Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If this winds up being a weaker wave that tracks up I-95. Credit will have to be given to the Canadian. It's the only model that hasn't flopped around like a fish out of water over the last 3 days. Also, if we get a Canadian type low track. I'm starting to think the ice-storm will be devastating for the upstate. It's not cold enough at 925mb for sleet, but the canadian only warms 850's up to the +2 range when the heaviest band moves through. Considering how cold we start, I would be surprised if we have warmed up above 30 or 31 degree's by the time the back edge of precip gets here. Also if that solution verifies, I wouldn't be afraid to say the upstate stays frozen for whole duration of the storm without a changeover to Rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Dang, higher res UKMET maps have a 1045 off the coast... going to 1050. It's weaker situated over the NE. 1032-1035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 UKMet at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The CMC has really been decent this winter and I have actually been using it more than I can remember as of late. Anyway here is the qpf for freezing rain. That would be ugly to say the least. If we do get a decent thump of snow from the initial warm advection wave then that will slow the erosion of CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 UKMet at 72 Dang looking at that sucker. Its gonna ride I 95 and that H is in a better looking spit as well! The runs today is trending in everyone's favor but still gives most a nasty Ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Navgem and Frenchie up next? NAVGEM usually doesn't do temps very well but it's showing a nice wedge still through Tuesday morning. Great trends today from CLT to GSO and points west, assuming you want a bad ice storm with some front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 About time for Cosgrove to weigh in with some CAD insights????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 UKMet at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z CMC is a thing of beauty... Now that's a wedge my friends I'm in upper 20s, ZR, not fun anymore! And cold still probably underdone ! Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Well, we know we are on track to see Wintry. The 12z JMA is so slow with the low, that the high is off the screen by the time it is coming across LA. - I hope that model verifies well elsewhere, because it's a joke for the usa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 About time for Cosgrove to weigh in with some CAD insights????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Well, we know we are on track to see Wintry. The 12z JMA is so slow with the low, that the high is off the screen by the time it is coming across LA. - I hope that model verifies well elsewhere, because it's a joke for the usa. Everybody knows the JMA has poor eye site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Everybody knows the JMA has poor eye site. Hug the NAM, it's a trendsetter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS farther north and warmer- 1011 surface low central AL to north GA to near CLT to just east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Lol... Might have to start following that kicker, it might produce like today's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like the French model is a little sharper with the wave on the 12z run. Breaks down the wedge a little quicker this run, but has some precip still in the cold wedge....probably more like the GFS. Hard to tell the sfc low track with the crude maps http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=27&code=0&mode=0&carte=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Poor GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS farther north and warmer- 1011 surface low central AL to north GA to near CLT to just east of DC. It just doesn't like Bloo Q Kazoo. It will come around sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS farther north and warmer- 1011 surface low central AL to north GA to near CLT to just east of DC. Even a track like that is still a nasty Ice storm for the upstate. I'm about to point now where its gonna be a Sig Ice storm with 1-2" snow on front end for anyone North of I85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS farther north and warmer- 1011 surface low central AL to north GA to near CLT to just east of DC. Are you talking in comparison to the GFS run or the past GEFS run? Looks south in comparing the GEFS runs. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If this winds up being a weaker wave that tracks up I-95. Credit will have to be given to the Canadian. It's the only model that hasn't flopped around like a fish out of water over the last 3 days. Also, if we get a Canadian type low track. I'm starting to think the ice-storm will be devastating for the upstate. It's not cold enough at 925mb for sleet, but the canadian only warms 850's up to the +2 range when the heaviest band moves through. Considering how cold we start, I would be surprised if we have warmed up above 30 or 31 degree's by the time the back edge of precip gets here. I'm along those same lines of thinking Burrel! I'm thinking the front end will drop an inch or two of snow for the upstate I-85 and north. That being Wahalla, Clemson, Central, Easley, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Spartanburg, Gaffney and north. Then I expect a long duration of ice. Could be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Even a track like that is still a nasty Ice storm for the upstate. I'm about to point now where its gonna be a Sig Ice storm with 1-2" snow on front end for anyone North of I85 road trip Mack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gefs individuals went from sending lows through western Tennessee into ky, to central and northern gulf states to the NC piedmont. All that in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like the French model is a little sharper with the wave on the 12z run. Breaks down the wedge a little quicker this run, but has some precip still in the cold wedge....probably more like the GFS. Hard to tell the sfc low track with the crude maps http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=27&code=0&mode=0&carte=2 Yeah, looks to show a major storm for the CAD regions still. Good to see. The LP looks weak, which is what we want to see. All models are onboard now except the Euro, I think, and the Euro may jump onboard in a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS farther north and warmer- 1011 surface low central AL to north GA to near CLT to just east of DC. Further north than what? The operational? Looks very close, and it's WAY south of the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gefs individuals went from sending lows through western Tennessee into ky, to central and northern gulf states to the NC piedmont. All that in 6 hours. A much southern track just seems more reasonable due to the amount of CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 A much southern track just seems more reasonable due to the amount of CAD.It's not the cad. It's due to the faster wave on its heels and the energy diving into the backside of the trough later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The models are trolling us trying to pull us back in! lol. I'm going to have to see a major shift in modeling to bring me back in to this one. The NAM and CMC are the tracks I'd like to see, but that duo doesn't instill a lot of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm along those same lines of thinking Burrel! I'm thinking the front end will drop an inch or two of snow for the upstate I-85 and north. That being Wahalla, Clemson, Central, Easley, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Spartanburg, Gaffney and north. Then I expect a long duration of ice. Could be devastating. Agreed...front end snow then a sig. ice storm. Are we expecting strong winds as this moves out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Like many are saying, with the CMC track, I am not buying the fast erosion of the CAD in this situation. While it may be too warm for CAE proper, the Northern Midlands are well in the game as modeling is moving the high out too quickly. Also, the high is modeled at around 1032mb over the NE, and again there are ensemble members with 1035+. Some have 1040+. If the 1040+ verified, people are in trouble. Throughout the year, I constantly read in my forecast discussions "adjusted max temps due to wedge conditions persisting" type talk. this is no different. the canadian still doesn't have surface temps responding at all after precip starts despite the low dewpoints/wetbulbs. By 12z, temps are in the mid 20s over the carolinas to upper 20s in northeast ga with dewpoints only slightly rising from the single digits at 06z to only the mid teens by 12z...which gives wetbulbs generally in the range of the low 20s in the upstate to mid to upper 20s in northeast ga. So anything it shows during the day is likely quite a bit too warm...especially since the low track is even further south/better. On some occasions you don't see a massive drop in surface temps when precip starts if the cold layer is very shallow (been burned by that before ) but as you can see here that through 12z it extends all the way to 925mb initially before retreating a bit by 18z. canadian looks like it has precip arriving mid morning. .Before nam warms up 950mb temps, it has even colder temps at that level. So I expect a decent temp drop after precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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