burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 the last sref mean has really sped up the timing on precip. it's basically showing a frontal passage and has the precip through my area by Monday evening. There's no low pressure center being generated on the mean maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Updated WPC Probabilities for Snow and Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 JB still likes Euro Parallel the most, says no changes to his thinking as of now... may have to work on the edges as we get closer, Tenn Valley to Mtns for most snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 One more post to show just how much things can change.... In the February 2015 storm. Northeast Georgia got clobbered with freezing rain. The upstate of SC was cold enough to stay mainly sleet with surface temps in the upper 20's. It was one heck of a CAD event. 42 hours before the event, this is what the ukmet showed. Would anyone guess that northeast Georgia gets hammered with freezing rain looking at that map? What about a strong CAD wedge? There's no high pressure progged on this ukmet map, lol. FYI, lots of other models where taking the surface low in a similar direction. (the ukie wasn't on an island with this solution). Wasn't that the ice storm were GSP kept lowering totals despite the fact rain was falling with temps near 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 ahem......NAM is rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wasn't that the ice storm were GSP kept lowering totals despite the fact rain was falling with temps near 30? They had the northern most upstate in a winter storm storm warning prior to the event starting. It wasn't until wetbulbs were being reached that they expanded the winter storm warning to the entire upstate. To be fair though, I don't think there was a single model that showed places like greenwood,sc and elberton, ga dropping below freezing the morning of the event. It wasn't until a few hours before the event started that surface obs indicated we would drop so far below freezing. The Hrr started to catch on a few hours before the event got cranking as well. I can tell you the morning of the event for my backyard, the "coldest" models had me wetbulbing down to 32 and then staying around 33 and rain throughout the evening. I actually wetbulbed down to 27.4 that evening and my temperature was 31.3 when the last batch of precip moved through late that night. In many ways this event is reminding me of that one. We are still a longs way off though, so things can ovbiously drastically change. That being said, if the GFS/NAM/CMC depictions are close to accurate, I think we'll wind up with much more ice than what those models are showing right now.(based largely off what happened last year, and in other CAD events.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 They had the northern most upstate in a winter storm storm warning prior to the event starting. It wasn't until wetbulbs were being reached that they expanded the winter storm warning to the entire upstate. To be fair though, I don't think there was a single model that showed places like greenwood,sc and elberton, ga dropping below freezing the morning of the event. It wasn't until a few hours before the event started that surface obs indicated we would drop so far below freezing. The Hrr started to catch on a few hours before the event got cranking as well. I can tell you the morning of the event for my backyard, the "coldest" models had me wetbulbing down to 32 and then staying around 33 and rain throughout the evening. I actually wetbulbed down to 27.4 that evening and my temperature was 31.3 when the last batch of precip moved through late that night. In many ways this event is reminding me of that one. We are still a longs way off though, so things can ovbiously drastically change. That being said, if the GFS/NAM/CMC depictions are close to accurate, I think we'll wind up with much more ice than what those models are showing right now.(based largely off what happened last year, and in other CAD events.) that's the storm about two weeks before the snowstorm? That was the storm as early as 72 hours out the Euro and it's ensemble mean had me getting a foot. I ended up with an inch of sleet and a couple hours of freezing rain before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Already snow falling in wnc by 7 pm on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 They had the northern most upstate in a winter storm storm warning prior to the event starting. It wasn't until wetbulbs were being reached that they expanded the winter storm warning to the entire upstate. To be fair though, I don't think there was a single model that showed places like greenwood,sc and elberton, ga dropping below freezing the morning of the event. It wasn't until a few hours before the event started that surface obs indicated we would drop so far below freezing. The Hrr started to catch on a few hours before the event got cranking as well. I can tell you the morning of the event for my backyard, the "coldest" models had me wetbulbing down to 32 and then staying around 33 and rain throughout the evening. I actually wetbulbed down to 27.4 that evening and my temperature was 31.3 when the last batch of precip moved through late that night. In many ways this event is reminding me of that one. We are still a longs way off though, so things can ovbiously drastically change. That being said, if the GFS/NAM/CMC depictions are close to accurate, I think we'll wind up with much more ice than what those models are showing right now.