storm is in fact an east displacement away from the best forcing, because the lower level CAD/inhibition is much less over sea, so the low redevelops east but then bides some amount of time while the better forcing catches up... etc etc... This is a Miller A capture scenario ... the track and wave amplitude is coming down from the WNW in a longitudinal biased trough/stretching, and the earlier spin up over the Gulf interface is then captured. It is critical that low level inhibition is correctly handled, because as I just pointed out, there are subtle yet coherent lags in the timing of the retreating high on this 12 z GFS run, and that could be a trend beginner ... But, as to the other point, -AO would probably be more correlated with constructive wave interferences, actually, because -AO is inherently "buckling" the flow and those tend to favor wave domination scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 yeah, agreed ... there are a few reasons any track of any storm would go east. for example, a standard Miller B storm is in fact an east displacement away from the best forcing, because the lower level CAD/inhibition is much less over sea, so the low redevelops east but then bides some amount of time while the better forcing catches up... etc etc... This is a Miller A capture scenario ... the track and wave amplitude is coming down from the WNW in a longitudinal biased trough/stretching, and the earlier spin up over the Gulf interface is then captured. It is critical that low level inhibition is correctly handled, because as I just pointed out, there are subtle yet coherent lags in the timing of the retreating high on this 12 z GFS run, and that could be a trend beginner ... But, as to the other point, -AO would probably be more correlated with constructive wave interferences, actually, because -AO is inherently "buckling" the flow and those tend to favor wave domination scenarios. Yep, lots of intricacies. Euro should be a bit better based on what I see, through hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 yeah, agreed ... there are a few reasons any track of any storm would go east. for example, a standard Miller B storm is in fact an east displacement away from the best forcing, because the lower level CAD/inhibition is much less over sea, so the low redevelops east but then bides some amount of time while the better forcing catches up... etc etc... This is a Miller A capture scenario ... the track and wave amplitude is coming down from the WNW in a longitudinal biased trough/stretching, and the earlier spin up over the Gulf interface is then captured. It is critical that low level inhibition is correctly handled, because as I just pointed out, there are subtle yet coherent lags in the timing of the retreating high on this 12 z GFS run, and that could be a trend beginner ... But, as to the other point, -AO would probably be more correlated with constructive wave interferences, actually, because -AO is inherently "buckling" the flow and those tend to favor wave domination scenarios. Oh, regarding the AO..I meant +AO as being destrtucive...especially if it causes fast westerly flow in srn canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That s/w coming out of Montana really is stronger and helping the flatten heights so that the srn one does not dig for oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I still think this solution will be west of the other 12z guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still may be ugly verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The master of meh pbping a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That s/w coming out of Montana really is stronger and helping the flatten heights so that the srn one does not dig for oil. Kev mentioned that...."kicker".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Of course this run will still be ugly...raise your cyber paw if you expected a weenie run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The master of meh pbping a rainstorm. Well SNE is probably screwed, but for parts of the area, it means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Kev mentioned that...."kicker".. Yeah he mentioned it, an hour after I mentioned it in the same thread. But who's keeping track anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Of course this run will still be ugly...raise your cyber paw if you expected a weenie run... Considering the Euro has been the most amped...it would be hard to get it to trend far enough east for something interesting in two runs, let alone one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 There a little gun shy up there but i think there in a great seat for this next one Bump this post in 4-5 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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