superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS Ens mean has trended south. Low track has improved at 102 from Cincinnati to Chattanooga. Then at 108 into the Upstate? Weird track. No surprise to see the ensembles kowtowing the operationals as far as shifts. Good to see, though. EDIT: Make that shifts, not trends... not sure we can call one run a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Something tells me the new snow cover tomorrow over the Appalachians and eastern North Carolina could end up being a wildcard for the track of this system. Models already hugging the south-east track away from the snow covered mountains going safely near or below Charlotte....and it will be a wait and see if there is widespread snow cover say near Rocky Mount to Elizabeth City. One can dream it will follow the same principle and stay south-east deep into SC...south of the new snow extent. #weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 There are two camps for this event. Those outside the mountains, and those inside the mountains and super CAD areas. I mean no offense to those I offend in those areas ;/ with what I have said before. But us down here and dangerously close to even the Upstate, things are rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC ENS has a track like the OP but a little slower. Low goes from Montgomery to E NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 FWIW, Candian came South with the ZR line slightly. Down towards my way,, closer to Columbia SC. Maybe you guys are onto something with the colder guidance being on that model's side. Before it was centered over us, earlier it went to the upstate.. now it is back. Basically, models might be getting heavier precip into the area sooner.. Snow farther North ahead of us.. maybe sleet... and we could end up with just enough ice around these parts to make life annoying. 3 days out. I still feel like the big system is too late, but the original northern stream energy slightly merging with the kicker could cause forecast problems if models outside the lower reso guidance do not see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC keeps the wedge thru 102 Just a note on this, if the canadian played out as advertised the wedge would be quite a bit stronger than that. Just like all models, it too does not do well with surface evaparational cooling...and the timing on the canadian is very good at taking advantage of the low dewpoints/wetbulbs in place across the region. Just prior to the arrival of precip, canadian has surface temps already at or below freezing area wide while dewpoints are in the single digits. That gives wetbulbs that are actually lower than climo for major ice storms from north ga into the western carolinas...which here in north georgia for example is normally 29 to 31, or 27 to 30 for the colder storms. So having a wetbulb as low as 24 to 26 is quite impressive. Upstream into western carolinas, the canadian has wetbulbs as low as the upper teens! So with the canadian spreading precip into even before dawn in the far north and shortly there after elsewhere, we should be able to take advantage of the very low temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs that will be in place. This is a lot different than the last winter storm where things were already saturated and the cold air we got was due to just straight up cold air advection in the boundary layer...which the models actually do a better job at..especially compared to how they handle a situation like this. On average in the models will over shoot temps by an average of a couple of degrees but considering the timing of the precip, the intensity of the precip the canadian is showing, the already very cold/low surface temps over very low dewpoints..i would imagine you can knock off at least 3 to 5 degrees from those temperatures it's showing all day monday. I'll be honest, i'm surprised it's not lower already since earlier runs looked more reasonable with surface temps during the day monday and they weren't as impressive with the precip during the day. This much colder/denser airmass that is likely to be in place will obviously enhance pressures and impact/delay warming in the damming region. I would be utterly shocked if temps ever got out of the 20s from north ga into the carolinas until late monday night or early tuesday where latent heat release more than anything will finally inch temps upward a little but by that time precip would be mostly over anyway. As for the gfs run, there are obviously issues. If the low is delayed and tracks that far north then everything changes. Not only would waa be stronger but the delayed precip would allow temps to warm monday and overall it wouldn't be a big deal. That said, the 0z gfs run is worlds better than the 18z for sure. However, it driving the surface low straight into the heart of a wedge is highly suspect. Mind you the wedge is no where near as strong for the above reasons if precip is delayed that much but even so that low track (and other models showing anything similar) are highly suspect to me. So long as the system is as progressive as something like the canadian, the wedge is going to be very strong...strong enough to cause any low to bend around it. If it's delayed then obviously that would mean a warmer outcome which many here have already made clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just a note on this, if the canadian played out as advertised the wedge would be quite a bit stronger than that. Just like all models, it too does not do well with surface evaparational cooling...and the timing on the canadian is very good at taking advantage of the low dewpoints/wetbulbs in place across the region. Just prior to the arrival of precip, canadian has surface ... Lookout, please start archiving your posts into a separate text file or in a forum thread. These are good posts. In fact, many give you credit outside this site to the analysis you make on CAD. I'll copy and paste this response to ya in a message in case you miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just a note on this, if the canadian played out as advertised the wedge would be quite a bit stronger than that. Just like all models, it too does not do well with surface evaparational cooling...and the timing on the canadian is very good at taking advantage of the low dewpoints/wetbulbs in place across the region. Just prior to the arrival of precip, canadian has surface temps already at or below freezing area wide while dewpoints are in the single digits. That gives wetbulbs that are actually lower than climo for major ice storms from north ga into the western carolinas...which here in north georgia for example is normally 29 to 31, or 27 to 30 for the colder storms. So having a wetbulb as low as 24 to 26 is quite impressive. Upstream into western carolinas, the canadian has wetbulbs as low as the upper teens! So with the canadian spreading precip into even before dawn in the far north and shortly there after elsewhere, we should be able to take advantage of the very low temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs that will be in place. This is a lot different than the last winter storm where things were already saturated and the cold air we got was due to just straight up cold air advection in the boundary layer...which the models actually do a better job at..especially compared to how they handle a situation like this. On average in the models will over shoot temps by an average of a couple of degrees but considering the timing of the precip, the intensity of the precip the canadian is showing, the already very cold/low surface temps over very low dewpoints..i would imagine you can knock off at least 3 to 5 