franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Cmc is a major ice storm for the foothills and northern upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Seems like it does, but not as pronounced as GFS with the kickerThanks. Hope to see that continue on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 a TON of precip in NC foothills/mtns. on CMC 3" of precip northern foothills....2" north-west Piedmont. Let's hope more of this falls frozen than liquid on a hard ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 3" of precip northern foothills....2" north-west Piedmont. Let's hope more of this falls frozen than liquid on a hard ground. Well I'd say in mnts and CAD regions alot of it would be frozen with that wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Bsud what's your thoughts for the upstate with this run Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Bsud what's your thoughts for the upstate with this run Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Don't know where in the upstate you are but it looks to stay frozen until around hour 102 by which time Spartanburg is still below freezing and 1.5"+ of QPF has already fallen; looks like pretty nasty ice storm with perhaps a couple inches of snow on front end and eventual change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Don't know where in the upstate you are but it looks to stay frozen until around hour 102 by which time Spartanburg is still below freezing and 1.5"+ of QPF has already fallen; looks like pretty nasty ice storm with perhaps a couple inches of snow on front end and eventual change to rain.Yikes I'm in greer any of that snow or all zrSent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Never mind I just read it Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yikes I'm in greer any of that snow or all zr Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk most is freezing rain sleet. You probably get a few inches of snow upfront.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016021200&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Don't know where in the upstate you are but it looks to stay frozen until around hour 102 by which time Spartanburg is still below freezing and 1.5"+ of QPF has already fallen; looks like pretty nasty ice storm with perhaps a couple inches of snow on front end and eventual change to rain. Yea you beat me to it. Exactly my thoughts as well. Not a pretty storm for Upstate. It could turn ugly in a hurry. Just hope we get a little further south track to keep us more in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yea you beat me to it. Exactly my thoughts as well. Not a pretty storm for Upstate. It could turn ugly in a hurry. Just hope we get a little further south track to keep us more in the snow. I hope being closer to travelers rest than Greenville airport (Furman) will help me. I know it did make a huge difference with the last storm. On that Friday I drove maybe 1.5 miles into TR by the bojangles and it was much much worse than at my apartment and downtown was still above freezing. How much back end snow did you get that day? Ended up with 4.5" actually so I'm pretty happy with this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC looks like a weenie Digex run. Total Snow / Sleet / Frz rain maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I hope being closer to travelers rest than Greenville airport (Furman) will help me. I know it did make a huge difference with the last storm. On that Friday I drove maybe 1.5 miles into TR by the bojangles and it was much much worse than at my apartment and downtown was still above freezing. How much back end snow did you get that day? Ended up with 4.5" actually so I'm pretty happy with this winter so far. Over here in Pickens I had about 4" total 1" sleet then about 3" snow on the backend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So far the biggest thing to take away on tonight's runs is that kicker. If that continues to speed up, this system will trend weaker and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Good grief if that CMC verified we would be in trouble. .5"ZR 1-2" sleet and 3-5" snow for Upstate! Yea that's a weenie run alright! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This may be a scenario where it floods with freezing rain...too heavy....good accumulations on trees/power lines but too much runoff near the surface into rivers. I'm leaning against a snowy solution for the mountains/foothills....there will be some but I'm not sure what RaysWeather is thinking with the Big Snow meter. I consider big at least double digits for a place like Boone. CMC is well out to lunch with its snow totals verbatim. Of course, like I said after the 18z GFS, there is still days of model watching so the precip type will continue to be fine tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Good grief if that CMC verified we would be in trouble. .5"ZR 1-2" sleet and 3-5" snow for Upstate! Yea that's a weenie run alright! Thankfully it won't be and I can guarantee it because if it was ever right with those type of maps for previous storms over the years we would either be dead or moved away by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Thankfully it won't be and I can guarantee it because if it was ever right with those type of maps for previous storms over the years we would either be dead or moved away by now. Somewhere there would be severe FZRA, likely it would be further southwest than the GGEM shows if that scenario unfolded as is because the wedge inevitably is always stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LMAO! Oh, Canada! That's the most paralyzing winter storm in recorded history for my area. 12-18" snow, 1-3" sleet and 1" ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Somewhere there would be severe FZRA, likely it would be further southwest than the GGEM shows if that scenario unfolded as is because the wedge inevitably is always stronger than modeled. Yea and I'm afraid if tonight's runs verified the upstate would be right in the heart of it, with a crippling Ice storm with maybe a couple inches of snow on the front end but the ZR would be insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol... Wrong Franklin, tell me why I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS Ens mean has shifted south. Low track has improved at 102 from Cincinnati to Chattanooga. Then at 108 into the Upstate? Weird track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Franklin, tell me why I am wrong.Euro doesn't always win, it's been wrong many times before. And we have no idea what it will have for this one. Check out the last four runs of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS Ens has trended south. Low track has moved at 102 from Cincinnati to Chattanooga. Then at 108 into the Upstate? Weird track. Trended South? Just a day 1/2-2 days max the low was off the Carolina coast. Last night around this time,the WPC chose I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS Ens has trended south. Low track has moved at 102 from Cincinnati to Chattanooga. Then at 108 into the Upstate? Weird track. What's funny is wyff showed there map on there FB page and Justus showed that exact track. It going to west TN then dropping south into GA then turning up through central sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Trended South? Just a day 1/2-2 days max the low was off the Carolina coast. Last night around this time,the WPC chose I-95. from 18z. Poor word choice but it definitely has come south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 from 18z. Poor word choice but it definitely has come south. For the upsate/mountains I see. Didn't pay attention to see your location before I made that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LOL, the Canadian is just straight ridiculous here... 3-6" of SN (high-ratio initially), then 1"+ of IP, then 1"+ of ZR... and following a few days of very cold temperatures so it sticks to everything easily and immediately. Storm of the decade stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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