Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

[Lookout]

"But as you noted, the gfs is pretty light for the most part (save north carolina where they get a good bit by morning). If not for that fact, i would be almost 100% certain this is an all subfreezing event for the usual damming areas in northeast ga. I'm already there really for the carolina"

 

 

 

Lookout this is one of the issues we usaually have with the upstate and NEGA. For some reason (perhaps the climo for tracks?) the leading finger of precipitation ahead of these systems almost always (like 98% of the time) pushes through Tennessee and NC, but is too far north for GA or SC. That always has them under the returns, thus holding their temps down and getting snow or ice on the ground while GA and SC have no precip to keep the cold locked in. By the time the precip does get to us, we have warmed just enough for it not to matter. The leading precip always seems to stop at the TN/GA, NC/SC state lines. I have watched this happen countless times over the years and it is always hard to watch that leading snow and ice go North, and hit NC for hours while we wait and warm. 

Yep...same here. it can be very frustrating. I think the gfs is probably a bit too dry and there is some hope we get some predawn precip. Even if it takes to mid morning, i can't imagine temps will have warmed very much. hopefully The 4km nam for example will be the way it goes in terms of early precip.

 

with regards to the canadian..I'll say this until i'm blue in the face but any model showing the low heading head on and through the cold pool is likely wrong. The majority of the time a low that is on that trajectory hits the cold pool and is forced a little further south and around it through central ga. It might not sound like much, say 25 or 30 miles, but it makes a big difference.  Even taken at face value it's a major icestorm from the upstate to western carolinas.

 

And Once again i have to point this out until i'm blue in the face too. The canadian has surface temps from the 25 to 30 with dewpoints in the single digits and teens monday morning. yet somehow, someway, dewpoints jump damn near 30 degrees without dropping the temperature at ALL..in fact they rise...yet many are taking the surface temps at face value. does that sound reasonable? 

 

Now mind you, as i just pointed out, amount of precip is important to be able to drop those temps and take advantage of the low dewpoints but even if it's light precip you are going to see a temp response more than that. The only thing that would give me pause is if precip is very light and late which allows temps  to warm some before it arrives and/or dewpoints are higher than expected when precip starts.

 

I don't know, I usually like to try to keep things realistic and expectations grounded in reality and i don't like to sound so bullish but i feel like we are falling into the trap of taking these models at face value too much while ignoring history and  the reality of just how cold and dry this airmass is. If we didn't start off so cold, say surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and dewpoints in the teens and 20s at time of precip arrival, i'd be singing a much different song. The gfs, which is the only one, in fact does show a big jump in dewpoints before any precip falls..if that happens we won't cool off much and its likely no big deal, at least down here. But since most of the other models show otherwise, i'm discounting it. Plus it's been consistently showing temps rising, not falling or even remaining steady, after precip falls despite low dewpoints. If the low takes a track into tn like the euro while very little precip falls during the day, will keep the worst of it in western carolinas/far northeast corner. I mean it essentially shows nothing falling during the day which certainly would favor a warmer solution.

 

Even though i still leave open the possibility of not much happening thanks to not enough precip monday... i do feel like the models are handling this extremely poorly and taking them at face value is a mistake. Come monday night i might look like an idiot but I guess we'll see. Wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last

 

Hey, I learn something every single CAD event and have been wrong plenty of times....haha.

 

How long the ice sticks around is so very dependent in this type of setup on precip rates into the initial dry air. That is really the aspect of the forecast I am most concerned with nailing down....how much precip Sunday night-Monday, and hard will it be. 

 

If the precip is significant through the day, heart of the CAD areas will likely either remain below freezing or rise just above only very late in the event. 

Totally agree. You said what i was thinking a lot more efficiently lol.

[fountainguy97]

If the Euro comes in with a similar stronger cutter like the UKMET it's game over. That would make 4 runs in a row with that general solution. The best that can be hoped for IMO is some light-moderate ice from NE GA to western NC, with a change over to rain except maybe in the NW foothills of NC. We are way too close for any big shift back south, sorry.

But the rgem cmc and nam are all just as consistent lol... Euro is great for a big phasing crawler up the coast but not for a extremely intricate weak lp sliding up the eastern us... U can't just say oh euro doesn't show it so it's over every time. It's works for big storms but not for a overrunning setup like this

[WSNC]

If the Euro comes in with a similar stronger cutter like the UKMET it's game over. That would make 4 runs in a row with that general solution. The best that can be hoped for IMO is some light-moderate ice from NE GA to western NC, with a change over to rain except maybe in the NW foothills of NC. We are way too close for any big shift back south, sorry.

Have you seen the low placements on 12z individual gefs members?  All over the place still at 12z Tuesday.  Several are further south than 6z gefs.  Seems to me the trends are for weaker low that would take longer to erode wedge.  