degrees from those temperatures it's showing all day monday. I'll be honest, i'm surprised it's not lower already since earlier runs looked more reasonable with surface temps during the day monday and they weren't as impressive with the precip during the day. This much colder/denser airmass that is likely to be in place will obviously enhance pressures and impact/delay warming in the damming region. I would be utterly shocked if temps ever got out of the 20s from north ga into the carolinas until late monday night or early tuesday where latent heat release more than anything will finally inch temps upward a little but by that time precip would be mostly over anyway. As for the gfs run, there are obviously issues. If the low is delayed and tracks that far north then everything changes. Not only would waa be stronger but the delayed precip would allow temps to warm monday and overall it wouldn't be a big deal. That said, the 0z gfs run is worlds better than the 18z for sure. However, it driving the surface low straight into the heart of a wedge is highly suspect. Mind you the wedge is no where near as strong for the above reasons if precip is delayed that much but even so that low track (and other models showing anything similar) are highly suspect to me. So long as the system is as progressive as something like the canadian, the wedge is going to be very strong...strong enough to cause any low to bend around it. If it's delayed then obviously that would mean a warmer outcome which many here have already made clear. Good post lookout! Thanks for the input! Maybe this is what the NWS and other mets see, that's why they continued to honk the horn on a major ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The euro is a touch south of the 12z I'd say and faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The euro is a touch south of the 12z I'd say and faster It is better than the 12z run, but ultimately still a rainy disaster for almost all of us. We'll just chalk it up to "Euro overamped, per usual" and toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro still not good at all, torching at 850, low moving into Northern GA @ 96 At least it's not an apps runner and there are no Lake cutters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro still not good at all, torching at 850, low moving into Northern GA @ 96 Yeah, but at least it's not running it up the west side of the Apps this time, I guess. The 12z run had it in West Virginia at that time frame, LOL. Tonight's run slams it right through the NC Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah, but at least it's not running it up the west side of the Apps this time, I guess. The 12z run had it in West Virginia at that time frame, LOL. Tonight's run slams it right through the NC Piedmont. SLAM IT INTO THE WEDGE... I DOUBLE DAWG DARE YA!! Just keep nudging it east... This little trend will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 SLAM IT INTO THE WEDGE... I DOUBLE DAWG DARE YA!! Just keep nudging it east... This little trend will do fine. It's in the 50s by the time it slams it through the NC Piedmont, unfortunately. Part of the problem is that the WAA precip mostly misses us to the north, so we kind of miss the wedging and it scours out more easily without precip. Looks like our favorite weenie model, the ARPEGE, should be out soon. The NAVGEM tonight actually showed wintry precip on the front-end for the first time, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's still known as Dr.NO! not good but a pretty good shift towards the other models with track............. Euro has been all over the place last few runs. IDK Stick with the Maple Leaf... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's still known as Dr.NO! not good but a pretty good shift towards the other models with track............. Euro has been all over the place last few runs. IDK Stick with the Maple Leaf... lol Yeah, I wouldn't exactly be putting my chips in the Euro's basket right now... it's been to Ohio and back twice again in the last 48 hours. We'll see. The Canadian seemingly has been the most consistent, which doesn't necessarily mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah, I wouldn't exactly be putting my chips in the Euro's basket right now... it's been to Ohio and back twice again in the last 48 hours. We'll see. The Canadian seemingly has been the most consistent, which doesn't necessarily mean anything. Doc may be right when you have every solution in just a few runs. But I don't buy it when being so erratic. May just be rain here, but still Euro stinks with this storm so far. Jumping around hundreds of miles every 12 hours???? IDK I'm not giving up until 12z Saturday! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 00z ARPEGE holds firm. Another weak wave and a crush job for all of the CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 My problem with the CMC is that it always seems to be too cold during these types of setups and now with the GFS and the Euro showing that low passing too far north for us it's really hard to take the CMC seriously. The past storms would say this should stay a little further south but I'm not sure we have enough wiggle room to go south enough. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 06z nam is way south as well. Trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 6z gfs runs the apps. The 0z fim model jb is talking about looks more like the ukie with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 One goes south one goes north...this is like a game of Checkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Doesn't sound like we have any model consensus yet or a trend one way or another. Models are still all over the place with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Doesn't sound like we have any model consensus yet or a trend one way or another. Models are still all over the place with this. There is a concensus that says you get a good rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I can go ahead and say with 90% certainty that Wake County will have the possibility of a brief wintry mix Monday morning followed by a lot of rain through Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 6z GEFS tracks the low up the west side of the Appalachians and ends up around Buffalo, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I can go ahead and say with 90% certainty that Wake County will have the possibility of a brief wintry mix Monday morning followed by a lot of rain through Tuesday night. It's a sign of a ridiculous place we live when the eastern part of Wake County could do better on today's event, while the western part could do better on Monday's event. And by better I mean 3 flakes vs. 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 6z GEFS tracks the low up the west side of the Appalachians and ends up around Buffalo, NY. It is still a mess upstairs.... solutions all over the place: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It is still a mess upstairs.... solutions all over the place: Which is why I said there still is no consensus or trends on way or the other. Even if the models show rain here now, with them being all over the place there really is no consensus yet on what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Brief start as snow/ice if moisture moves in quick enough then over to rain. I'd say that's about a 90% chance of a verifying forecast for most North of I40 in NC especially the CAD areas! As it stands now. That's your Big Frosty morning update. Take with a boulder of salt! Subject to change to all cold rain. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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