Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS is not in the same camp as euro and Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think there is enough confidence now for a Winter Storm Watch with models coming into agreement. I wouldn't be surprised if CAD regions don't push Ice storm warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro isn't the same guys come on compare hr 78 of this run to 84 of 12z. It's quicker and further south Also isobars are way more elongated which just says "I have no idea where to put this low" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro isn't the same guys come on compare hr 78 of this run to 84 of 12z. It's quicker and further south And looks colder to me, but that's probably due to it being a tick south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro isn't the same guys come on compare hr 78 of this run to 84 of 12z. It's quicker and further south trending colder too, it want go up the spine it will either be west or slide Se under wedge, I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 trending colder too, it want go up the spine it will either be west or slid Se under wedge, I think... Better chance it goes SE under wedge due to thecstout wedge, that running apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 My preliminary/first conservative call. Not ready to beef any of these areas up until we get a better understanding of the thermal profile duration. 1-3" snow/sleet for southern/central CAD zones (north-east GA to Hickory NC) 2-4"+ snow/sleet for mountains/northern CAD (Surry County, Rural Hall) 3-6"+ snow/sleet for mountains on the TN/NC line and other higher peaks (Beech Mountain) Freezing rain Tenth of an inch possible all the way down to Charlotte...some SC counties Quarter of an inch possible Piedmont Triad west Cold Rain Possibly everyone sees at least some with less closer to the MTNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 00z French Fries looks close to the GFS. Much more amped compared to past runs. Still looks cold in the damming regions, though. The NAVGEM shifted further south. Close to the Canadian, though maybe not that far. It's warmer than the Canadian, though I think the NAVGEM is well-known to be horrendous at thermals. The Euro is slightly better on the front end. Maybe an inch or two combined of snow and sleet (cold temps, too, well into the 20s) before we rain and the temperature skyrockets into the low 50s (doubt we'd actually get that warm, though). It would be the biggest pure snow storm of the year here, so all-in, I guess. I'm hugging the GGEM until my arms fall off. Maybe the 06z NAM will save winter here in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Older run that I like. Lights out for Frosty. Also some decent RAIN totals from Charlotte to west of Raleigh corridor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 03z SREF looks like mass confusion. No defined LP on the means at all, so I'd assume the ensemble members are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So what is everyone going to do when they are sitting in their cars charging their cell phones to speak with each other on the forum? I'll tell you now, fill up your gas tanks in the CAD areas! I say this because, the SREF plumes keep backing away and coming back for ZR in my area. I am well South of the majority of this forum and short range modeling still wants to get me in the game. The global models we usually rely on are having major energy and speed changes at HGT/500, and we are supposed to believe they have it figured out? The huge run -to -run changes on the Euro vs Para Euro vs GFS are a huge indicator they have no idea what wave to focus on, what part to focus on, nor the speed or phase potential. The UKMET is literally phasing half the time, going flat half the time, who knows. This is one of those events where the short range models are being more consistent. If it weren't true, I wouldn't have ice in my forecast way down here right now or FFC would not be putting briefings out saying we are within the (0-84 hr) higher resolution frame. I personally believe that the RGEM, GGEM, NAM have a better handle on the cold (especially for you guys to the North of CAE). Many models have the interaction/coastal look off the ATL coast that could absolutely wreck our forecast down here in CAE if it happens. Something is off on this storm's depiction on modeling. It's like one of those weird feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There is no way the NAM / Higher Res is this consistent without having something to it: I'm telling you, that wedge is stronger and precip is going to be earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So what is everyone going to do when they are sitting in their cars charging their cell phones to speak with each other on the forum? I'll tell you now, fill up your gas tanks in the CAD areas! I say this because, the SREF plumes keep backing away and coming back for ZR in my area. I am well South of the majority of this forum and short range modeling still wants to get me in the game. The global models we usually rely on are having major energy and speed changes at HGT/500, and we are supposed to believe they have it figured out? The huge run -to -run changes on the Euro vs Para Euro vs GFS are a huge indicator they have no idea what wave to focus on, what part to focus on, nor the speed or phase potential. The UKMET is literally phasing half the time, going flat half the time, who knows. This is one of those events where the short range models are being more consistent. If it weren't true, I wouldn't have ice in my forecast way down here right now or FFC would not be putting briefings out saying we are within the (0-84 hr) higher resolution frame. I personally believe that the RGEM, GGEM, NAM have a better handle on the cold (especially for you guys to the North of CAE). Many models have the interaction/coastal look off the ATL coast that could absolutely wreck our forecast down here in CAE if it happens. Something is off on this storm's depiction on modeling. It's like one of those weird feelings. There is no way the NAM / Higher Res is this consistent without having something to it: I'm telling you, that wedge is stronger and precip is going to be earlier. So whats your thinking around Hickory just north of I-40 west towards Morganton NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So whats your