Lookout Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I posted this last night, Here is what the Ukmet showed for last year's Ice storm 42 hours out. The surface low wound up skirting south of the wedge during the event. I'm not saying that's what is gonna happen with this event, but it's at the very least a possibility. post-3853-0-65098700-1424020274.gifnamussfc2015021706.gif Funny stuff..I just had thought about your post...but I couldn't remember who posted it and just spent 10 minutes looking for your it and here you are reposting it lol. glad you did though because it's a good reminder of just how off some of these models can be..even at this range. The euro has Columbia, SC around 40 degree's Monday morning. The Hi-res NAM and rgem have Columbia around 28 at the same time. You know, regardless of whatever happens in terms of freezing temperatures, it is quite something seeing the differences in surface temps between the euro and the rest of the guidance. I mean At 18z monday, the euro has temps well into the 50s in ga/sc and in the 40s to near 50 in the eastern favored damming areas in north carolina. I think it's safe to say that even under the worst case scenerio that's likely 20 degrees too warm. It reminds me of the old AVN which would put out temps like that in cad situations and we would end up staying below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I have seen on this forum all the way back to the Eastern days from mets as well as some that really know models, that the Euro is not the one to follow this close to the storm. Always watch the Nam and other short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yes on the bold!!! it's been locked in on LP movement, may be washing CAD out too quick? Either way going to be interesting to see the out come! Let's see if it's KING in CAD areas.... lol We should be fine snow man, you will see snow and ice probably longer than most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 WPC analysis if you are wanting to chase. 30-40% of quarter inch or more ice: Elkin Statesville Taylorsville Moravian Falls 20-30% of quarter inch or more: Winston Salem Greensboro Lexington Hickory Reidsville Greater than 2" of snow w/ at least 50% chance: North-East of Asheville and West of Yadkinville Much of the central and esp. northern mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 When will wwa and wsw's come out you think? After 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Funny stuff..I just had thought about your post...but I couldn't remember who posted it and just spent 10 minutes looking for your it and here you are reposting it lol. glad you did though because it's a good reminder of just how off some of these models can be..even at this range. You know, regardless of whatever happens in terms of freezing temperatures, it is quite something seeing the differences in surface temps between the euro and the rest of the guidance. I mean At 18z monday, the euro has temps well into the 50s in ga/sc and in the 40s to near 50 in the eastern favored damming areas in north carolina. I think it's safe to say that even under the worst case scenerio that's likely 20 degrees too warm. It reminds me of the old AVN which would put out temps like that in cad situations and we would end up staying below freezing. Yea, Here is the best contrast I've found so far... At 7pm Monday, the euro has lawrenceville, Ga at 53 degrees and raining. The hi-res NAM has them at 33 at that same time. Just a little difference there, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 WPC analysis if you are wanting to chase. 30-40% of quarter inch or more ice: Elkin Statesville Taylorsville Moravian Falls 20-30% of quarter inch or more: Winston Salem Greensboro Lexington Hickory Reidsville Greater than 2" of snow w/ at least 50% chance: North-East of Asheville and West of Yadkinville Much of the central and esp. northern mountains Is that from this morning or have they updated the maps for this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Funny stuff..I just had thought about your post...but I couldn't remember who posted it and just spent 10 minutes looking for your it and here you are reposting it lol. glad you did though because it's a good reminder of just how off some of these models can be..even at this range. You know, regardless of whatever happens in terms of freezing temperatures, it is quite something seeing the differences in surface temps between the euro and the rest of the guidance. I mean At 18z monday, the euro has temps well into the 50s in ga/sc and in the 40s to near 50 in the eastern favored damming areas in north carolina. I think it's safe to say that even under the worst case scenerio that's likely 20 degrees too warm. It reminds me of the old AVN which would put out temps like that in cad situations and we would end up staying below freezing. FWIW I think the Euro is too warm on Monday. But even if it 38 instead of 50. with the low coming close to ATL and the high retreating off the coast, it is just a cold rain vs a cool rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 WPC analysis if you are wanting to chase. 30-40% of quarter inch or more ice: Elkin Statesville Taylorsville Moravian Falls 20-30% of quarter inch or more: Winston Salem Greensboro Lexington Hickory Reidsville Greater than 2" of snow w/ at least 50% chance: North-East of Asheville and West of Yadkinville Much of the central and esp. northern mountains Just keep in mind those maps are auto-generated by a blend of the SREFs, EPS, a few GEFS members, and some operational models. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml When will wwa and wsw's come out you think? After 3pm Not sure we'll see any today outside the mountains. So much uncertainty still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Is that from this morning or have they updated the maps for this afternoon? 8z morning the very latest available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It has been my experience when you have this two camp dichotomy and neither budge much, the end result often is about in the middle. Problem is the middle is too warm for most folks, have to go almost 100% NAM for a decent ice event and I doubt that is what ends up occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 8z morning the very latest available Ok thanks hopefully we have the updated ones here shortly if I remember correctly they come around 3pm est or close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 New Euro identical to the last run thru 60. If it was the Euro alone in being suppressed/colder and all other models were stronger cutters, I bet a lot of folks here would be saying how great the Euro is. You have to take what you want to happen out of the equation. There is NO way that the Euro, with this consistency this close to the event will be massively wrong. Somewhat wrong- maybe. But now that the GGEM which so many were hugging yesterday is trending north, that makes me believe the Euro more. Sorry, that the way it is likely to happen. Yeah but to be fair it's still a long way from the euro and it's not uncommon to see a model move around 30 or 40 miles with a low at this range..and overall i think it's been equally consistent. I'm not saying the euro isn't right this time, very well could be but you are a braver soul than me to say there is no way the euro can be wrong..especially with how it's done even recently. Cuba is still waiting on that low it consistently showed going there a few weeks ago...it was only off by 600 miles a few days out...at about this time range iirc and after several runs in a row showing it, it shifted