franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS para looks like a nice front end hit, especially in the foothills and NW piedmont.yeah, it's a weak string out mess. Too much energy in the flow to amp the up until in consolidates east of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think there's a consensus among the short range models that the upstate will be in the upper 20's Monday morning with dewpoints in the low 20's, and light precip has already fallen. (.05 to .10 inch) The models have as warming to freezing by around 1pm Monday afternoon. with sporadic light precip falling throughout the day under heavy cloud cover. This forecast is getting really simple.... If we can get a consistent batch of precip in here before lunch time, we will be in for an epic ice storm that would only flip to rain through latent heat release after everyone's power has been knocked out. If we don't get much or any precip until late Monday afternoon, I believe it would be possible for us to wind up with a 32/33 rain scenario when the wave of heavy precip comes through. So basically, the key is getting precip in as early as possible to lock in the wedge. If that happens, it's lights out. I believe we will see the models start trending towards more expansive precip over the upstate during the day. Isentropic uplift should be good. And, IMO, models are showing too tight of a gradient to our west. I highly doubt a 3 county strip back in alabama gets heavy rain from a stationary band for 6 hours like the GFS/NAM seem to show. Especially considering how weak the kicker wave is dropping into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If you love winter weather then ice is part of it. How often do we lose power? Once every 10-20 years? I lost it for 8 days during both big ice events in the 90's. I would prefer sleet and snow but if it's an ice storm oh well. It's winter weather like we all say we love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's also interesting to note that the 4km NAM is actually dropping temperature back below freezing across the upstate at hour 60. (7pm Monday). Verbatim, it's showing the last bit of wetbulbing we have left droping us below freezing when the heavy precip returns late monday evening. Interesting... (we still have 60 hours for this to trend colder or warmer) I'll also note that with the epic sleet storm last year, the 4km NAM showed me at 33 and rain for that entire event up until the day of the event, at which point I bottom out at 27 with heavy sleet all evening. (That arctic air mass was very cold and dry like this one is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS para looks like a nice front end hit, especially in the foothills and NW piedmont. I live just west of you in Burke County was talking with Brad and he said he expects at least .25+ of ICE around here along with his first call maps for Snow(2-6) from yesterday. So it does look like we will meet winter storm warning criteria along I-40 from what he has said. He did say he was going to reduce snow totals for the mountains because of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z nam not showing much qpf through 10pm Monday evening incad areas of NC. Only about .3" through 10pm with another 1" or so to follow after temps just over freezing. VA does well with front end overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If you love winter weather then ice is part of it. How often do we lose power? Once every 10-20 years? I lost it for 8 days during both big ice events in the 90's. I would prefer sleet and snow but if it's an ice storm oh well. It's winter weather like we all say we love. Agreed. Also, at least this wouldn't be a situation where the ice will hang around for days, preventing people from getting out to clean up fallen limbs, trees, etc and having to deal with extremely low temps for days afterwards. By tuesday everything would be melted and cleanup can quickly begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Agreed. Also, at least this wouldn't be a situation where the ice will hang around for days, preventing people from getting out to clean up fallen limbs, trees, etc and having to deal with extremely low temps for days afterwards. By tuesday everything would be melted and cleanup can quickly begin. Some great pictures for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 FWIW - they're out brining again today on 70 between my house and Smithfield. Getting all the turn lanes this time around. Guess they just did the main travel lanes during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The RGEM shows not only a nice front end hit for all of NC but it also at hour 54 keeps the HP in a good spot for CAD whereas other models already have it way offshore. If the HP stays put longer like the RGEM indicates and precip locks in the wedge like it shows early on then it will be bad. The ARPEGE at hour 54 is nearly identical. RGEM precip type hour 54 RGEM surface temps. Light blue is 23-32F for surface temps and the darker blue is 14-23F. And here is the 06z ARPEGE for reference. Shows HP in a good position still, not as good as RGEM but not offshore like NAM and other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Snow that's a huge difference. The nam has the hp WAY east of there. Wonder what the difference is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't know. Seems to me like a