Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

[superjames1992]

The Euro has fluctuated some (not "wildly") and has not shown a weak low going south of I-20- all were some form of cutter. So I doubt that it switches to that different a solution at this point.

It did show such a solution on the 00z a few nights ago, not that that has much relevance at this point 48 hours later.

[packbacker]

I remember last Sunday when the Euro was showing a whiff of the area with the big coastal and the CMC/GFS were showing hit up to the event practically.  We know how that turned out, I bet if I go back and read the thread for that we will see a bunch of "never bet against the Euro".  Short term memories when wishcasting, but hey I am on board, Euro is wrong.

[SN_Lover]

The Euro has fluctuated some (not "wildly") and has not shown a weak low going south of I-20- all were some form of cutter. So I doubt that it switches to that different a solution at this point.

I will agree that the Euro is a strong model, but it's verification at this hour has gone down while the GFS has risen leading me to side with the GFS as of present. 

 

Notice the upswing in the GFS and the decrease in the Euro. 

 

[snowlover91]

But now the Euro is pretty consistent 3 runs in a row. When that happens, especially at this shorter range it is very hard to bet against it.

Recently it's struggled. For example the system today it didn't show any qpf for Eastern NC until about 24 hours out.. It was the last model to indicate anything and didn't catch on until the very end. GFS, CMC, RGEM, nam and ARPEGE all indicated light snows for Eastern NC long before Euro did. It is good but has struggled recently.. It could end up being right but right now I would take a blend of the CMC, GFS and NAM. Also the NAM was the first model to pick up on the Eastern NC snow being seen today.

[superjames1992]

I remember last Sunday when the Euro was showing a whiff of the area with the big coastal and the CMC/GFS were showing hit up to the event practically. We know how that turned out, I bet if I go back and read the thread for that we will see a bunch of "never bet against the Euro". Short term memories when wishcasting, but hey I am on board, Euro is wrong.

Um, the only model that showed a hit consistently was the NAVGEM and to some degree the JMA. Pretty sure the GFS and GGEM did okay for the most part. I know the GGEM did have a ridiculous run in the final hours, but the Euro was not immune to this, either, as it showed 2" of snow for Wake County on the 00z run right before the storm.

The storm did hit E NC pretty hard, anyways... It was just not snow, though the thermal profile on the coastal plain never looked particularly good on any model.

[UpstateSCBud]

Don't worry about the Euro. The 18z NAM will save us.

[snowlover91]

I remember last Sunday when the Euro was showing a whiff of the area with the big coastal and the CMC/GFS were showing hit up to the event practically. We know how that turned out, I bet if I go back and read the thread for that we will see a bunch of "never bet against the Euro". Short term memories when wishcasting, but hey I am on board, Euro is wrong.

The Euro also had areas like Greenville dry that ended up seeing 1" of rain so it didn't do well either.. Then within 24 hours of the event it showed RDU getting 1-2" of snow and we see how that ended up. It's a good model but not always the best. If Euro and UK and ARPEGE come on board with the same solution then I would go with that but right now it's Euro vs ARPEGE and UK.

[No snow for you]

Don't worry about the Euro. The 18z NAM will save us.

Looks like the 84 hour NAM may score again. 

[No snow for you]

For the ice storm on I-85. I just don't see it. Sleet, yes, ice, no. I can see the 2-3 inches of snow then 1.5-2 inches of sleet. We tend to be colder than the models show and the CAD is stronger as well. That has been the history the last two years. I have seen 5 major ice storms for GSP predicted in the last 2 years and I am still waiting for the first. 

[JoshM]

I'll take the High Res NAM right now... all the snow (or probably virga) it depicts starting at Hr 60 will really help get the in-situ wedge in top shape. It nailed the virga to flizzard we got today.

 

 

Curious as to this little disturbance coming off the atlantic towards GA and up to the carolinas.

 

[superjames1992]

For the ice storm on I-85. I just don't see it. Sleet, yes, ice, no. I can see the 2-3 inches of snow then 1.5-2 inches of sleet. We tend to be colder than the models show and the CAD is stronger as well. That has been the history the last two years. I have seen 5 major ice storms for GSP predicted in the last 2 years and I am still waiting for the first.

It has been much the same here. We did get a decent bout if ZR (0.25-0.5") in March 2014 here, but even that was mostly sleet. This is a sleettown.

[packbacker]

You guys bring up some valid points, I am sure the Euro is wrong.  

[Shawn]

If the PARA and OP Euro both show the same idea, that's a big sign they are going to be right.  Haven't looked at the new PARA today.

[Jonathan]

You guys bring up some valid points, I am sure the Euro is wrong.

Glad to see you haven't lost it, Pack! Just joking. We should proceed with much caution without the EURO on board, always.

[wncsnow]

Climo says it is quite rare for a LP to track into the foothills/mtns especially this time of year but it can happen. I think a track through central GA, SC to near RDU is more likely. That track wouldnt benefit me mind you..

[JoshM]

Also... some dewpoints over the triad are in the single digits Sunday night.

 

[franklin NCwx]

If the PARA and OP Euro both show the same idea, that's a big sign they are going to be right. Haven't looked at the new PARA today.

while the Euro could be right it's on an island. Its not the same model it used to be. All the other globals seem to be in good agreement with each other. If it was the Euro showing a snowstorm and all the other models showing a cutter, would we be excited?

I have been burned by the Euro too many times. It lost king status in February of 2011.

[snowlover91]

while the Euro could be right it's on an island. Its not the same model it used to be. All the other globals seem to be in good agreement with each other. If it was the Euro showing a snowstorm and all the other models showing a cutter, would we be excited?