(based largely off what happened last year, and in other CAD events.) I was thinking February of last year when a storm came through with DP in the single digits to near zero. Was mostly sleet that started out briefly as snow. I think that high was moving out as well but I wet bulbed down to the low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM is a tick north with the low (bad) A tick quicker kicking the high out (bad) A tick stronger with the low (bad) But at least the precip gets here early. What's going on off the SC coast? Looks like it's trying to pop a low out there. Atlantic moisture fetch too. EDIT: Actually a tick south at 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I was thinking February of last year when a storm came through with DP in the single digits to near zero. Was mostly sleet that started out briefly as snow. I think that high was moving out as well but I wet bulbed down to the low 20's. Yep, that's the event i'm talking about it. The day before the event no models had freezing rain in georgia other than higher elevations. This is what wound up happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM is a tick north with the low (bad) A tick quicker kicking the high out (bad) A tick stronger with the low (bad But at least the precip gets here early. What's going on off the SC coast? Looks like it's trying to pop a low out there. Atlantic moisture fetch too. EDIT: Actually a tick south at 60hr. Coastal front/trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 00Z NAM has the look of one of those storms where we wait and wait and wait for the precip to make it over the mountains. The radar will continue to show the moisture coming off the mountains to the east, and yet we'll wait 12 hours before it begins to reach the ground. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Something tells me this is gonna end up being a NAM /CMC solution. Those have really been the most consistent models over the last two days of runs. But that's just my opinion. But if that blend does happen someone is in trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 00Z NAM has the look of one of those storms where we wait and wait and wait for the precip to make it over the mountains. The radar will continue to show the moisture coming off the mountains to the east, and yet we'll wait 12 hours before it begins to reach the ground. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk No doubt, the run has snow over MBY for like 8-10 hrs and QPF output is only .05-.10" for that entire period, so it will snow for that long and we will get a inch at best. Then a few hrs later it like 50 with thunderstorms.....to bad this cant stay a strung out mess and just head east from Arkansas to the Atlantic, that would be a nice over running event for everyone north of it. It wouldnt be a blockbuster storm but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Even if the main band winds up trending north/warmer, it's looking to me like there could be serious roads problems Monday morning for all of NC and even down to the midlands of SC. Most models are generating some light precip in these areas with temps down in the mid to upper 20's to start the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 that's the storm about two weeks before the snowstorm? That was the storm as early as 72 hours out the Euro and it's ensemble mean had me getting a foot. I ended up with an inch of sleet and a couple hours of freezing rain before rain. Correct. It was a big sleetstorm here. #Sleettown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The QPF hole up 95 might save us Raleigh folks from a serious ice storm, the NAM is really cold though. Over in the piedmont towards the mountains it could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 00z NAM ..verbatim a minor event for NE Ga, the Upstate and Charlotte. at most 1/8 in of glaze before the cold retreats. Seems to be a big slug of moisture come through after that. totally different story if the cold air stays in place.....but I'll leave that to more qualified folks to discern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Even if the main band winds up trending north/warmer, it's looking to me like there could be serious roads problems Monday morning for all of NC and even down to the midlands of SC. Most models are generating some light precip in these areas with temps down in the mid to upper 20's to start the day. NAM got wetter than 18z... but temps are still suspect. Even at the highest, CAD areas in the Piedmont are ~ 33 with a dewpoint of spotty 32 and 33s. I doubt they go that high, but as the weather offices love to say, STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z NAM is a cutter/runner, but still shows some decent ice until the wedge breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Correct.That storm was a huge kick in the... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Geez, the 4km is so much faster than the 32km NAM it doesn't even make sense... The 32km NAM is pouring over northern Mississippi at 7am Monday. and the 4km is doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's quite a wedge, 50F over Raleigh and 20 miles west it's 35F. I wonder where SLP track is...right up Raleigh backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just as far as clown maps go, the NAM has trended less and less since its 12z run today as far as frozen totals go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Downeast lol I hear you. I/we all need a good hit, pure snow before we have to endure our normal climo summer. It's truly a phenomenon to get a pure synoptic driven snow storm in NC, even in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 00z NAM ..verbatim a minor event for NE Ga, the Upstate and Charlotte. at most 1/8 in of glaze before the cold retreats. Seems to be a big slug of moisture come through after that. totally different story if the cold air stays in place.....but I'll leave that to more qualified folks to discern. And honestly, that's what I'm rooting for. Not fun running chainsaws and sitting in a cold, dark house! If it's not snow/sleet, give me rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's quite a wedge, 50F over Raleigh and 20 miles west it's 35F. I wonder where SLP track is...right up Raleigh backside. I do not believe a track up through the Piedmont. Maybe it will, but I'm skeptical of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Not sure the NAM cuts, there is a weak SLP up in the apps that dies out but the primary is down in central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 4km NAM has my back yard at 27/23 Monday morning with 1/10th of liquid already fallen and the heaviest band of precip only a few hours away. I have a hard time buying that I warm above freezing if you extrapolate that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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