lot of us are just grasping at straws here. Due to the high pressure sliding off the coast at time warped speed, I just don't see this system being much more than a cold rain unless you live in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Seems like less precip , while cold, and not as cold as models were showing a few days ago, is the theme! Today we are seeing the models kick out temps in upper 20s with dp's in the 20s!?? What happened to the 20's/single digit DPs? Air not as cold as thought, less precip, or heaviest falling Monday evening, high booking out faster, equals failed winter storm, for my area atleast and probably , alot more areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Let's see if the 12z RGEM holds in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The RGEM shows not only a nice front end hit for all of NC but it also at hour 54 keeps the HP in a good spot for CAD whereas other models already have it way offshore. If the HP stays put longer like the RGEM indicates and precip locks in the wedge like it shows early on then it will be bad. The ARPEGE at hour 54 is nearly identical. That does show much colder heights than the other models....could be the start of a trend holding the high in place longer....one would think that would lead to a weaker more strung out event moving more east than a low popping and cutting, which would be better for everyone seems like Jan 2-3 2002 or one of those storms was sorta like this I gotta go look it up....crazy how much the models change and disagree even in the time frame we are in.... nope not really Jan 2002 but I remember one that I thought was early in Jan that was sorta a statewide lighter event that was mostly overrunning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 48hr RGEM. 1037mb high in perfect CAD position. Precip is mostly stil to the west of us, but it looks to be knocking on the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z rgem has actual snow falling to the ground at hour 45 and its moving in at 42. RGEM doesn't show virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RGEM hour 48, HP stronger and in nice CAD spot. NAM hour 48 weaker and already well OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I really appreciate the substantive posts in this thread, those accompanied with maps or actual weather discussion. The "My gut tells me..." and "I'm pretty sure that..." and "It looks like..." type of posts with no actual reasons to back them up simply clutter up this thread. Take it to banter and the cliff-driving thread, please. There you can whine, complain, prognosticate, lament, etc. to your heart's content. Why do we have to ask this every time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RGEM kinda looks like the Para GFS with its QPF placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RGEM is bone dry in western Tennessee at 48 hours... NAM has a monsoon there at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 ALL snow with move coming at end of run RGEM knows what it is doing and has NOT backed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At 12z Monday the rgem still has a temp of 14 in Boone, 27 in Gainesville ga. A lot of front end snow on the rgem probably going to a nasty ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Our CAD has it's work cut out for it Monday. The big high rapdily shifting offshore with a southerly flow above the CAD means business. Work the soundings hard Sunday evening. Just noticed WXBrad posted a good model graphic on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Our CAD has it's work cut out for it Monday. The big high rapdily shifting offshore with a southerly flow above the CAD means business.Depends on which model you look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't know. Seems to me like a lot of us are just grasping at straws here. Due to the high pressure sliding off the coast at time warped speed, I just don't see this system being much more than a cold rain unless you live in the mountains.Bingo. Cmc has its own biases perfect for weenies. With the HP sliding out so fast I doubt we trend to an all snow solution, even in CAD areas. The snow at onset should be fun, though. Glass half full? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At this range I prefer a blend of the ARPEGE and the RGEM. From my experience this year the RGEM has been king in the short range inside 48 hours. Picking up on trends, CAD, transition zones, etc long before any other model. It has done well with qpf and the focus of the best precip. The fact that it has the LP further south at hour 48 (it can sometimes have an amped bias hours 36-48) and holds the HP in longer up over the NE is a big deal. I would expect other models to begin trending towards this solution later today and tomorrow as they catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Tonight will be telling. RGEM gets NC way down into single digits while NAM is 10 degrees warmer. If you wake up and its 9 degrees you need to be on rgem train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gfs is looking like a weak strung out mess. Its 850 temps at hour 48 line-up with the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Very very weak surface low over Athens ga. Snow to ice to rain for folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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