thinking around Hickory just north of I-40 west towards Morganton NC? I think anyone in those areas are way higher chance than down my way. Some modeling is bringing the low track up the spine and your way, but I don't trust that. It's hard for me to give a forecast in the mountains. Not my expertise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 06z Hi-Res NAM drops like 2-4" of snow here on the front end with temperatures starting out in the low 20s (initial snow would probably be high-ratio). Give me that and we can wash it away with 45-degree rain in 12 hours for all I care. I'm desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 06z RGEM at the end of its run is really far south. Interesting. Precip is streaming in over NC/N SC/S VA while the HP is still onshore in the NE and strong. Really cold. Snow for most of NC and ice for N SC and N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 They guys at CAE WFO are saying this: THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION LATE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP FORECAST. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD WITH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. THE MODELS HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER LONGER THAN FORECAST IN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE QPF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXCEPT USED THE LOWER GUIDANCE MONDAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. Basically, if they are saying that this far South, watch out to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 06z GFS is flatter. No Apps Runner. Weaker and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 06z GFS is flatter. No Apps Runner. Weaker and further south. Well James, I hope there is someone saving images from the last couple of days. Because if the further South/GGEM solution becomes verification, nobody will ever believe it won vs the Euro/Para/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 06z GFS is flatter. No Apps Runner. Weaker and further south. Thank you very much for the update(s) Superjames! VERY appreciated! It appears that MOST of the models now are showing the moisture arriving while we still have the high, either still feeding in, or in place. This may be an ALMOST entire duration wintry event for those further north around I-40 and so on. I am in Belmont, NC (a few miles from CLT International Airport) so it may erode quicker for my area. I am curious to see how much snow/sleet we can receive though, before changing over. I know the hype is there for this to be ALL ZR, but from living here in a CAD PRONE area, knowing the temps are always UNDERFORECASTED as well as the west to east over-running, I am very confident this system will be a lot more wintry than what is being shown by the models.This is a fun one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can someone with access gives us an EPS report after they have their morning coffee? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just don't think there will be that much rain in the mtns. Bet the precip. is frozen just about the whole event, still think this storm is headed further south and east of the area, too much cold air to overcome and now the high pressure looks to be still on shore at the onset of the precip, not as quick to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 wow, quiet on here for a winter storm on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 wow, quiet on here for a winter storm on the horizon. It's also 6:30 on a Saturday morning. I'd be asleep right now if I could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's also 6:30 on a Saturday morning. I'd be asleep right now if I could be. yep woke up to early myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Too much uncertainty to be too excited. Could be mostly rain here as most models suggest. Hopefully wrong and cmc is close to right! Too bad the storm couldn't arrive tonight as the cad is building and strong instead of retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 wow, quiet on here for a winter storm on the horizon. A handful of folks bought into the "Game over" mentality when Euro and Ukie leaned to the Apps runner solution. With the last GFS trending to the south, betcha the place will be jumping later today. BTW, a quick question for those here: Our meager Central NC event yesterday was best predicted by high-res (tip of the hat to the NAM for the precip amounts) but the approaching storm is far stronger. I've always felt the globals had a better handle on these more macro-type events. So ... should we put more credence in recent performance or traditional conventional wisdom? It's makes a big difference down here to the south of this storm. It's a call between early, nuisance ice and something more worrisome. Many thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In case no one has seen or heard 6Z GFS went away from a apps cutter. Way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 looking at the 6z NAM it would keep the CAD in place for the entire storm from RDU westward, south west through the up-state (maybe into upper midlands), and into extreme NE Ga. Remember you can still be in the CAD but above freezing. For RDU it looks to go above freezing at hour 72. There would have been ~ .40 of precip. (with main band about to pass) Over towards Greensboro looks to get > 1.00 with temps at or below freezing. Out to hour 60 looks like the critical time for the best accrual of ice through west, central, and N. NC(hour 57 in up-state, NE Ga). Temps would be in the 20s for most. From RDU westward in north central NC would have .40 or greater. So in short, RDU looks to get .40 or so of frozen and freezing. Western areas will depend on how close they get to freezing to see how much more they can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In case no one has seen or heard 6Z GFS went away from a apps cutter. Way south. this makes more sense to me with the dense cold air in place, I think it will send the storm more south and east, think most models are showing this right now but I guess still to early to call but the GFS is coming around to the more south track so maybe the Euro will start showing this as well later today, I hope so more folks get in on the frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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