Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't think Global models can handle CAD as good as meso models.... JMO NAM and RGEM blend here on out..... Euro can't handle this kind of setup either. GFS/Euro will be late to the party with this unusually set up..... Gotta go with short range or die. lol Yea I wouldn't be surprised if the Globals tomorrow doesn't start coming around to these short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Not sure how the poster above can claim the ukie runs the apps off the 72 hr panel. Next panel is 96 so it could just ss easily go east maybe se a notch through upstate and off to carolina coast or coastal plain before heading ne. Impossible to tell. However it is futher north up in northern AL than its 12z run and a little more amped. Alot more up and downs over next 36 hrs on models enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Living in the heart of the CAD my whole life expertise...I would lean heavy on a GFS/UKMET blend but yes of course believe the freezing temps stick around a little longer than shown and a slightly colder by a hair. I'm against the CMC 100% with high confidence. So you gonna just toss the CMC that's been Rock solid on this for 4 days now over the GFS that has been all over the place because it can't handle these CAD setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Surprised at some of the comments on here. I sure as heck wouldn't go with the CMC over a GFS/UKMet blend, with Euro likely joining that group...but I would prefer to be wrong with that and encased in ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 To be fair, the GFS is rather Icy in the CAD areas. So I wouldn't group it with the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So you gonna just toss the CMC that's been Rock solid on this for 4 days now over the GFS that has been all over the place because it can't handle these CAD setups? Yes...tossing the CMC has worked out really well over the years esp. CAD regions going up into the Blue Ridge. Far from rock solid for 4days when it was and maybe still is (I'm not even monitoring it) with having 20-25" of snow in the MTNS. GFS/UKMET blend is not a perfect handle...but if you add human input with the freezing lasting a little longer than modeled and a hair colder IT IS handling it over the CMC by night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Grit can you tell what the ukie does right after 72? And you shouldn't be suprised, times are tough, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Surprised at some of the comments on here. I sure as heck wouldn't go with the CMC over a GFS/UKMet blend, with Euro likely joining that group...but I would prefer to be wrong with that and encased in ice You have the RGEM/CMC/ARPEGE in the further south camp along with the NAVGEM. The 4km NAM also indicates this solution and 18z parallel GFS is weak with the low and through central GA. It's becoming obvious we have two camps; one is an apps runner and the other a central GA through southern SC around the southern edge of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Not sure how the poster above can claim the ukie runs the apps off the 72 hr panel. Next panel is 96 so it could just ss easily go east maybe se a notch through upstate and off to carolina coast or coastal plain before heading ne. Impossible to tell. However it is futher north up in northern AL than its 12z run and a little more amped. Alot more up and downs over next 36 hrs on models enjoyAt 96, UKMet is in the heart of NY State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's a app runner. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's a app runner. Thanks You can't get much details with global UkMet model no 6 hour increments, it's good on big phased storms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Did we not learn from the last storm? The gfs constantly slammed the lp of the blizzard into the cad 48hra out. I'm tossing the gfs like everyone here normally does with a regular storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We are still good for another 36 hours before I would ever take the usual EURO/NAM blend for the CAD regions. That's when I would ease some grip of the gfs/ukmet blend. I give the CMC a lot of crap but I may have used it ONCE or twice only with a 1day lead time or less tho. now: gfs/ukmet Sunday: euro/nam Sunday Night/Monday: cmc with caution/short range guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We are still good for another 36 hours before I would ever take the usual EURO/NAM blend for the CAD regions. That's when I would ease some grip of the gfs/ukmet blend. I give the CMC a lot of crap but I may have used it ONCE or twice only with a 1day lead time or less tho. now: gfs/ukmet Sunday: euro/nam Sunday Night/Monday: cmc with caution/short range guidance So we use a longer range cmc model during the storm. Got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You have the RGEM/CMC/ARPEGE in the further south camp along with the NAVGEM. The 4km NAM also indicates this solution and 18z parallel GFS is weak with the low and through central GA. It's becoming obvious we have two camps; one is an apps runner and the other a central GA through southern SC around the southern edge of the CAD.I think we have to separate two aspects here. One is the handling of the 5h wave, and the second is the handling of the high resolution damming signature. If the wave is too amped and/or too far north, it's going to put a great deal of pressure on the damming (sfc and 850 low too far NW). If the wave is farther south and not too amped, then yes, the damming can have a great deal of influence on the track of the sfc low, keeping it well south and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So we use a longer range cmc model during the storm. Got it Correct. It's common since it goes from really bad to closer to reality when closer to the storm 99% of the time. Also I would like to add the freezing rain hatch warning criteria was issued based on the GFS from mets at the WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Comparing the GFS and CMC 5h wave, the vort max on the GFS bottoms out in TN, whereas on the CMC, it bottoms out in AL. That has huge implications on the track of the sfc and mid level lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think we have to separate two aspects here. One is the handling of the 5h wave, and the second is the handling of the high resolution damming signature. If the wave is too amped and/or too far north, it's going to put a great deal of pressure on the damming (sfc and 850 low too far NW). If the wave is farther south and not too amped, then yes, the damming can have a great deal of influence on the track of the sfc low, keeping it well south and colder Agreed but it seems that those models which are typically amped, especially the NAM and RGEM at extended ranges, are quite weak and strung out with the LP. The ARPEGE is similar based on the rough maps I could see and this tells me, from what I've seen the past few systems, that the further south track of the LP is more likely. Euro has been bad with surface low tracks and qpf past few systems here and NAM/RGEM have been an excellent combo. Wouldn't bet against the NAM/RGEM/ARPEGE trio at this range with the low track through central or southern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Will this be my last post midnight euro run of the season? Hope someone awake has the goods. James must be out on a date. He's slipping first of the week he was in model watching 24/7 rehab. And tonight he's Mia during the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam versus GFS 5H placement hour 60. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Correct. It's common since it goes from really bad to closer to reality when closer to the storm 99% of the time. Also I would like to add the freezing rain hatch warning criteria was issued based on the GFS from mets at the WPC. I would say most models go from bad to good as we get closer to the event... Also when inside 72 hours you want to start looking more at the high res models like RGEM, NAM, ARPEGE instead of Globals as they pick up things much better. The only models which did well with today's snow for Eastern and Central NC were the HRRR, NAM and RGEM all of which happen to be high res models. Euro was terrible until inside 24 hours when it finally caught on. GFS was everywhere with qpf and low track as was CMC. We are in range where high res models need to be given more weight imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Out to 57, the Euro is slightly flatter with the wave...but not much and sfc looks quite similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yea I wouldn't be surprised if the Globals tomorrow doesn't start coming around to these short range models. Eh...that's not usually how it works with these types of setups. Most of the time globals NEVER fully come around to the short range models...not even 1hour out...that's why the professionals at the WPC are ADDING to the GFS solution already. I call EURO king most of the time because usually it will be the one global that does tend to come around with the NAM...cue the EE rule. When we get to that point history suggests to favor a slightly colder (nothing CMC like) EURO/NAM thermal profile east of the mountains while blending in aspects from the UKMET/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At 75, sfc low is over E TN / W NC, and 32 deg sfc has retreated into VA. It's very similar to last run overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thanks nfor pbp.ot suprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's pretty much a carbon copy of the UKMet....N AL to central NY State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 it's much colder in the lee looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just don't see the UKMET/EURO/GFS being wrong with their track at this range. I wouldn't bet against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well sorry but I'm not buying that LP being that far North with CAD showing up like it is. I'm sticking to the cold pushing it south. Off to bed, we will see what future runs hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think there is enough confidence now for a Winter Storm Watch with models coming into agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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