[griteater]

Lookout this is one of the issues we usaually have with the upstate and NEGA. For some reason (perhaps the climo for tracks?) the leading finger of precipitation ahead of these systems almost always (like 98% of the time) pushes through Tennessee and NC, but is too far north for GA or SC. That always has them under the returns, thus holding their temps down and getting snow or ice on the ground while GA and SC have no precip to keep the cold locked in. By the time the precip does get to us, we have warmed just enough for it not to matter. The leading precip always seems to stop at the TN/GA, NC/SC state lines. I have watched this happen countless times over the years and it is always hard to watch that leading snow and ice go North, and hit NC for hours while we wait and warm. 

Storm track is so important, not only for keeping it cold, but also for getting in on the core of the initial conveyor of precip.  This one has always been a challenge to keep south because the waves are entering the west coast so far north (in Pacific NW)

[Bsudweather]

If the Euro comes in with a similar stronger cutter like the UKMET it's game over. That would make 4 runs in a row with that general solution. The best that can be hoped for IMO is some light-moderate ice from NE GA to western NC, with a change over to rain except maybe in the NW foothills of NC. We are way too close for any big shift back south, sorry.

Euro is an outlier imo on this event. To many more good models especially short range models that handle CAD setups very well that is trumping over the Euro. So Euro imo can be tossed completely wether its king or not it's pretty much by itself and likey gonna be wrong with this one. Sorry

[palmettoweather]

Euro is an outlier imo on this event. To many more good models especially short range models that handle CAD setups very well that is trumping over the Euro. So Euro imo can be tossed completely wether its king or not it's pretty much by itself and likey gonna be wrong with this one. Sorry

You just can't toss the UKMET and Euro when they are showing something similar. I want something wintry as much as the next guy. But them locking into something together warrants attention. Doesn't mean they are right but they can't be tossed. We would toss the Gfs and CMC in a heartbeat if the Euro and UKMET were showing something awesome.

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[jshetley]

I've told many people that want to learn to forecast in this area.... learn the wedge. It will humble you in a heart beat.

That's probably what gives our NWS most of the problems that they have from Sept to March. It's position can mean so much difference in the weather you have, and it can be a sharp boundary too, with 20 degrees or more difference over 5-10 miles. As for when one breaks, it's almost impossible to get that right to within 3-4 hours. 99% of the time it's here longer than forecast 

[superjames1992]

The 12z UKMET does show some front end snow for portions of NC. Also, it's a bit less amped than last night, I think. I am not sure how it fares in CAD situations.

[Cheeznado]

New Euro identical to the last run thru 60.

If it was the Euro alone in being suppressed/colder and all other models were stronger cutters, I bet a lot of folks here would be saying how great the Euro is. You have to take what you want to happen out of the equation. There is NO way that the Euro, with this consistency this close to the event will be massively wrong. Somewhat wrong- maybe. But now that the GGEM which so many were hugging yesterday is trending north, that makes me believe the Euro more. Sorry, that the way it is likely to happen.

[Bsudweather]

You just can't toss the UKMET and Euro when they are showing something similar. I want something wintry as much as the next guy. But them locking into something together warrants attention. Doesn't mean they are right but they can't be tossed. We would toss the Gfs and CMC in a heartbeat if the Euro and UKMET were showing something awesome.

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Imo its too late to watch for changes in those models. It leans more now on what the short range shows. So even if Euro and UK change now it really means nothing.

[mackerel_sky]

Imo its too late to watch for changes in those models. It leans more now on what the short range shows. So even if Euro and UK change now it really means nothing.

Yeah, have seen many times people looking at GFS and Euro runs , basically 12 hours ahead of storm time, even at now casting times! Use the hi res, short term models now! We are close to only 24-30 hours from start time, by some models estimates!

[franklin NCwx]

Euro is amped and way west! Rain for Pittsburgh.

[burrel2]

The 12z UKMET does show some front end snow for portions of NC. Also, it's a bit less amped than last night, I think. I am not sure how it fares in CAD situations.

 

I posted this last night,

 

Here is what the Ukmet showed for last year's Ice storm 42 hours out. The surface low wound up skirting south of the wedge during the event. I'm not saying that's what is gonna happen with this event, but it's at the very least a possibility.  

[superjames1992]

The Euro still shows roughly 1-3" of snow for N NC before the storm cuts up the Apps and we torch.

And, thanks Burrel. Good find.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Euro is amped and way west! Rain for Pittsburgh.

Interesting, Mid Atlantic forum claiming it's east.

[Bsudweather]

I can't believe people hug the Euro regardless what it shows just because it's "King" alot of short range that's would kick its butt in CAD setups. Euro does not do good with them and neither does gfs. Only time will tell now which is right or wrong. But I'd bet in this situation the Euro and longer range will be wrong. If it was a different setup I'd say otherwise.