I have been burned by the Euro too many times. It lost king status in February of 2011.

The new king for me is the ARPEGE model. It did well with today's event for Eastern NC and the strong low off the NC coast it nailed way in advance. It has done quite well recently and it is showing a solution closer to the CMC/GFS/UK. The NAM is also along those lines so I'm not putting much weight into the Euro track at this time.

[franklin NCwx]

The new king for me is the ARPEGE model. It did well with today's event for Eastern NC and the strong low off the NC coast it nailed way in advance. It has done quite well recently and it is showing a solution closer to the CMC/GFS/UK. The NAM is also along those lines so I'm not putting much weight into the Euro track at this time.

Who,has the 12z French model?

[beanskip]

DT on FB: "I will briefly say however that all the model data at midday is warmer and most of them take main LOW up the Appalachians mountains or just to the east of the mountains across the coastal plain Monday night and Tuesday morning."

 

It's a good thing his minions don't actually look at weather models. What he says here is demonstrably false.

[superjames1992]

Who,has the 12z French model?

French fries is up on Meteociel.fr. It was a flush hit for CADland and the mountains.

[JoshM]

French fries is up on Meteociel.fr. It was a flush hit for CADland and the mountains.

 

So... French, NAM, GFS (sorta), and CMC.

[No snow for you]

Doesn't the French have some euro in it?

[MillerA]

_{Gsp Disco}

 

<sub>Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/...
as of 245 PM EST Friday...the short term is a mess...but I
suppose most users want more information than just that. The
synoptic pattern for the first part of the short term is fairly
straightforward with a deep upper trough over the eastern Seaboard
and a very cold Arctic surface high building in from the northwest
with deep-layer strong cold air advection spreading across the area. Winds
and resulting wind chills will continue to be an issue at the
beginning of the period but should taper off as the surface high
builds in. With that...expect low temperatures Sunday morning to
be very cold...teens and low 20s across the upstate...with single
digits in the northern mountains. Recovery on Sunday afternoon
will be minuscule with barely half the forecast area getting above
freezing...maybe some upper 30s down south.

Meanwhile the aforementioned mess gets geared up over the northern
plains and upper Midwest as a shortwave dives down...with a
secondary wave dipping into the plains out of the northern
rockies. Moisture will increase across the deep south ahead of
the approaching front...while the surface high shifts east and
tries to dam down the eastern Seaboard in a very progressive
hybrid cad. Definitely some uncertainty here as by the time the
precipitation starts to overspread our forecast area...the parent
high is offshore thereby no longer supplying a source of good low
level cold air advection...but evaporational cooling into the cold and dry surface
layer may help to create a bit of insitu damming. A lot will depend
on where exactly the dewpoints are at precipitation /virga/ onset.

Additionally...as if taking diabatic processes into account isn't
difficult enough...there is still significant uncertainly on
location of the surface low. 12z GFS has shifted farther south
/say from Augusta to Raleigh/...which would naturally result in
greater chances for wintry precipitation. However...the new 12z European model (ecmwf)
takes the surface low on the northwest side of the Appalachians...which
would cut off any wintry potential for most of our area by midday
Monday. Wpc guidance suggested sticking with the 12z European model (ecmwf)/00z
European model (ecmwf) ensemble mean position...which is all well and good except
those data are not available for US to use operationally. Tried
to take a blend of the operational 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf)...but again
European model (ecmwf) data are limited...so in the end our forecast is probably
on the cool /and pessimistic/ side of guidance. As an example
however...taking the raw GFS vs. European model (ecmwf)...the differences in high
temperatures Monday for gsp are 33 vs 39 respectively...and for clt it
is worse with 34 vs. 46 respectively.

So what we have as the system approaches is a very cold column
and when precipitation begins...it will begin as all snow. As the
surface low approaches...while surface winds remain northeasterly
in response to the insitu damming...winds aloft will pick up out of
the south and warm air advection atop the cold dome will instigate a changeover
from snow to sleet to freezing rain from south to north. Probably
all rain across most of the area...except maybe the mountains and
northern tier...by Monday evening. I cannot emphasize enough that
confidence is --very-- low on actual temperatures and thus ptype
transition...and thus snow and ice accums. But speaking of the
latter...currently our grids have from a trace snow across the
upstate to 3-4 inches across the mountains through the end of the
short term /12z Tuesday...more snow with wraparound precipitation as we
transition into the extended/...with trace ice across the upstate
to a maximum of around 1/4 inch across the northern mountains. This
actually lines up pretty well with wpc guidance for now...but
I will reemphasize once again that confidence is low and there
is quite a bit of uncertainty especially on southern extent of
wintry precipitation. Highest confidence /big surprise/ is across
the mountains.

&&</sub>
 

[raysum]

Great and honest disco by GSP....still a long way to go with this storm

[RubiksDestroyer]

 

DT on FB: "I will briefly say however that the Euro (which is the only model that matters) at midday is warmer than most and takes the main LOW up the Appalachians mountains or just to the east of the mountains across the coastal plain Monday night and Tuesday morning."

 

It's a good thing his minions don't actually look at weather models. What he says here is demonstrably false.

 

FYP, or rather, DT's post.

[arandall]

Great and honest disco by GSP....still a long way to go with this storm

Agreed - really impressed with it, honestly. 

[packfan98]

EPS report anyone?

[mackerel_sky]

EPS report anyone?

Follows Op, winter storm cancel

[WSNC]

Not much change on 12z eps vs 0z.   A lot of members have low centered around northern Alabama around hour 90, but then a lot of spread in individual members on low placement thereafter.  Leaves window open for model to trend better (or worse).