hundreds of miles a couple of times But If the euro ends up being right or this ends up not being a big deal other than nuisance stuff, folks should really give you a lot of credit. I personally do not want to see an ice storm, Especially after having so much damage i had last year along with countless others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It has been my experience when you have this two camp dichotomy and neither budge much, the end result often is about in the middle. Problem is the middle is too warm for most folks, have to go almost 100% NAM for a decent ice event and I doubt that is what ends up occurring. Excellent post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think the NAM will be closer to being right than the EURO but will still be quite different that what it currently shows. It will be tough to scour out the cold from areas N/W of GSO even though the predominate precip type will be sleet or ZR before a change to rain late afternoon Monday. For the Upstate, Central NC and N Ga., this is largely a little ice and a whole lot of rain will the mtns of NC should see an initial thump of 3-6 snow before a changeover. Only thing that could save the day for most folks is if the high hangs on longer than the models think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Not sure we'll see any today outside the mountains. So much uncertainty still. AFD says they were waiting for the current products to expire...which is silly if they do indeed wait until 10am Sunday! Bottom line...winter storm likely beginning Sunday evening and continuing through early Tuesday at least. For now am advertising snow/sleet/ice amounts in general agreement with wpc...showing warning criteria in all areas...6-8 inches of snow eastern WV...4-6 inches northwest NC into the New River valley and I-64 corridor...1-3 inches Southside/Piedmont...but where sleet accumulation and ice accretion up to 1/4 inch also possible. Needless to say...confidence is growing given increasing model consensus that a significant winter storm is going to occur Sunday night through Tuesday...although there are considerable details to work out with regard mainly to p-type which will in turn greatly determine amounts of snow/sleet/ice. As soon as the current/ongoing winter weather event winds down...a Winter Storm Watch will likely need to be issued soon. Significant disruptions to travel appear likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think certainty is HIGH for a Winter Storm Watch...and with coordination in Raleigh...this will include the High Point area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thinking Wake will get a wwa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thinking Wake will get a wwa? Yes all the NWS use the WPC as a guidance so a trace or more of ice down that will need a wwa. The odds are there for that to occur no matter how brief or low ice total compared to areas to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It has been my experience when you have this two camp dichotomy and neither budge much, the end result often is about in the middle. Problem is the middle is too warm for most folks, have to go almost 100% NAM for a decent ice event and I doubt that is what ends up occurring. Regardless of what happens this is a learning experience, each one always is. Each one is always different..both in reality and how the models handle them. It's what makes them so fun or frustrating depending on how you look at it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think certainty is HIGH for a Winter Storm Watch...and with coordination in Raleigh...this will include the High Point area. Yeah, I agree we should probably get one. Even the worst modeling (Euro) still gets us 1-3" of snow with the initial tongue of precip with temperatures in the mid-20s, which would be a pretty high impact event considering how cold it has been. FWIW, I looked back at the snow/sleet/ice storm we got back in mid-February 2015 and both the UKMET and Euro were trying to blast the LP through the NC Piedmont at this range. Just FWIW, and taken with a grain of salt, as it doesn't really mean anything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 For the Hickory area or for everyone in the (central/southern CAD zones) I do believe there will be a night and day difference between what you get vs what some of the north-west Piedmont counties and the northern foothills see esp. closer to midnight Monday and after. There will still be a coating of snow/sleet to over 1"...but I think the odds of 2-4" will be for the northern CAD zone. GSP would have a tougher decision to make because of that..they could go with freezing rain advisories or something else besides wwa or winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 For the Hickory area or for everyone in the (central/southern CAD zones) I do believe there will be a night and day difference between what you get vs what some of the north-west Piedmont counties and the northern foothills see esp. closer to midnight Monday and after. There will still be a coating of snow/sleet to over 1"...but I think the odds of 2-4" will be for the northern CAD zone. GSP would have a tougher decision to make because of that..they could go with freezing rain advisories or something else besides wwa or winter storm warning. How do you consider upstate, is that what you call NW Piedmont? Also would like your prediction on upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How do you consider upstate, is that what you call NW Piedmont? Also would like your prediction on upstate? Upstate would be southern cad zone...well removed from any 2-4" snow potential....under 1" of snow/sleet mixture...but enough ice for a Freezing Rain Advisory under two tenths of an inch. NW Piedmont being like High Point, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter Storm Watches have been Issued for Northern/NE GA. Also have been issued for Northern/NW NC now just waiting on GSP and there call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ043-044-058-059-140330-/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0003.160215T0000Z-160216T1700Z/SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE230 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINAINTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. AROUND A TENTHOF AN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO AWINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTOEARLY TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLYTUESDAY.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 guys I figured that all the models would by now be forever in our favor for a more southern track, when is the witching hour that if the Euro trends more south, when should we start seeing this if it's going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well I was close to the watch issued for me...2-5" not 2-4". I think the 0.1" of ice is a little low to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter Storm Watches have been Issued for Northern/NE GA. Also have been issued for Northern/NW NC now just waiting on GSP and there call. i just saw that - after reading FFC's midday comments i was surprised. they had said it appeared temps would be warmer lol crazy system - if past CADs are any experience should be an interesting couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There is no way the NAM / Higher Res is this consistent without having something to it: I'm telling you, that wedge is stronger and precip is going to be earlier. 1000% agree. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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