[franklin NCwx]

Interesting, Mid Atlantic forum claiming it's east.

low goes from sw Virginia to North central Virginia.

[superjames1992]

Interesting, Mid Atlantic forum claiming it's east.

The operational Euro cuts from Knoxville, TN to Bluefield, WV to Charlottesville, VA to Albany, NY, FWIW. I guess it's somewhat east of last night once it gets to WV/VA (it cut through central WV last night), which is why they're saying that, but I don't think it matters for us.

[NWNC2015]

Just adding some more specific details IMO for travel purposes that I am starting to feel confident about. 

 

A lot will be burned by no snow Sunday night into the first half of Monday morning I would say Charlotte to Greensboro and maybe all the way to Asheville

 

A lot of areas won't begin as or ever maintain snow it will be a mixture likely for the above areas mentioned

 

A lot of areas will be at freezing or below at midnight Monday in the foothills

 

A lot of areas will be getting a cold ass rain including the central and southern CAD zones Tuesday morning 

[burrel2]

The euro has Columbia, SC around 40 degree's Monday morning. The Hi-res NAM and rgem have Columbia around 28 at the same time.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Looks 4 mb lower and east of the 12Z run yesterday for that time stamp.

[franklin NCwx]

Very amped compared to other globals

[Brick Tamland]

Gfs and ukmet warm quickly too. Every model goes to rain.

Some have it going over to rain a lot later than others, especially short range models. Even if it goes over to rain late in the storm, there would still be a mess on the ground for a lot of folks during the day Monday.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Very amped compared to other globals

That's why rightfully so I think it's considered an outlier and shouldn't be given much weight.

[BIG FROSTY]

I don't think there will be much movement at all with Global Models at this stage, just minor things there locked in..... We have it here 2 camps take your pic! neither can be tossed just have to wait and see.... short range models may have big adjustments from run to run..... JMHO  But what does a snowman know about the weather? #nada

[Cheeznado]

 

 

I'm surprised you speak in such absolutes.  We've all seen models change position of lows by hundreds of miles from run to run.  Everybody wants to talk about euro verification scores being the best.  That may be true at 5h in the whole Northern Hemisphere, but not sure about here locally especially with CAD set ups.  The Euro had me getting over 15" of snow a few weeks ago within 24 hours of storm.  I ended up with 4 inches of mainly sleet.  

 

Yes, models do change sometimes by hundreds of miles run to run, but that is almost always when they have already been inconsistent over the previous runs. The Euro has been very consistent, that makes it much more unlikely to be that far off.

[mackerel_sky]

I'm surprised you speak in such absolutes. We've all seen models change position of lows by hundreds of miles from run to run. Everybody wants to talk about euro verification scores being the best. That may be true at 5h in the whole Northern Hemisphere, but not sure about here locally especially with CAD set ups. The Euro had me getting over 15" of snow a few weeks ago within 24 hours of storm. I ended up with 4 inches of mainly sleet.

Yes, models do change sometimes by hundreds of miles run to run, but that is almost always when they have already been inconsistent over the previous runs. The Euro has been very consistent, that makes it much more unlikely to be that far off.

Same argument can be made for NAM, since it's been within range, very consistant

[wxduncan]

I don't think there will be much movement at all with Global Models at this stage, just minor things there locked in..... We have it here 2 camps take your pic! neither can be tossed just have to wait and see.... short range models may have big adjustments from run to run..... JMHO  But what does a snowman know about the weather? #nada

 

Which is what GSP says in there discussion time will tell one camp will be right the other will not. But there is no reason what so ever to write off the storm because of one model even if it is the euro. We have seen it wrong before just like all the other models.

[arandall]

Is there something about the inputs to the various models that's leading to the discrepancy? Trying to think agnostically here why two different patterns have emerged.

[BIG FROSTY]

 

 

 

I'm surprised you speak in such absolutes.  We've all seen models change position of lows by hundreds of miles from run to run.  Everybody wants to talk about euro verification scores being the best.  That may be true at 5h in the whole Northern Hemisphere, but not sure about here locally especially with CAD set ups.  The Euro had me getting over 15" of snow a few weeks ago within 24 hours of storm.  I ended up with 4 inches of mainly sleet.  

 

Yes, models do change sometimes by hundreds of miles run to run, but that is almost always when they have already been inconsistent over the previous runs. The Euro has been very consistent, that makes it much more unlikely to be that far off.

 

Yes on the bold!!!  it's been locked in on LP movement, may be washing CAD out too quick? Either way going to be interesting to see the out come! Let's see if it's  KING in CAD areas.... lol